Tuesday’s elections in Colorado, New York, South Carolina and Utah saw the first defeats of incumbent Democratic House members in primary elections this season, as well as the defeat of several candidates endorsed by President Trump.
The progressive wing of the Democratic Party suffered a major blow when Rep. Jamaal Bowman (NY) lost to moderate Westchester County Mayor George Latimer in the party’s most eventful primary election yet, while Donald Trump’s near-perfect approval record this term took hits almost everywhere, all but ensuring his survival in November’s congressional elections as a political lightning rod, Rep. Lauren Boebert (R-Colo.).
Here are five takeaways from Tuesday’s primary results.
Bowman’s absence will hurt the team
The New York congressman’s loss was not a shock — Bowman, who has generated controversy and headlines on several issues as part of the House’s progressive “squad,” had a tough fight in Tuesday’s primary — but his loss was a major setback for the party’s progressive wing, which had publicly endorsed him in the days and weeks leading up to the race.
The election attracted widespread attention nationwide as a test of the divisions in the Democratic Party that have become exposed since the outbreak of war between Israel and Hamas on October 7.
Latimer’s attacks against Bowman centered on Israel, criticizing incumbent lawmakers who voted against additional aid to Israel, calling for a permanent ceasefire and initially calling reports of sexual violence during the October 7 attacks “propaganda” and a “lie.” Bowman later retracted those comments and apologized.
Bowman defended his stance against Israel, which he accuses of committing genocide against Palestinians in the Gaza Strip, and blasted pro-Israel groups such as the American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC) for pouring millions of dollars into his campaign.
While both candidates tried to portray themselves as out of touch with their constituencies, Bowman ultimately failed to convince his constituency that he deserved to serve another two years. He is the first member of the Squad since its formation to lose a primary, and his loss may serve as a warning to other lawmakers who criticize Israel.
The next test for progressives will come in August, when another member of the Squad, Rep. Cori Bush (D), faces a tough primary in Missouri.
Trump-backed candidates have a bad night
Perhaps no other politician in the country has wielded more single-handed influence than Trump, whose support is often enough to propel candidates to victory in Republican primaries.
But three highly-watched elections on Tuesday saw weak results, with candidates backed by Trump coming in second.
In South Carolina’s runoff election, nurse Sheri Biggs narrowly defeated President Trump-endorsed pastor Mark Burns to win the Republican nomination for the state’s likely ultimate congressional seat in the Republican-held 3rd Congressional District. Her win was also a victory for Republican Gov. Henry McMaster, himself a Trump ally, who supported her.
In Colorado’s 5th Congressional District, controversial state Republican Chairman Dave Williams lost his primary to Jeff Crank, despite having the endorsement of President Trump. Crank had the backing of Republican leaders, including House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-Louisiana), but Williams had angered many in the party with his divisive actions and past comments.
And in Utah, Riverton Mayor Trent Staggs, a Trump supporter, lost the Republican primary for the Senate seat being vacated by retiring Sen. Mitt Romney (R-Utah), in favor of a more moderate candidate, Rep. John Curtis (R-Utah).
There were also some wins for Trump on Tuesday, when his candidate, Gabe Evans, won his primary in Colorado’s 8th Congressional District against the state’s Republican Party’s candidate.
But while the former president remains a leading force in his party, Tuesday’s results highlighted that not everything he puts his hands on benefits him politically.
Boebert wins
After Rep. Lauren Boebert (R-Colo.) looked set to lose her House seat in November 2022, many observers in both parties were ready to write her political obituary.
But the controversial firebrand now has an opportunity to carve out a safer path to reelection when Rep. Ken Buck (R-Colo.) announces his retirement, running in the safer Republican 4th Congressional District rather than the lean-to 3rd District he has represented thus far.
Still, she faced a fierce primary in the 4th District amid accusations of carpetbagging.
She has also had to deal with a protracted controversy after she was booted from a theater last year after being accused of causing a disturbance, leading to an unusual apology for a female member of Congress.
But Boebert got a boost when the leading candidates in the special election to fill Buck’s seat decided to run only for the remainder of the term rather than for the full term, and Trump’s endorsement helped her name get to the top of the ballot.
All of this, combined with Boebert’s opposition to narrowing it down to one candidate, likely contributed to her winning the primary and allowing her to continue serving as a congresswoman.
AIPAC and other pro-Israel groups win
One of the major storylines in the Latimer vs. Bowman race was how pro-Israel groups like AIPAC poured large amounts of money into the race to challenge the incumbent.
Bowman has consistently criticized these groups for their spending, accusing them of being part of a right-wing effort to oust him. This election was the most expensive House primary in U.S. history, with the bulk of the spending coming from the Democratic Party. Came From pro-Israel groups.
Latimer’s overall spending outnumbered Bowman’s by 7 to 1.
Latimer defended his funding sources, noting that most of the money that went directly into his campaign came from within his district and stressed his deep ties to the area, while criticizing Bowman for taking money from outside the district.
While pro-Israel groups like AIPAC have shown a willingness to intervene in elections to support their preferred candidates in the past, their role was much more prominent this time around than in most previous cases.
Democratic interference in Colorado primary goes unrewarded
Two years ago, Democrats nearly pulled off a shocking upset when Adam Frisch beat Boebert by just a few hundred votes. Frisch is running again as the Democratic candidate in Colorado’s 3rd Congressional District, but this time he’ll be running against a different candidate after Boebert moved to Buck’s district.
Hoping to field a candidate of their own to help make Frisch’s election easier, Democrats have entered the Republican primary between establishment-backed lawyer Jeff Hurd and former state Sen. Ron Hanks, who rejects the election results.
Frisch’s campaign and other Democrats saw Hanks as an easier opponent to beat, and ran ads supporting him and attacking Hurd for avoiding debates and certain policy positions.
But that effort ultimately failed, and Hurd handily won the nomination over Hanks and several other candidates.
Frisch still has a chance of winning, but Democrats may find it harder to win, with the Cook Political Report rating the race as “Republican-leaning.”
