Speaking on CNN on Tuesday, network data analyst Harry Enten downplayed the polling frenzy surrounding Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris.
Enten said that when the margin of error between 2016 and 2020 is taken into account in battleground states, Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump still has an advantage.
“Exactly. I mean, the poll numbers that came out yesterday,” he said. “The New York Times, Siena College, we reported on it. We showed you the Ipsos poll, all of which showed Kamala Harris clearly had the momentum, the enthusiasm may be on her side. But I want to take a step back and point out that we’ve been in this situation before. Look at how off the polls were on August 13th in Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin. This was in 2016 and 2020. Trump was projected both times, and by a significant margin.”
“Look at 2016. In the average polls in those Great Lakes battleground states that I mentioned, Trump was underestimated by an average of nine points at this point in 2016,” Enten said. “And what about 2020? This isn’t a one-off. Look at this. Trump was underestimated by an average of five points. And then, of course, in the New York Times and Siena College polls, Kamala Harris had a four-point advantage in each of the key battleground states of Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.”
“The bottom line is, if you’re a Kamala Harris fan and you want to open a bottle of champagne and pop the cork, don’t do it,” he added. “Donald Trump is very much in this race. If the polls change until the final result is in, like they have been in the past few years, Donald Trump will win. I’m not saying that’s going to happen, but I’m just saying that judging by where he is right now, he’s very much in this race. And compare that to where he has been in the past few years.”
(h/t RCP Video)
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