Former President Trump has stepped up his efforts in Virginia, a sign that Republicans believe the state can be won in November’s election.
While President Biden headed to the battleground state of North Carolina for a post-debate rally, President Trump traveled to Chesapeake, Virginia, to share the stage with Republican Governor Glenn Youngkin for the first time.
The governor obviously avoided sitting down with Trump in the 2021 presidential election because of the political repercussions, but recent polls suggest the Old Dominion State could be a favorable environment for Republicans heading into 2024, despite Democratic gains in lower-ranking districts.
“We’re not talking about Florida or Texas or any of the other extreme states the left wants to target, we’re talking about states that Biden won by 10.2%. [points]” said Zach Roday, a Republican strategist in Virginia who formerly worked for Youngkin’s Virginia Spirit PAC.
“Gravity could still come back for Virginia, but that doesn’t mean there isn’t a clear shift happening in the polls,” he continued.
Recent polls suggest the president could face a close race with less than five months until Election Day. A Roanoke College poll released in May gave Trump and Biden 42% support in the state, with a margin of error of 4.2 percentage points. Other polls have Biden slightly ahead of Trump. The Hill’s Decision Desk polling average has Trump leading Biden by just 0.2 percentage points.
Adding fuel to Republican enthusiasm in Virginia was Thursday night’s debate, during which Trump was criticized for making false statements, but coverage of the debate focused on what Democrats and Republicans described as a poor performance by Biden, whose voice sounded raspy and weak onstage and who at times appeared to struggle to form coherent sentences.
“If it’s still Biden versus Trump after last night’s events, then Virginia is certainly going to be an issue,” said Tucker Martin, a Virginia-based Republican strategist and former communications director for former Gov. Bob McDonnell (R).
“You have to remember that the average voter probably only watched the first 20 minutes and then turned off the TV,” he added. “That’s probably the longest voters are going to pay attention to this race until after Labor Day. How can you get past a performance like that? I don’t know.”
Trump took to the stage in Virginia on Friday afternoon and was quick to criticize Biden for his performance in the debate.
“He studied so much that he didn’t know what he was doing,” Trump quipped to his supporters. “He got the rules he wanted, he got the dates he wanted, he got the networks he wanted, he got the hosts he wanted. No amount of recess or rigging helped.”
While Biden’s supporters argue his performance in the debate was less than perfect and he got off to a slow start, they also say the debate will not change the key choice between Trump and Biden.
“Virginia has been a wall for President Trump’s MAGA politics,” Virginia Rep. Gerry Connolly (D) said in a statement. “We know our democracy is at stake, and the choice between President Biden and a twice-impeached, convicted felon couldn’t be clearer. We will not tire of winning, and we will not roll back the progress the Democratic Party has made. We will win in Virginia.”
The Biden campaign also rejected the idea that the state could lead to a Republican victory.
“If Mr. Trump wants to spend time and money campaigning in blue states, he is free to do so,” a Biden campaign spokesman said.
The Biden campaign sought to capitalize on Trump’s Chesapeake rally in the Hampton Roads metropolitan area by targeting the region’s large military population. The campaign zeroed in on comments Trump allegedly made about fallen U.S. soldiers, which Biden also brought up during the debate.
“After calling veterans ‘idiots’ and ‘losers’ today, Donald Trump thinks he can walk into Virginia, home to more than 500,000 former and active-duty military personnel and their families,” Maj. Gen. Paul D. Eaton, a retired Army veteran and senior adviser to VoteVets, said in a statement released by the Biden campaign.
Trump denied making such comments during Thursday’s debate.
Republicans are still struggling in Virginia: Biden beat Trump there by 10 points in 2020, and the last Republican to win the state was former President George W. Bush, in 2004. On top of that, Democrats are winning a number of lower-ranked candidates in the 2022 midterms and 2023 state legislative elections.
Several conditions must fall into place for the state to be fertile ground for the former president’s campaign. Trump needs to make significant gains in the heavily Republican rural areas of the state that Youngkin carried in 2021. He also needs to win over swing voters and suburban voters in Hampton Roads and the area around Richmond. Northern Virginia, a densely populated Democratic stronghold, could be the former president’s biggest obstacle. Republicans say Democratic turnout and enthusiasm have fallen and Trump needs to woo the region’s suburban voters.
“If Trump wins Virginia, it’s going to be a completely different story than it was in 2021,” Martin said. “The turnout will be completely different, much higher, because there are a lot more voters, and people tend to go back to their camp, so he’s not going to win by a landslide.”
“Looking at Biden’s performance last night, I think a lot of voters who were in the ‘I don’t like either’ category were pushed into the Trump camp,” he said.
Republican strategist Ford O’Connell said Trump’s appearance in Virginia on Friday was a show of strength and evidence of his “growing base of support.”
“This is completely to Trump’s advantage because he doesn’t want to take his foot off the gas,” O’Connell said. “As long as the map is expanding, he’s well positioned to win the election in November.”
Democrats have pointed to their recent focus on North Carolina as a growing base of support, and on Friday Biden held his first post-debate rally in Raleigh.
But Republicans paint a more urgent picture.
“What many voters are thinking about is not whether Biden can serve another four years, but whether he can serve another four months,” O’Connell said.
