Reports indicate that the Trump administration is holding back approximately $400 million in military aid to Taiwan, a move that many find intrusive. The administration hasn’t finalized its decision, and the reasons seem disconnected from Taiwan’s defense needs, echoing the 2019 withholding of security assistance.
The threat posed by China to Taiwan is serious. Personally, I think supporting Taiwan militarily is crucial to countering Beijing’s aggressive stance. Historically, critiques of Taipei’s national security efforts dating back to the Taiwan Relations Act of 1979 now feel rather outdated.
Sadly, the U.S. hasn’t articulated a strong commitment to Taiwan’s self-defense or its de facto independence for quite some time. Since 1949, there’s been a consistent aim to prevent Taiwan from falling under the control of mainland China. Its strategic position along the “First Island Chain” has previously been described as an “unsinkable aircraft carrier.” Taiwan’s economy and thriving democratic system emphasize its importance to U.S. national security.
Thus, the suspension of military aid is worrisome. One clear reason for this cutoff seems to stem from Trump’s fixation on a trade deal with China and his eagerness for a summit with Xi Jinping. Throughout his first term, Trump often referred to achieving “the largest trade deal in history” with China, but he ultimately fell short. Now, negotiating with China has grown increasingly complex, primarily due to mutual tariffs that complicate relationships with potential allies.
On September 19, Trump spoke with Xi about various matters, including the status of TikTok. Trump had once threatened to shut down TikTok or impose a deadline for its sale to new owners, but his concerns about espionage diminished when he saw how it might benefit his re-election campaign. It’s baffling how quickly his stance shifted.
There’s a deep-rooted fear in Taiwan that Trump might trade away its interests for a grand trade arrangement with the Chinese authorities. Evidence is emerging that he is not reluctant to appease Beijing.
Since the onset of the Ukraine conflict, China emerged as the largest international buyer of oil and gas. Yet, despite aggressive rhetoric, Trump hasn’t implemented further tariffs or sanctions against China.
In contrast, India, viewed as a strategic priority by Washington to curb China’s ambitions, has faced hefty tariffs from the U.S. that amount to 50% on its exports. This is a significant burden compared to other trading partners.
Moreover, despite notable Russian actions regarding the Ukraine conflict, Trump has not imposed new sanctions on Russia, setting conditions that seem to cater to European nations while intensifying tariffs against India and China. Regardless of Trump’s reasoning, the overarching impact is a lack of pressure on both Moscow and Beijing.
Taiwan ranks as America’s seventh-largest trading partner and holds a dominant position in advanced chip manufacturing, highlighting the risks posed by Chinese dominance over the island. What really troubles Taiwan is the possibility of political concessions. For instance, if Trump were to adjust the Shanghai Communique or reinterpret it, he might undermine Taiwan’s political standing in favor of acknowledging Beijing’s sovereignty. This would understandably signal to Asian governments that Taiwan could be left vulnerable.
A significant alteration in the U.S. stance towards Taiwan could undermine its commitment to support Taipei as outlined in the Taiwan Relations Act and undoubtedly spark political controversy in Congress. However, as demonstrated by the TikTok situation, Trump often sidesteps laws he disagrees with, leaving Congress in a state of inaction. Violating the Taiwan Relations Act might seem easy for a president in the Oval Office, but it could inadvertently encourage Xi and widen the gap for Taiwan.
This isn’t a moment for Taiwanese advocates to remain passive. Taiwan could respond rapidly to any sudden changes. In Trump’s world, social media often serves as his preferred communication platform, at times neglecting thorough analysis or coordination with allies.
Whether Trump can pull off what he claims will be “the biggest trade deal in history” is doubtful. What’s even more uncertain is whether China would be willing to honor such commitments. The U.S. must promptly resume military aid and assert that Beijing will not have unchecked control over Taiwan.
