JERUSALEM — Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei, who has not appeared publicly since a U.S.-Israeli airstrike killed his father, has claimed that the United States is nearing collapse after Republicans lost ground in the midterm elections. The White House and several Iran specialists argue, however, that President Donald Trump remains in a strong position against the weakened Iranian regime.
Trump’s approach to Iran over the next two years could shape his legacy and influence the future of the Middle East. Some experts say further military action could weaken or remove the Islamic Republic, which has long been accused of sponsoring terrorism in the region.
In a post on X after the election, Khamenei wrote that “the process of the US’s collapse has accelerated.” His comments were met with forceful responses from the White House and analysts who study Iran.
A White House spokesperson said the U.S. has a strong position, citing its control of the Strait of Hormuz and Iran’s struggling economy. The spokesperson said Iran had been badly weakened and that events could proceed “the easy way or the hard way,” adding that Trump would act in the country’s interests. The spokesperson also said only Trump knows what he will do, or when.
Iran has escalated its anti-American and anti-Western rhetoric in recent days. On Nov. 4, the anniversary of the 1979 takeover of the U.S. Embassy in Tehran and the seizure of its staff, the regime displayed an exhibit depicting Trump in a cage and staging a mock execution.
Iranian state media also released an AI-generated video in which a spokesperson for the country’s armed forces threatened European countries. The spokesperson said Iran did not target innocent people and did not consider Europe an enemy, but warned that any European assistance to the United States in harming Iranian civilians would make that country a target. The video showed military sites in France, Germany and Britain.
Navid Mohebbi, a former Persian-language media analyst at the State Department, said Iranian officials have portrayed the election as a political defeat for Trump, alongside what they describe as victories on the battlefield and in the Strait of Hormuz. Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, Mohebbi said, framed the results as evidence that Americans rejected the war.
Mohebbi described the messaging as part of a wider effort to convince Americans that confronting Iran carries an overwhelming political cost. He said available evidence does not show that the conflict alone caused Republican losses: in national exit polls, just 4% of voters named foreign policy as the most important issue facing the country.
For some Iran observers, the question is whether Trump should press ahead and “finish the job” against the Islamic Republic, which has ruled for 47 years. Mohebbi said the threats posed by the regime remain, and argued that the nuclear issue is unresolved. Iran’s stockpile of highly enriched uranium has not been fully accounted for through international monitoring, he said, and the country retains the capacity to rebuild parts of its ballistic missile program. He added that Tehran’s strategic posture and hostility toward the U.S. and its regional allies have not fundamentally changed.
Simone Ledeen, a former Pentagon official, has also argued that the Islamic Republic needs to end, saying its behavior is unlikely to change. She has called for support for people inside Iran while opposing the deployment of U.S. ground troops.
Some commentators have praised Trump for confronting Iran’s nuclear program rather than leaving the issue for a later administration. Ben Shapiro called Operation Epic Fury the bravest foreign policy decision of his lifetime. In an interview in March, he said Trump’s actions could significantly alter America’s role in the world for decades, perhaps even longer.
Mohebbi cautioned that Tehran may be trying to outlast the Trump administration. Even if the two sides reached a strong agreement now, he said, Iran’s leaders would likely regard it as temporary rather than a lasting shift in policy. He believes the regime expects a future Democratic administration to avoid military action, and could become more defiant if it concludes that force is no longer a realistic option.
Another view is that Israel should take the lead in military action against Iran, with Washington offering support while limiting its own involvement. Mardo Soghom, an Iran specialist, said Tehran has long hoped to withstand U.S. pressure until Trump leaves office. He argued that the U.S. should back Israel, maintain its blockade of Iran and help keep Gulf shipping routes open, while avoiding sustained attacks except against exceptionally dangerous, well-protected targets such as nuclear sites.
Soghom said Iranian state radio was celebrating the Democratic victories. He warned that the election result could encourage Tehran to resist compromise with the Trump administration and any future Democratic government. He also recalled that the 1979 embassy seizure began after Iran’s new Islamic government encouraged its supporters to take over the U.S. mission.
Jason Brodsky, policy director at United Against Nuclear Iran, said Tehran views the midterm losses as a political price imposed on Trump for launching Operation Epic Fury. Iran hopes the results will discourage this and future administrations from taking military action over its aggression and support for terrorism, he said. Still, Brodsky added, Iranian officials are likely wary of Trump’s unpredictability and the more than two years he has left in office.
Brodsky said Congress may raise objections or make operations more difficult, but its ability to constrain the executive branch is limited without a veto-proof majority. He pointed to the 2006 midterms, when President George W. Bush authorized a troop surge in Iraq despite strong anti-war sentiment.
