UKRAINE LOSING FAITH: Last week, a Cabinet meeting highlighted growing anxieties in Ukraine regarding the Trump administration’s support. Special envoy Steve Witkoff remarked about “lots of good things” emerging from negotiations in Abu Dhabi, suggesting that “the Russians are doing things maybe that people wouldn’t give them the credit for doing.”
“What good things?” questioned “Kate from Kharkiv” on X. “Is it Russia bombing a passenger train, annihilating people, or forcing mothers with newborns to leap from trains in fear?” She furiously pointed out the humanitarian crisis in Kyiv, with its elderly freezing without help due to power outages.
Witkoff’s comments came as Trump announced he’d “personally asked” President Vladimir Putin “not to fire into Kyiv and various towns for a week,” to which Putin agreed. It was an attempt, perhaps misguided, to protect Ukraine’s energy infrastructure amid the bitter cold. But, as it turned out, the promise was much less than it seemed.
This so-called “pause” lasted just a few days. While Kyiv experienced a temporary halt in bombings, other cities faced relentless attacks, including strikes on logistics centers and civilians, notably hitting a maternity hospital and a bus transporting miners.
ZELENSKY: PEACE TALKS DELAYED: Planned discussions involving Russia, Ukraine, and the U.S. were set to begin yesterday in Abu Dhabi, but Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky stated that they would now take place this week.
“The next trilateral meetings are set for February 4 and 5 in Abu Dhabi. Ukraine is prepared for substantial talks, aiming for a true and dignified resolution to the war,” Zelensky announced on X.
This morning, Zelensky mentioned that a technical issue which had left many without electricity was resolved, yet Russian strikes on energy infrastructure recommenced. “New attacks have occurred in frontline and border areas,” he posted. “As previously, the focus remains on undermining our logistics—primarily targeting railways.”
In Kyiv, more than 200 buildings remained without heating due to various incidents, according to Zelensky.
‘THE THREE OF US NEED TO MEET’: The U.S. has identified a significant sticking point in the negotiations: Russia’s insistence that Ukraine cede control of the eastern Donbas region, which it occupies about 80% of, though it hasn’t claimed the remaining areas.
Ukraine refuses to relinquish this strategically vital region. Zelensky noted, “Whatever happens, our defensive stance is crucial for maintaining Ukraine’s sovereignty and our capacity for diplomacy.” In a weekend video update, he expressed concerns that he had only heard indirectly about potential U.S. security guarantees being tied to Ukraine giving up the territory. “I haven’t heard that directly from Trump. Security assurances from the U.S. have conditions, but what the terms are matters,” he said.
“We need to meet—the three of us: myself, Trump, and Putin,” Zelensky asserted. “At the very least, we require direct contact with Russia’s leader. Without this, our teams struggle to negotiate on territorial matters.”
Putin has shown willingness to meet Zelensky but insists on the meeting being in Moscow, which Zelensky’s advisers argue would be imprudent. Zelensky countered that Putin could instead visit Kyiv.
THREATS, MILITARY BUILDUPS, AND NEGOTIATING OFFERS: TRUMP’S NATIONAL SECURITY PLAYBOOK
Good Monday morning! It’s Groundhog Day, and we’re back with Jamie McIntyre’s Daily on Defense. This edition is crafted by Washington Examiner National Security Senior Writer Jamie McIntyre
HAPPENING TODAY: GROUNDHOG DAY ON CAPITOL HILL: The federal government offices, including the Pentagon, are preparing for a shutdown due to funding issues, hoping for a return to normalcy promptly. This scenario isn’t new; it often plays out in similar fashion. The question remains how effectively Congress will handle this.
A significant factor this time is President Trump, who is effectively directing Republicans in Congress to accept his proposed deal with Minority Leader Sen. Chuck Schumer (D-NY). The arrangement covers the funding for over 90% of the government while maintaining the Department of Homeland Security through a brief, two-week Continuing Resolution as negotiations continue over immigration law enforcement.
“The president is steering this. It’s his decision to follow this path. He’s looking to ease tensions, so to speak,” said House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) during interviews. “These bills have passed already; it’s just a formality now.”
Johnson acknowledged the necessity of dialogues with individual Republican members in the next 24 hours. He remarked on the importance of facilitating a rule to allow a final vote on this, which he needs to achieve solely with Republican support. “I’m confident we can wrap this up by Tuesday,” he said.
HOUSE GOP DITCHING DEMOCRATS TO PASS SPENDING BILLS, LUNA REVEALS
IRAN FEARING THE WORST: Over the weekend, while moving between Washington and Mar-a-Lago, President Trump issued a warning to Iran about reaching an agreement on nuclear weapons, or potentially facing U.S. military action.
“We do have powerful ships heading that way,” Trump told reporters on Air Force One en route to a gala in Washington. “A lot is unfolding with Iran right now, and they’re currently in communication with us.”
Trump also responded to remarks from Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who threatened that any U.S. attack would trigger a “regional war.”
“Why wouldn’t he say that? Of course, he wouldn’t say anything else,” Trump noted. “But we have the most powerful ships in the world over there, and we’re hopeful for a deal. If not, we’ll see if he was right.”
“We’re not looking for conflict or to harm anyone. Yet, anyone who threatens us will face significant repercussions,” Khamenei’s account shared on X.
In a CNN interview, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi expressed the complexity of negotiations with the U.S., citing a breakdown of trust. “Genuine negotiations require a foundation of trust, unfortunately, that’s been eroded,” he stated.
“President Trump has set a clear no-nuclear-weapons policy, and we completely agree,” Araghchi added. “A good deal can happen if sanctions are lifted in return.”
MACHADO WAITING FOR HER MOMENT: Trump shared positive sentiments toward both Venezuelan opposition leader and Nobel Peace Prize recipient María Corina Machado and acting President Delcy Rodríguez.
“We’re developing a constructive relationship with Venezuela’s leaders,” Trump stated. “They’re doing well, and this is beneficial for both sides.”
Machado is waiting patiently and hoping for fair elections where she can run. “I will be president when the time is right. Yet, this decision rests with the Venezuelan people,” she commented on CBS Face the Nation. “I couldn’t run last time as Maduro feared competing against me.”
On Trump’s support for Rodríguez, Machado remained hopeful but expressed caution. “He recognizes the dangers of this regime. They all understand Rodríguez isn’t trustworthy, not even her close aides,” she said.
“I’ll focus on what he [Trump] expressed during our private discussions,” she noted.
CUBA FEELING THE HEAT: Trump mentioned high-level talks with Cuban leaders were initiated recently after his tariff threats against any nations supplying oil to Cuba.
“We’re making progress on humanitarian talks with Cuba. They’re in a dire situation and very much in need,” Trump indicated. “I believe we’ll negotiate a good deal; they have serious challenges.”
CUBAN PRESIDENT CALLS TRUMP ADMIN ‘FASCIST, CRIMINAL, AND GENOCIDAL’ OVER NEW TARIFFS
THE RUNDOWN:
Washington Examiner: Trump’s national security approach comprises threats, military buildups, and negotiation strategies.
Washington Examiner: A Cuban president critiques the Trump administration as ‘fascist, criminal, and genocidal’ due to new tariffs.
Washington Examiner: Iran warns of Trump being influenced toward conflict by misinformation.
Washington Examiner: House Republicans cut ties with Democrats to pass budget plans, as per Luna’s comments.
Washington Examiner: Key figures praise Trump’s actions during the Bovino situation.
Washington Examiner: A Slovak security adviser resigns after Epstein-related messages were disclosed.
Washington Examiner: Europe aims to lessen reliance on the U.S. for energy amidst Trump’s Greenland pressures.
Washington Examiner: Trump encounters setbacks over immigration rulings in Minnesota courts despite victories in appeals.
Washington Examiner: Jeffries insists significant reforms to the DHS are necessary before discussions to resolve the shutdown can begin.
Washington Examiner: Indications emerge that Trump may soon order strikes against Iran.
Washington Examiner: Analysts weigh the considerable risks of targeting Ayatollah Khamenei against possible benefits.
Washington Examiner: Suggestions arise for Trump to focus on regime change in Iran.
Washington Examiner: Opinions shared that Trump should address perceived UK shortcomings.
Wall Street Journal: Trump faces pivotal decisions as an essential nuclear pact with Russia concludes.
The Hill: The U.S. cautions Iran about conducting unsafe military exercises.
Air & Space Forces Magazine: The U.S. enhances air defense in the Middle East amidst potential conflict with Iran.
New York Times: Ukraine struggles to defend its entire front as Russia exploits vulnerabilities.
AP: Recent internal conflicts within NATO challenge deterrent capabilities against Russia.
AP: Bangladeshi workers in Russia find themselves sent to fight in Ukraine rather than finding employment.
The Economist: Ukrainian efforts disrupt the operations of Russia’s covert maritime fleet.
AP: The U.S. authorizes significant arms sales to Israel and Saudi Arabia.
Hudson Institute: Questions arise about an alleged Iranian strike against U.S. forces.
Daily Mail: Trump’s evolving media dynamics at the Pentagon draw scrutiny.
Air & Space Forces Magazine: A partial government shutdown significantly impacts Pentagon operations.
Breaking Defense: Trump’s threats regarding Canadian fighter jets lead to potential questions about procurement.
Defense News: An Italian official criticizes British secrecy on fighter jet developments.
New York Times: Insights into rogue Egyptian air bases amidst Sudan’s drone conflicts.
The War Zone: Progress occurs in testing the MQ-25 Stingray drone.
Task & Purpose: The U.S. invests $70 million to upgrade an airfield in Kenya linked to Somalia operations.
Air & Space Forces Magazine: The Space Force activates its new component amid homeland defense adjustments.
Air Force Times: The Department of Defense is tasked with evaluating mental health impacts on drone operators.
DefenseScoop: New appointees take charge of top technological efforts at the Pentagon.
Air & Space Forces Magazine: The Air Force patent program is offering inventions for free.
THE CALENDAR:
MONDAY | FEBRUARY 2 | GROUNDHOG DAY
12 p.m. — Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft virtual discussion: Retrench, Defend, Compete: A New U.S. Grand Strategy Toward China, featuring Charles Glaser and others.
9 a.m. 1789 Massachusetts Ave. NW — American Enterprise Institute presents “What Future After the War? Opportunities for Ukraine Security, Democracy, and Prosperity,” with Former Sen. Rob Portman (R-Oh), among others.
TUESDAY | FEBRUARY 3
8:30 a.m. 1744 R St. NW — German Marshall Fund discussion on “Wired for Influence: Inside China’s Global Tech Playbook,” with House Intelligence figures.
9:30 a.m. G-50 Dirksen — Senate Armed Services Committee hearing on “Strategic Competition in a New Treaty Environment,” featuring retired Adm. Charles Richard.
10 a.m. 310 Cannon — House hearing on “Frontline Defenders: Combatting Maritime Threats” involving the Coast Guard.
10 a.m. — Atlantic Council virtual discussion: “One Month Without Maduro: On the Ground Perspectives.”
10 a.m. Henry L. Stimson Center virtual discussion on Russo-American arms control.
11 a.m. — Middle East Institute webinar about the status of the Islamic Republic.
1 p.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. NW — CSIS dialogue about critical mineral supply security.
2:30 p.m. 419 Dirksen — Senate hearing focused on North Africa’s counterterrorism challenges.
2:30 p.m. 360 Cannon — Commission hearing to review Russia’s influence in Syria.
3 p.m. — CSIS discussion on the New START Treaty expiration.
3 p.m. — Government Executive discussion regarding operational technology integration.
3 p.m. G-50 Dirksen — Public forum on tactics used by Homeland Security agents.
6 p.m. 58 East 68th Street, New York, N.Y. — Council on Foreign Relations debates U.S. annexation of Greenland.
6 p.m. — Government Executive Media Group continues its operational technology discussion.
WEDNESDAY | FEBRUARY 4
9:30 a.m. — Atlantic Council discussion on Central Europe’s role in transatlantic economics.
10 a.m. — Foundation for Defense of Democracies virtual discussion with Greek Defense Minister Nikos Dendias.
2 p.m. — Center for American Progress discussion addressing DHS oversight concerns.
2:30 p.m. — Senate hearing exploring European energy security pathways.
THURSDAY | FEBRUARY 5
9 a.m. — Atlantic Council discussion on transatlantic relationships’ new strategic reality.
10:30 a.m. — Atlantic Council hosts discussion on the geopolitical dynamics involving Venezuela, Iran, and the China-Russia alliance.
1 p.m. — Federalist Society explores military law with perspectives from former general counsels.
1:30 p.m. 1779 Massachusetts Ave. NW — Carnegie discussion on navigating nuclear threats.
4 p.m. — Georgetown University book discussion focused on shaping the future of the volunteer military.
6:30 p.m. — Carnegie Endowment for International Peace to address issues of nuclear proliferation.
FRIDAY | FEBRUARY 6
11 a.m. 1400 L St. NW — Atlantic Council examines how Moscow propagates the narrative of Putin’s inevitable victory.
TUESDAY | FEBRUARY 10
10 a.m. 310 Cannon — House Homeland Security Committee oversight hearing involving ICE and CBP leadership.
WEDNESDAY | FEBRUARY 11
3 p.m. 222 Russell — Senate Armed Services Personnel Subcommittee hearing focused on quality of life for servicemembers and families.
THURSDAY | FEBRUARY 12
Brussels, Belgium — The UK and Germany will host the Ukraine Defense Contact Group at NATO Headquarters.
FRIDAY | FEBRUARY 13
Munich, Germany — Nearly 50 heads of state will gather for the 62nd Munich Security Conference, running through February 15.
