When Chinese President Xi Jinping stated that mastering artificial intelligence is “the front line and main battlefield of international competition,” he was making a serious declaration, not just putting on a political show. This marked the introduction of a strategic framework aimed at guiding China’s ambitions across various sectors like economy, military, and technology.
After serving 24 years in the military and spending more than two decades analyzing America’s rivals, including writing extensively on geopolitical threats, I’ve learned to pay attention to authoritarian leaders when they clearly express their goals.
As President Donald Trump visits Beijing on May 14 for his first trip there since 2017, the pivotal question remains: Does the U.S. government grasp the magnitude of the competition currently evolving?
A summit unlike any other
Trump’s trip to Beijing isn’t just another meeting focused on trade or foreign policy. It’s far more significant.
According to reports, senior U.S. officials are eager to engage in discussions about a range of pressing issues like Iran, Taiwan, semiconductors, rare earth minerals, tariffs, digital infrastructure, and military stability. No recent Trump-Xi meeting has come with such substantial geopolitical stakes.
The tariff conflicts initiated by President Trump are part of a broader strategy aimed at shielding America from extensive threats.
In the Middle East, conflicts persist despite the turmoil over Iran. This crisis has led to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, causing significant energy challenges globally and enhancing China’s influence over markets yearning for reliable supply chains. Taiwan faces increasing military pressure from China. The trajectory of U.S.-China relations suggests a resemblance to a new Cold War, one that emphasizes not just nuclear strategies but also technologies like chips, data, automated systems, and infrastructure.
There’s clearly more at stake during this handshake than just trade negotiations. The discussion is about who will define the future international order.
The new AI cold war
For years, U.S. policymakers primarily viewed China through an economic lens, but that perspective is outdated.
The Chinese government is aligning its advancements in computing power, industrial policy, military modernization, and surveillance systems into a cohesive national strategy. In my upcoming book, I explain that the confrontation is about far more than traditional military capabilities; it’s really a contest of algorithms, data, and digital strength.
Recent occurrences indicate that China is progressing much faster than many in Washington seem to appreciate.
In a concerning analysis, a leading publication revealed that Chinese operatives allegedly utilized around 24,000 fake accounts to illicitly acquire U.S. technology. The Chinese government is reportedly preparing to distribute computing technologies globally after achieving greater self-sufficiency in chips and other essential systems.
Spy technologies are not merely hypothetical anymore. On April 23, White House science adviser Michael Kratsios accused China of conducting an “industrial-scale campaign” to replicate America’s advanced AI systems, employing numerous proxy accounts to extract information from U.S. models and develop a more cost-effective Chinese version.
AI is being weaponized, with both the U.S. and China exploring how to regulate autonomous systems, realizing that uncontrolled escalation could lead to significant risks. Surprisingly, hostile nations are negotiating safeguards for mechanical conflicts.
Exporting digital authoritarianism
Beyond the tech race itself, there’s a bigger threat.
China is increasingly merging automated surveillance with state power into a robust authoritarian model. Technologies like Huawei’s “Safe City” initiative have reached numerous cities worldwide.
Nations in Africa and Southeast Asia now depend heavily on Chinese surveillance technologies, which come with a governance model built on control rather than consent.
When other countries adopt these systems, they also inherit China’s technological standards and norms regarding censorship and surveillance. It’s key to recognize that the U.S.-China rivalry is about much more than mere economic interests; it has ideological implications as well.
Taiwan: the most dangerous flashpoint
Taiwan is arguably the most volatile issue on the agenda for this summit.
Reports indicate that President Trump plans to discuss arms sales to Taiwan with President Xi, openly acknowledging Beijing’s opposition to Taiwan’s independence. Lowering support for Taiwan could encourage further aggression from China—any concession could be a severe misstep.
Given that Taiwan manufactures over 90% of the world’s most advanced semiconductors, losing access to that capability could cripple the U.S. defense sector and technology industries as a whole.
Beyond just semiconductors, Taiwan is a crucial player in maintaining maritime security in the Indo-Pacific, which is vital to U.S. credibility among its allies. Weakening support for Taiwan in exchange for minor diplomatic concessions could lead to escalating tensions rather than peace.
Energy utilization in Iran and China
Iran will be another focal point during the summit.
China remains a key buyer of Iranian oil, providing economic buoyancy to Tehran despite Western sanctions. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has only amplified China’s leverage. Interestingly, China managed the recent energy crisis better than many other nations, giving President Xi a unique advantage at the talks.
President Trump needs to resist the temptation to sacrifice long-term U.S. interests for vague assurances from China regarding Iran. A deal favoring China’s position while leaving Iran intact would undermine America’s strategic standing in the Middle East.
Decisive contest
President Xi attends the summit seeking economic relief and tariff stability, while President Trump faces the task of preserving U.S. influence without triggering uncontrollable escalation.
Both leaders likely desire some stability. However, history shows that a fragile peace often doesn’t endure without strength.
As this summit unfolds, it represents not just a discussion about tariffs or Taiwan, but a critical moment that could determine who will shape the future of technology and global systems in the coming century. The soon-to-visit Russian President Vladimir Putin serves as a reminder that alliances formed during this election period will influence global power dynamics for years to come.
U.S. allies across the globe are observing these developments with keen interest.
The real question isn’t merely whether the U.S. and China are vying for global influence anymore; it’s whether America possesses the clarity and resolve to emerge victorious in this defining geopolitical competition of our era.
