Former President Trump reportedly won Pennsylvania in 2016 and narrowly lost the state in 2020. Nevertheless, he is far ahead in polls today compared to where he was polling in those key battleground states during those two election cycles.
According to RealClearPolitics (RCP) average poll Polls in Pennsylvania show Trump leading incumbent Vice President Kamala Harris by just 0.2 percentage points.
That may not sound like much of a lead, but it really isn't. But what's helpful is to look at Pennsylvania polls from the same period of the 2016 and 2020 campaigns.
According to RCP's average survey of Pennsylvania polls on this date in 2016, Trump lost the state to Hillary Clinton by: 9.4 points. Trump will continue to win the state 0.7 point difference.
Trump is currently polling 9.6(!) points higher in Pennsylvania than he was eight years ago.
On this day in 2020, Joe Biden, who cheated, had a 7.1 point lead over Trump, according to the RCP average survey of Pennsylvania polls. Biden is said to have won this state. 1.2 points.
Trump is currently polling 7.3(!) points higher in Pennsylvania than he was four years ago.
Hillary Clinton against Trump Never once Ranked first in RCP Pennsylvania average. So is Slow Joe Biden. Nevertheless, as it turned out, it both screamed. However, according to the RCP average, Mr. Trump has a lead over Ms. Kamala for a longer period of time than Ms. Harris.
What's even more interesting is that by the time Election Day arrived, the precious RCP average was much closer to the final tally in both 2016 and 2020. RCP predicted that Biden would win by 1.2 points in 2020, and we've heard that he actually won by 1.2 points. 1.2 points. In 2016, RCP's average prediction was for Hillary to win by 1.9 points and Trump by 0.7 points.
In other words…
Although the RCP average is imperfect, it is still fairly reliable.
So if the RCP average says Trump has a slim lead today, he probably will. What I'm hearing is that the Harris campaign is concerned about Pennsylvania, and the Trump campaign is particularly positive about Pennsylvania.
Additionally, if past is prologue, look at RCP Pennsylvania's averages in 2016 and 2020… Trump is a great closer, so he closed the gap in the final weeks.
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