Recent evaluations indicate that Iran’s significant leverage over the U.S. is diminishing. The Iranian regime has previously used its influence over the critical Strait of Hormuz to resist the Trump administration’s calls for a peace agreement that favors U.S. interests.
U.S. officials have shared insights suggesting they now hold an advantage in the contest for control of the strait, potentially signaling a reduction in military activity.
In a conversation with Axios, Trump stated, “That sucker is open. The Iranian response is very mild. They don’t want us to go back at them. That’s the whole ball game. The rest doesn’t matter.”
The push to reopen the strait, despite Iranian threats, intensified following the breakdown of peace negotiations in July.
Reportedly, the U.S. military has taken steps to assist in transporting about 10 million barrels of oil daily through a southern channel adjacent to Oman. Although this volume is around half of what was previously transported, it still marks a notable increase and benefits the U.S. efforts.
Further, a recent two-week bombing campaign has reportedly hindered Iran’s capability to target tankers. Additionally, a mine-sweeping operation by the U.S. military, along with support from the United Arab Emirates, has further strengthened Trump’s position.
The commander of CENTCOM, Admiral Brad Cooper, announced that they have achieved a key goal in their mission to reclaim control of the strait from Iran. “Internationally recognized sea routes in the strait are free of Iranian sea mines. Bottom line: Today international shipping lanes are open and momentum is building,” he explained in a video statement.
While there remains some skepticism regarding the official count of oil being transported, the Axios report highlights multiple indicators that the U.S. is making strides against Iran.
Trump has maintained that the ultimate aim of this operation is to prevent the Iranian regime from acquiring nuclear weapons. He asserted on social media, “I don’t want to meet, they do. In fact, they are begging to make a deal.”
In contrast, Mohsen Rezaee, the secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, refuted these claims. He asserted that negotiations to permit the southern channel near Oman were in progress, with the regime preparing a list of demands for a peace agreement.
Before military operations commenced, Brent crude oil prices hovered around $72 a barrel but surged above $111 at their peak in April, opening just below $90 on Thursday. Notably, around 20% of the world’s oil trade transits through the Strait of Hormuz.
Joint military strikes by the U.S. and Israel against Iran commenced six months ago on February 28.
