New polls suggest that Democratic voters think their presidential candidate is a bit old-fashioned.
of Economist/YouGov Poll The survey, conducted June 23-25, revealed stark differences among many subgroups between those who said they were confident about watching Thursday night’s CNN debate in Atlanta between President Biden and former President Donald Trump and those who were not.
While the event itself will not have a spectator, numbers suggest Democrats are unlikely to tune in, giving Republican candidates a chance to tap into the audience that matters most – television viewers watching the first showdown between the current and former presidents in nearly four years on CNN and multiple media outlets.
When it comes to “voter intent,” 37% of self-described Biden supporters say they will “definitely tune in on Thursday,” while 40% of Trump supporters claim the same. Both are higher than the 35% of registered voters who have pledged to tune in, but the Trump camp has the advantage here.
When it comes to questions of party affiliation, the differences are even more striking.
Forty percent of Republicans are clear about their plans for Thursday night, while just 33% of Democrats say the same.
Notably, while the percentage of viewers who are Trump supporters and Republicans has remained steady, the numbers show a decline in viewers on the other side, with fewer Democrats saying they are enthusiastic about watching than Biden supporters.
Meanwhile, only 17% of independents say they’ll definitely watch, suggesting that persuadable voters are not the show’s ultimate audience.
Among leaners, the situation is much the same.
36% of Republicans intend to watch CNN compared to just 31% of Democrats, and when you add Republicans to either column, only 12% of unaffiliated people definitely intend to watch.
The differences are least stark when it comes to ideological issues, showing that the Biden-Trump contest is not defined by a simple liberal-conservative dichotomy.
Among those who identify as conservative, 35% said they would definitely tune in, as did 34% of liberals. Only 25% of moderates said they would tune in to the two-hour event.
Other questions in the poll support the idea that Trump supporters are more motivated than Biden supporters.
While 50% of Trump supporters said they were “very enthusiastic” about their choice in November’s presidential election, only 35% of Biden supporters said the same.
This division is replicated in terms of ideology and partisanship: 43% of conservatives and 43% of Republicans say they are very enthusiastic about voting in November, while only 30% of liberals and 29% of Democrats say the same.
That said, the data offers some encouragement for the other side.
Equal shares of Biden and Trump supporters (90%) say they will definitely vote in November, but when partisan divisions are taken into account, the math favors Republicans, with 87% of Republicans and just 84% of Democrats making the same claim.
There is no national election and the election is decided by the electoral college vote rather than the popular vote, but the overall race is tied, with Trump and Biden each receiving 42% support among registered voters.
