Recently, President Trump shared a significant update on Truth Social, stating that he has directed the Commerce Department to initiate a more accurate census process, potentially based on data from the 2024 presidential election using “modern facts and numbers.”
He emphasized, “People who are illegal in our country will not be counted in the census.”
There’s some uncertainty about what “modern facts and numbers” specifically refer to in shaping the country’s demographics, but Trump’s intention to exclude undocumented individuals could notably alter the statistics.
This proposal is likely to attract considerable attention, and it’s no surprise considering the criticisms it might draw from Democrats, who may view it as improper or even racist.
Still, there’s a point to be made—Trump raises a valid concern that the census could use serious improvements, particularly in excluding undocumented residents. The 2020 census results were rather perplexing. Even the Census Bureau acknowledged that some states were overcounted while others were undercounted. The census occurred during the pandemic, which, I think, may have undermined its accuracy and efficiency.
This issue of representation is especially relevant today with political tensions in Texas. Democrats have fled to more liberal cities, aiming to avoid voting on a controversial new political map that could give five extra congressional seats to state Republicans.
Many of these fleeing Democrats have taken refuge in Chicago, courtesy of Illinois Governor J.B. Pritzker, who seems to be eyeing a presidential run in 2028.
Interestingly, Pritzker is not alone in criticizing the current political landscape. As noted by Rich Lowry from National Review, gerrymandering is a significant issue, with one district structure highlighting the oddities of political representation.
For instance, in 2022, Republican candidates in Illinois garnered nearly 44% of the popular vote but only managed to win 18% of the congressional seats. California faces a similar predicament, as a substantial portion of its votes favor Republicans, yet they receive a disproportionately low number of seats in Congress. If the Texas Republicans push their new map through, it could draw parallels to California’s skewed representation.
Democrats in other states have hinted at retaliatory actions against Texas’ redistricting maneuvers, but jurisdictions like California have been maximizing their advantages for some time now. Recently, Republicans have maintained control over numerous state governments, while Democrats have far fewer strongholds.
With Texas setting the stage, discussions of similar redistricting efforts are cropping up in Nebraska and Indiana, with Vice President JD Vance reportedly meeting with local GOP officials to advocate for these changes.
Redistricting typically aligns with the census, which occurs every decade. Yet, given the flaws in the 2020 count, some leaders argue a re-evaluation of maps is necessary. Notably, six of the eight overcounted states lean Democratic, and troublingly, states haven’t accurately counted key populations like New York and Florida.
The implications are significant. As Republicans point out, miscounts could mean less representation, fewer electoral votes, and diminished federal funds. With the current narrow margins in the House, these census inaccuracies could escalate the intensifying conflicts fueled by Texas politics.
Looking ahead, Trump’s push to exclude undocumented residents from the census could lead to further political shifts. It raises the question of fairness in representation: why should non-citizens—a group that lacks voting rights—have a voice in Congress? The previous administration took steps to introduce citizenship questions in the census, but legal challenges halted that effort.
Opponents claimed that adding such a question would deter undocumented individuals from participating, risking state resources and representation for Democratic-leaning areas. However, it’s worth noting that the Census Bureau continuously gathers information on citizenship through other surveys.
Including undocumented individuals in the census arguably encourages states to adopt unfavorable policies for citizens. High taxes and restrictions often drive residents away, yet states still retain influence when accommodating significant non-citizen populations. The census plays a crucial role under the Constitution, which dictates that representation be based on the population count—historically excluding certain groups like Native Americans.
In essence, Trump’s stance on excluding undocumented individuals from the census seems to resonate with a broader call for an accurate representation that aligns with citizenship status.
