Trump looks for knockout blow to rivals in Iowa

Former President Trump won a landslide in Iowa on Monday and is aiming for an early upset victory in the Republican primary.

Trump hasn't been shy about setting high expectations in the Hawkeye State, where he leads his closest rival by 36 points, according to The Hill/Decision Desk polling average.

A close finish could energize the rival camp. But a big double-digit victory in Iowa would give President Trump a boost heading into New Hampshire next week. Strategists and Trump supporters believe the former president could effectively be eliminated with another big victory.

“There's always the possibility that the lead could shrink or the lead could change,” Faith and Freedom Coalition Chairman Ralph Reed said on a call with reporters. “But at least from my conversations with people on the ground, we don't see anything like the dramatic changes that occurred from, say, mid-October to early December in 2016. [Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas)] To jump to the top. Let's see what happens on caucus night. ”

Iowa is particularly important to Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R), who has poured resources into Florida and spent months interviewing voters in all 99 counties with the support of Gov. Kim Reynolds (R). It is a state. He has been trying to live up to expectations in recent weeks, but strategists have suggested that failing to finish second would be catastrophic for Florida's governor.

Meanwhile, former United Nations Ambassador Nikki Haley is reducing her investment in Iowa and pinning her hopes on New Hampshire instead. He has been gaining approval in the Granite State, where Mr. Trump's support has declined slightly in recent months, according to the latest polls.

A strong showing in Iowa could give Trump another win in New Hampshire, but Haley's better-than-expected performance in particular could portend a tougher race in the coming days.

“The reality is that the primary voters in Iowa and New Hampshire are so different that a win in both would give them solid control and really complete dominance over the Republican Party,” said Republican strategist Brian Seichik. “If President Trump wins, this will be over,'' he said. Win the first two states.

Mr. Trump heads into Monday's caucuses in a much stronger position than he was in 2016, when he finished second to Mr. Cruz.

Mr. Trump and his team were political neophytes in 2016, with little familiarity with the caucus process or how to turn rally enthusiasm into committed caucus attendees.

This cycle, Trump and his campaign have not only become more organized on the ground in Iowa, but also gained support from the type of evangelicals who make up a large portion of Iowa voters, and have increased their 2016 party membership. He helped Mr. Cruz win the rally.

Steve Scheffler, a Republican National Committee member from Iowa, said caucusgoers “knew what Donald Trump did” but that Trump's rivals were not clear on policies important to evangelicals. He said he hasn't yet claimed he can do better.

December Des Moines Register Poll A poll conducted by J. Ann Selzer, considered a representative pollster in Iowa, showed Trump's approval rating at 51%. In a sign of his superiority, 70 percent of his supporters said they were determined to support him. By contrast, 34 percent of Haley supporters and 30 percent of DeSantis supporters said they were determined to support those candidates, respectively.

“Nobody in modern times has actually won by more than 12 points in a contested primary leading up to caucus night, and no one has ever won by more than 50 percent,” said Jason Miller, a senior adviser to President Trump. He said in an interview with The Hill. on NewsNation.” “So I believe we have a very good relationship with President Trump and I believe we will win. But, you know, I'm going to win.”

If Mr. Trump wins Iowa by a narrower-than-expected margin, it could signal a more competitive primary than expected, especially if voters favor one option. Strategists said Trump's margin of victory provides a window into his rival's future viability.

Republican strategist Matt Makowiak predicted on Monday that Trump would win the state, but said one of the key questions in the caucuses would be whether the former president's approval rating would cross the 50% line. .

“If you look at those numbers, you can see whether half of the people in the room were willing to vote for someone other than Trump, because if this were a head-to-head battle elsewhere, it would ultimately Because we need it,” Makowiak said.

Trump's strong position in Iowa was on display Wednesday night during his appearance at a Fox News town hall in Des Moines. Mr. Trump enjoyed a friendly audience, with the majority of those he questioned saying they were planning a caucus for the former president, and attendees frequently applauded Mr. Trump's answers.

At the same time, Haley and DeSantis are on stage for an upcoming CNN debate in which both candidates, hoping to unseat Trump from the nomination, will attack the former president. I spent almost no time on it.

CNN's hosts that night asked several questions related to the former president, including questions about President Trump's actions on January 6, 2021 and whether Trump is qualified to serve as president again. It also included questions about whether or not — but Ms. Haley and Ms. DeSantis mainly focused on each question. Others exchange insults and false accusations.

Mr. Trump's rivals have had to walk a fine line between campaigning against the former president and trying not to alienate supporters who would try to cut into Mr. Trump's lead. .

Haley warned in the debate that there would be “chaos” if Trump wins four more years, and DeSantis said Trump is running “to pursue his own issues rather than the country's.” he claimed. They also criticized the disappearance of the front-runner, who has skipped all party debates so far this cycle.

But President Trump's move to postpone a showdown with his rival does not appear to have had a negative impact on his campaign.

“I don't think his lack of presence on the debate stage has mattered one bit throughout this campaign,” said Jimmy Centers, an Iowa-based Republican strategist.

“Maybe they landed a few jabs at the former president, but it meant nothing. What did the most damage was the body blows and uppercuts they gave each other,” he said. talked about Haley and DeSantis on the Iowa stage, but argued that the damage was likely nominal.

President Trump will be in Iowa on Monday for caucuses, but will soon turn his attention to New Hampshire and head to the Granite State on Tuesday for rallies ahead of the Jan. 23 primary.

New Hampshire will be a different test for Trump because it is a more liberal state that allows independents to vote in party primaries.

“I don't think any candidate in modern times has won both Iowa and New Hampshire,” Faith and Freedom Chairman Reed said. “What I want to tell you is that this issue is not over yet, and the nomination process is likely to be a marathon, not a sprint. And if any of these first three states If we end up with a shocking result, we'll at least be going to Super Tuesday, if not much more.”