Early predictions suggest that ultranationalists, who oppose military support for Ukraine and criticize EU leaders while aligning themselves with Donald Trump, are poised to win the initial round of voting in the Romanian presidential election. They’ll likely face off against centrist candidates in the next stage.
George Simion highlighted these projections shortly after the polls closed on Sunday, indicating that the far-right alliance of his party, the Roman Union (AUR), garnered between 30% and 33% of the votes amid the ongoing pandemic.
Meanwhile, the second and third positions were closely contested by Bucharest mayor Nicușor Dan and veteran former senator Dan Dungaciu, both of whom received around 21% to 23% of the votes, while former nationalist prime minister Victor Ponta trailed with approximately 14.7%.
The two leading candidates are set to compete again on May 18, about six months after the earlier election was canceled due to concerns over a significant Russian influence campaign.
The forecasts reflect votes cast up until shortly before the polling stations closed at 9 PM local time and do not take into account Romania’s substantial diaspora votes.
A far-right victory might indicate a shift for Romania, which is part of both the EU and NATO, from its current pro-Western stance towards becoming a more destabilizing influence in the region.
This outcome would also be welcomed by conservative nationalists across Europe, including figures from former Trump administrations like US Vice President JD Vance, who has criticized Bucharest for undermining democracy following the cancellation of the earlier vote.
Previously, the canceled vote was won by Karin Georgescu, a far-right independent with ties to Moscow, who claimed to have spent nothing on his campaign. However, this result was nullified by Romania’s courts after intelligence reports emerged suggesting Russian interference.
In February, Georgescu, who denied any allegations of fraud, found himself under investigation for various counts related to campaign finance mismanagement and promoting extremist groups. By March, he had been barred from running again.
The Romanian president plays a crucial but often underappreciated role in foreign policy, national security, and judicial appointments, also representing Romania on the global stage and holding the power to veto key EU votes.
There is a palpable anti-establishment sentiment in Romania, driven by economic challenges; the median household income is only a third of the EU average, with over 30% of the country’s 19 million residents at risk of poverty or social exclusion. Nearly 20% of the workforce is employed abroad.
Simion, 38, expressing a desire for a return to “constitutional order” and democracy, stated that his campaign focused solely on Romania’s interests. Georgescu, 63, described the election process as fundamentally flawed yet emphasized the importance of voting as a means to challenge the system.
Dan, a former anti-corruption activist, claimed to be voting for a “new beginning” for his country, while Antonescu, 65, representing the dominant Social Democrats and Liberals, emphasized the need for a strong and dignified Romania.
Polling data in Romania tends to be unreliable, suggesting Simion might outperform Dan, although Antonescu could pose a greater challenge.
Despite portraying himself as more moderate than Georgescu, Simion has consistently emphasized the need for Romania’s sovereignty, even alluding to historical territorial claims. Unlike Georgescu, he frequently condemns Russia and praises elements of Trump’s Republican Party, advocating for Romania to forge a national alliance within the EU.
Simion has shared aspirations to bring Georgescu into the government should he win, stating, “There are ways for Mr. Georgescu to be in leadership if the Romanian people desire it.” He mentioned the potential for forming a majority or calling for a referendum.
Romania held parliamentary elections in December, where Simion’s AUR and other far-right factions secured 35% of the available seats.
If the parliamentary body rejects the proposed governments within the next 60 days, it could trigger snap elections, though experts deem this scenario unlikely. For now, the centrist coalition appears unified.
In the event of his election, Simion lamented the earlier election cancellation, stating, “We betrayed the future of Romanian children and our elderly.”
