Despite months of campaigning, new polls show Trump leading Biden in five key battleground states.
Good morning, readers of the US Politics Blog. The Biden campaign woke up this morning to some disturbing news. At that time, a major opinion poll was released, donald trump still in the lead joe biden In five of the six battleground states that will be important in deciding the November election. Perhaps the most worrying part is that poll The New York Times, Siena College, and the Philadelphia Inquirer said that while this is news, it’s not entirely new. A months-long investigation found that the president is trailing his predecessor in states he carried four years ago. It’s worth noting in this case that the presidential campaign is currently well underway, with Biden campaigning across the United States in recent weeks and rebuilding the coalition that put Biden in the White House in 2020. His allies are spending millions of dollars on advertising aimed at Despite his efforts, polls show his support has not increased significantly.
Perhaps more worrying for Mr. Biden’s prospects are the findings about the groups of voters who are hostile to him. Trump’s approval rating among black voters, a reliable Democratic voting bloc, is 20%, the highest for a Republican presidential candidate in decades. Both men also have high approval ratings among Hispanic voters and 18- to 29-year-olds, a demographic in which Biden won a majority in 2020. We’ll keep you posted on what else the poll reveals and how Biden’s supporters perceive it. That’s later.
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Garin argues that the poll clashes with other surveys that found Biden is gaining support – and that it is simply too early to tell how the election will shake out. Here are his thoughts:
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The only consistency in recent public polls is inconsistency. These results need to be weighed against the 30-plus polls that show Biden up and gaining – which is exactly why drawing broad conclusions about the race based on results from one poll is a mistake. The reality is that many voters are not paying close attention to the election and have not started making up their minds — a dynamic also reflected in today’s poll. These voters will decide this election and only the Biden campaign is doing the work to win them over.
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The New York Times, Siena College and the Philadelphia Inquirer poll released today found that one of the reasons why Joe Biden is lagging in support among groups who backed him in 2020 is his handling of Israel’s invasion of Gaza. The survey also found a more surprising explanation for why many voters do not want another four years of Biden: a desire for change in the United States – which they do not believe the president can bring.
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Biden’s handling of the conflict in Gaza, or his foreign policy more broadly, was the reason cited by 13% of those who voted for him in 2020 but do not plan to do so again this year, the poll found. Of that group, only 17% called themselves sympathetic to Israel. That finding underscores the tensions among Democrats and their supporters over the president’s approach to the war, amid concerns of excessive civilian deaths.
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The poll also found a substantial desire for change in the country, and a belief that Donald Trump was more likely to deliver it. A majority of respondents backed making changes in America, with 14% saying the system needs “to be torn down entirely”, and 55% backing “major changes”. Trump would bring more change the survey finds, although voters are split over whether that would be good or bad. But unlike Biden’s detractors over Gaza, these voters are moderate or conservative leaning, underscoring the breadth of the groups the president may have to win back to triumph in November.
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Good morning, US politics blog readers. The Biden campaign woke up to some disquieting news this morning, when a major poll was released showing that Donald Trump still leads Joe Biden in five of the six swing states that will be crucial to deciding the November election. Perhaps the most concerning part about the poll from the New York Times, Siena College and the Philadelphia Inquirer was that while it was news, it was not exactly new – surveys have for months found the president trailing his predecessor in states he carried four years ago. What’s notable about this one is that the presidential campaign is now well underway, with Biden campaigning across the country in recent weeks, and his allies spending millions on advertisements intended to rebuild the coalition that elected him to the White House in 2020. Yet despite all that effort, the poll does not show much of an increase in his support.
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Perhaps more worrying for Biden’s prospects is what the survey says about the voting groups that are turning against him. While Black voters have been a reliable Democratic voting bloc, Trump’s support among them is 20%, the highest for a Republican presidential candidate in decades. The two men are also tied in support among Hispanic voters and 18-29-year-olds, groups that Biden won majorities of in 2020. We’ll tell you more about what else this poll has to say – and how Biden’s supporters are taking it – later on.
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Here’s what else is going on:
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Trump’s trial on business fraud charges continues in Manhattan, with the prosecution’s star witness Michael Cohen expected to take the stand. Follow our live coverage here.
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Bob Menendez, New Jersey’s Democratic senator, goes on trial today on a raft of corruption charges connected to allegedly using his position to aid the governments of Egypt and Qatar.
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Despite Biden’s worrying poll numbers, the same survey finds Democratic candidates leading in races that will decide control of the Senate.
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important events
Democratic pollster says there are too many ‘inconsistencies’ to draw conclusions about rematch between Biden and Trump
joe biden‘s campaign reached out to Democratic pollsters to share their thoughts. Jeff Garin About this morning’s survey find the president following donald trump In some swing states.
Garin argues that the poll contradicts other polls that have found Biden gaining support and that it is too early to tell how the election will pan out. Here are his thoughts:
The only thing consistent in recent polls is inconsistency. These results need to be weighed against more than 30 polls showing Biden in the lead. That’s why it’s a mistake to draw broad conclusions about an election campaign based on the results of a single poll. The reality is that many voters are not paying close attention to the election and have not begun to make up their minds. This dynamic is reflected in today’s opinion polls. These voters will decide this election, and only the Biden campaign is making an effort to convince them.
This morning’s polls highlight just how formidable a challenge Donald Trump is to Joe Biden, with less than six months until the November 5 election. But as the Guardian’s David Smith has reported, the political climate is historically volatile, and much can change in the months leading up to the polls.
“You know what I hate?” Donald Trump asked Wednesday night in Freeland, Michigan. “When these people go on TV, experts, you know, great experts who have done nothing their whole lives, say, ‘You know, there are two very unpopular candidates. There’s Biden, and there’s Trump. They’re very unpopular.”
Against the backdrop of a plane with the word “Trump” written in giant gold letters and a crowd of enthusiastic fans wearing “Make America Great Again (Maga)” regalia, the former U.S. president went a little overboard. I protested. “I’m not unpopular!”
Polls are mixed, showing Trump’s approval ratings are low due to voters’ concerns about his stance on abortion, his four criminal cases and the threat he poses to constitutional democracy. There is.Fortunately for the Republican presidential nominee, Biden problems with his own work performance; The conversation centered on inflation, immigration, and his response to the war in Gaza.
This is called the resistance force against a moving object. Only a fool would bet with confidence on the outcome of the first presidential rematch in nearly 70 years, six months after one of the most consequential elections in American history.
larry jacobs“Once you start piling up the cases against Biden, it’s almost impossible to imagine Biden winning,” said the director of the Center for Politics and Governance Studies at the University of Minnesota. The economy appears to be in decline due to high inflation. The Democratic coalition is showing signs of fraying, with unprecedented protests on college campuses, the arrest of young people, and backlash from Arab Americans over Gaza.
“When you put it all together, it becomes, how can Biden win? And when you look at Trump, how can a candidate who openly defies the will of the voters win? It’s just a matter of understanding It’s a combination of options that are impossible.”
Gaza war, US desire for change weighs on Biden, poll finds
New York Times, Siena College, Philadelphia Inquirer Poll released today It turns out that one of the reasons is joe biden Among the groups that supported him in 2020, support has lagged behind his response to Israel’s invasion of Gaza. The survey also found an even more surprising explanation for why many voters don’t want another four years of Biden. It’s because they want to bring about change in America, and they don’t believe the president can bring it about.
The poll found that 13% of people who voted for Biden in 2020 but do not plan to vote again this year cited Biden’s handling of the Gaza conflict or broader foreign policy as the reason. Only 17% of this group called themselves sympathetic to Israel. The findings underscore growing tensions between Democrats and their allies over the president’s approach to the war amid concerns about excessive civilian deaths.
The poll also found that there is a strong desire for change in this country and a belief that: donald trump It is more likely that it will be delivered. A majority of respondents support change in America, with 14% saying the system needs to be “completely abolished” and 55% supporting “significant change.” Polls show that President Trump will bring about more changes, but voters are divided on whether those changes are good or bad. But unlike Biden’s critics on Gaza, these voters are moderates or conservatives, underscoring the breadth of demographics the president must appeal to in order to regain his November victory. There is.
Despite months of campaigning, new polls show Trump leading Biden in five key battleground states.
Good morning, readers of the US Politics Blog. The Biden campaign woke up this morning to some disturbing news. At that time, a major opinion poll was released, donald trump still in the lead joe biden In five of the six battleground states that will be important in deciding the November election. Perhaps the most worrying part is that poll The New York Times, Siena College, and the Philadelphia Inquirer said that while this is news, it’s not entirely new. A months-long investigation found that the president is trailing his predecessor in states he carried four years ago. It’s worth noting in this case that the presidential campaign is currently well underway, with Biden campaigning across the United States in recent weeks and rebuilding the coalition that put Biden in the White House in 2020. His allies are spending millions of dollars on advertising aimed at Despite his efforts, polls show his support has not increased significantly.
Perhaps more worrying for Mr. Biden’s prospects are the findings about the groups of voters who are hostile to him. Trump’s approval rating among black voters, a reliable Democratic voting bloc, is 20%, the highest for a Republican presidential candidate in decades. Both men also have high approval ratings among Hispanic voters and 18- to 29-year-olds, a demographic in which Biden won a majority in 2020. We’ll keep you posted on what else the poll reveals and how Biden’s supporters perceive it. That’s later.
Here’s what else is going on:
-
Trump’s trial Prosecutor’s star witness appears in Manhattan business fraud charges michael coen It is expected that he will take a stand. Follow the live coverage here.
-
bob menendeza Democratic senator from New Jersey, goes on trial today on numerous corruption charges related to allegations that he used his position to support the governments of Egypt and Qatar.
-
Despite Biden’s concerns poll numbers, What the same survey revealed The Democratic candidate is leading the race to determine control of the Senate.
