Former President Donald Trump took the lead with the famous 538 election prediction model for the first time since it began measuring the 2024 presidential election.
“The slow trickle of votes showed that the race was tight.”
The model, which has run 1,000 election simulations, currently gives Trump a 52% chance of winning. Based on this model, Harris has a 48% chance of winning the election.
“The change in candidates' fortunes came after slow polling showed the race was heating up across the Northern and Sunbelt battleground states.” explained 538 Site Data Analyst G. Elliott Morris.
He said new polls show Trump leading in Pennsylvania, while Harris' lead has narrowed in Michigan and support is even in Wisconsin. Georgia and Arizona also went from being heavily contested to being classified as leaning Republican.
Morris went on to caution against reading too much into trends, saying he still classifies the race as a close one.
“There's no doubt that Trump has gained some support over the past few weeks, but some good polling for Harris could easily put her back in the lead tomorrow. Our understanding of the overall nature of the war, that it is a matter of changing votes, has not changed.
Other pollsters, including CNN's Harry Enten, say Harris needs a significant lead to feel comfortable with the election result, as Trump often underperforms in pre-election polls. A warning to Democrats.
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