After long threatening to halt important financial support for Ukraine's war efforts, President Trump is reportedly reportedly reportedly I agree Trade agreement with President Volodymyr Zelenksy: Signs some of the country's undeveloped rare earth mineral wealth to prevent Washington from cutting off support.
Reflecting one of the few priorities most Democrats and Republicans share, Trump recognizes the need to extract important US supply chains from China. control Almost 60% of rare earth mining and 90% of processing in the world. But putting aside the implications of Trump's indifference towards protecting European democracy, the deal sets a terrible strategic precedent.
Washington lacks leverage to strong farms or sweet stories.
Trump's preferred trade negotiation method is to identify where the country's relationship with the US is paramount and where it is crucial to those pressure points. This strategy may have only achieved results in Ukraine as the US is crucial to its continued presence. Zelensky repetition In February, Ukraine said it had “low chances to survive without [the] US support. ”
However, the United States does not play this role in a country that actually controls the key mineral supply chains that are key to its technology and industrial foundations. After China, this group is mostly Non-identical He often says he is hedging between Beijing and Washington. These countries include cobalt– The Democratic Republic of Congo andLithium triangle“Chile, Argentina, Bolivia.
In particular, China is investing in the US in these specific industries. Chinese companies My own 14 of the top 19 Congo cobalt and copper mines poured in Billions For the South American Lithium Project.
When properly managed, mineral resources form the basis for the large-scale economic expansion of these countries. For example, global demand for lithium from the battery sector alone is I'll multiply Up to 14 times by 2040. Will existing US trade or financial support outweigh its great potential long-term benefits if it is cut off now?
Although Trump's first blanket flea for all foreign aid was temporarily Pausedhis administration will resolve to pressure others on more obedient relationships and will undoubtedly continue to investigate opportunities to cut foreign spending.
However, this process reveals key weaknesses in Trump's powerful arming model. It is the expectations of other countries, or lack of such policies, for the continuity of other countries' policies. The White House clearly lacks complete control over US aid spending, so Trump may not be able to maintain the economic pressure he threatens.
In an era when the incumbent party lost its past three presidential elections and legislative majority Very thinand major fluctuations in US foreign policy are also inevitable. World leaders risk appear weak and shortsighted to sign away mineral wealth in exchange for trade conditions and aid programs that can be restored anyway under the subsequent US administration.
Therefore, for a country that will not collapse immediately without US security assistance, Trump will struggle to find threats that outweigh the economic potential lost by reducing the US into mineral wealth.
The general story is that China is superior to the US in these non-Western resource markets due to political in-intervention. In an interview in July 2024, President Felix Zisekede, President of the Democratic Republic of the Congo Due to China's growth in Africa Compared to our and our European competitors, there is less “arrage” in its diplomatic approach. In theory, this is common for Trump. I praise it The dictator is lightly pursuing the global enforcement of democratic values.
However, this story is often pushed out by Beijing itself, distracting from the fact that China's rare earth dominance simply reflects its strong track record and financial commitment. With the aim of countering the commodity-led influence held by Chinese oil producers, China, It's begun Global “purchases” of rare earths and important minerals in the 1990s.
Thirty years later, Beijing and its businesses are still willing to take greater risks to protect these vast market share. In low- and middle-income countries, Chinese organizations guarantee Repayment due to a higher proportion of government loans in the mineral sector, which is more important than any other sector.
Of course, these risks make the stomach easier because there is a less profit-driven industrial base. Without this luxury, the US simply It's missing Equivalent tolerances for high upfront investment costs and delays in return on investment.
Such patience is essential to infamous endurance Long time A timeline between resource discovery and revenue production operations. After all, this is why mineral-rich countries want deep foreign pockets and expertise in the first place. This is also why adjustments in diplomatic rhetoric cannot be band-aided against the inferior US performance.
We need to rethink how the US will secure a critical mineral supply chain. However, it is dangerous to interpret Kiev's enthusiasm (or rather, despair) as a sign that Washington will enter into subsequent negotiations from a similar position of strength.
There are no wider stick or carrot-based shortcuts to enhance America's control over important foreign mineral supply chains. The only option this leaves us with is to significantly expand the financial support that the American industry needs to become more competitive in non-aligned global markets.
Unfortunately, this is the reality that Trump is likely to ignore him if he is encouraged by his red success in Ukraine.
Zach Glass is a geopolitical analyst focusing on US-China competition and key minerals. He is based in Washington, DC.
