A new NBC poll on Sunday gave former President Donald Trump his largest lead ever over President Biden, as voters gave the incumbent president poor ratings across the board.
Mr. Trump, 77, holds a 47% to 42% lead over Mr. Biden, 81, among registered voters, widening the 46% to 44% lead recorded in November. Vote from outlet.
“This is the largest lead Donald Trump has over Joe Biden in 16 polls that NBC has ever conducted,” NBC political correspondent Steve Kornacki said on Sunday’s “Meet・The Press”.
NBC has been conducting polls on Trump vs. Biden for about five years. Historically, Biden has had an advantage over his predecessors, but that started to change last year.
Last July, Biden had a 49% to 45% lead over Trump, but by September he was trailing by 46%. Then, in November, President Trump made a breakthrough.
The latest poll was conducted between January 26 and 30 among 1,000 registered voters, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.
With the addition of third-party candidates, Mr. Trump’s lead expanded to 6 points, giving Mr. Biden 41% to 35%, followed by Libertarian candidates with 5%, Greens with 5% and No Labels with 4%.
The poll did not include environmental lawyer Robert F. Kennedy Jr. or independent presidential candidate Cornel West.
Former U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations and South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley beat Biden in the poll, 45% to 36%.
The Biden campaign declined to comment on the poll. But Matt Barrett, a former pollster for the 2020 Biden campaign, told the paper he had some concerns about that sampling.
“White voters and conservatives are overrepresented, and Democrats and Latinos are underrepresented.” “It’s important to point out flaws, especially when they appear as outliers when compared to other polls,” he said.
“We know that 2024 is very close, and we know that pre-election polls will be rough.”
Separately, a subsample of Republican voters surveyed supported Haley over Haley in the Republican primary, where Trump was the overwhelming favorite, 79% to 19%.
The NBC poll also showed some warning signs for Biden ahead of a possible rematch with President Trump on November 5th.
Biden’s approval rating plummeted to 37%, with 60% disapproving of his performance as president. This is the lowest ratings NBC has recorded since former President George W. Bush.
While trailing Trump in the polls, Biden won 41% support from Latino voters, up from his predecessor’s 42%. Among young voters ages 18 to 34, Biden leads Trump 38% to 26%.
Despite low unemployment and slowing inflation under Biden’s watch, 55% of voters said they trust Trump more on the economy than Biden’s 33%.
By a 21-point margin, respondents said they trusted Trump more than Biden when it came to “the physical and mental health necessary to be president.”
Still, Mr. Biden held an advantage over Mr. Trump on some issues, including voters’ confidence in defending democracy, 43% to 41%, and a 12-point difference on abortion.
The Biden campaign has repeatedly ignored the dismal polls, pointing out that Democrats outperformed polls and expectations in the 2022 midterm elections and that Democrats won numerous elections in the 2023 off-year.
“We can’t afford to lose this campaign in the national interest. It’s not about me. It’s way beyond me. It’s about the country. I think everyone knows that,” Biden said. He made this announcement after winning a landslide victory in the South Dakota primary.
The president and his allies are framing the 2024 general election campaign as a fight to protect American democracy.
NBC’s results are consistent with countless other polls showing Trump ahead of Biden, but most polls put both men within the margin of error.
Trump held a 46.7% to 44.6% lead over Biden in the most recent election. RealClearPolitics vote tally.
The 45th president also generally outperforms Biden in the majority of RCP tallies in battleground states that will ultimately decide the outcome of the election.
