JERUSALEM — Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei, who has not appeared publicly in months, said the United States was moving toward collapse after Republicans lost ground in the midterm elections. The White House and several Iran specialists, however, argue that President Trump remains in a strong position to pressure what is left of the Iranian regime.
Trump’s approach to Iran over the next two years could shape his foreign-policy legacy and influence the future of the Middle East, analysts say. Some believe further military action may be needed to weaken or remove the Islamic Republic, which has long been accused of supporting militant groups across the region.
Khamenei has not been seen in public since a U.S.-Israeli airstrike killed his father, former Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, and other family members. After the Republican losses, he posted that the United States’ decline was accelerating.
A White House spokesperson said the U.S. has a strong position, pointing to its control of the Strait of Hormuz and Iran’s struggling economy. The spokesperson said Iran had been severely weakened and that Trump could choose either a less difficult or more forceful course. The president, they added, would decide what was best for the country and when to act.
Iran has stepped up its anti-American and anti-Western messaging in recent days. On Nov. 4, the anniversary of the 1979 seizure of the U.S. Embassy in Tehran and the taking of its staff hostage, the country displayed a mock execution scene depicting Trump inside a cage.
Iranian state media also released an AI-generated video in which a military spokesperson warned European countries against helping the United States. The spokesperson said Iran did not target innocent people, but would consider any country assisting attacks on Iranian civilians an enemy. The video showed military sites in France, Germany and Britain.
Navid Mohebbi, a former Persian-language media analyst at the State Department, said senior Iranian officials have portrayed the election results as a political defeat for Trump. Iran’s Supreme National Security Council secretary, Mohsen Rezaei, claimed Tehran had prevailed not only on the battlefield and in the Strait of Hormuz, but also in Washington. Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, Mohebbi said, cast the results as evidence that Americans opposed the war.
Mohebbi described the claims as part of a wider effort to shape public opinion. Tehran and regime supporters in the United States, he said, are promoting the idea that confronting Iran carries an unacceptable political cost. But he said polling did not show that the conflict alone drove the Republican losses: just 4% of voters identified foreign policy as the country’s most important issue.
For some Iran watchers, the question is whether Trump should press ahead and try to bring the Islamic Republic’s rule to an end. Mohebbi said the threats posed by the government remain unresolved. Iran’s stockpile of highly enriched uranium has not been fully accounted for through international monitoring, he said, and the country could rebuild parts of its ballistic missile program. Its broader hostility toward the United States and regional allies, he added, has not fundamentally changed.
Former Pentagon official Simone Ledeen has also argued that the Islamic Republic needs to end and is unlikely to change its conduct. She supports helping Iranians inside the country, while opposing the deployment of U.S. ground troops.
Some commentators have praised Trump for confronting Iran’s nuclear program rather than leaving the issue for a future administration. Ben Shapiro called the military campaign against Iran an exceptionally courageous foreign-policy decision, saying it could have lasting consequences for America’s role in the world.
Mohebbi cautioned that Tehran may be trying to outlast the Trump administration. Even a strong agreement reached now could be viewed by Iranian leaders as temporary, he said. They may expect a future Democratic administration to avoid military action, and could become more defiant once they believe the threat of force has passed.
Others favor leaving Israel to carry out most military operations against Iran. Mardo Soghom, an Iran specialist who studies state media, said Tehran had hoped to endure U.S. pressure for another two years and now believes the election results may help it do so.
Soghom argued that Washington should support Israel while maintaining pressure on Iran and keeping shipping routes through the Persian Gulf open. He said the United States should avoid sustained attacks, apart from potentially striking especially dangerous, heavily protected targets such as nuclear facilities.
Soghom said Iranian state radio was celebrating the Democrats’ election gains. He warned that the results could make Tehran less willing to compromise with the Trump administration or a future Democratic government. The anniversary of the U.S. Embassy seizure, he added, was a reminder of the regime’s history of confrontation.
Jason Brodsky, policy director at United Against Nuclear Iran, said Iranian officials see the election results as evidence that the military campaign has imposed a political cost on Trump. Tehran may hope that cost will deter this and future administrations from taking military action over Iran’s conduct, he said.
Still, Brodsky noted that presidents retain substantial authority over foreign policy even after midterm setbacks. Trump has been unpredictable, he said, and more than two years remain in his term—enough time for the United States to continue damaging Iran’s capabilities.
Congress can raise objections and complicate military decisions, Brodsky said, but its ability to constrain the executive branch is limited without enough votes to override a presidential veto. He pointed to the 2006 midterms: despite strong anti-war sentiment, President George W. Bush went ahead with a troop surge in Iraq.
