Five-and-dime stores are now a thing of the past in America.reportThe Financial Times reports accurately that President-elect Donald Trump has signaled to NATO members that they must spend 5 percent of their GDP on defense each year if they want U.S. aid.
That's a big question. As of June 2024,32 NATO countries8 people were still far from reaching their goal.2 percent of GDP threshold. Only Poland has more than 4%.
That might be enough in peacetime, but Russia and its evil Axis allies are knocking on the door. Additionally, there is already significant activity on the European continent.hybrid warRussia engages in espionage, sabotage, cyberattacks, assassinations, and disinformation.
It's also not good enough for what's going to happen over the next decade. The Kremlin is rapidly preparing for an even larger kinetic war against Europe.
Andrei BelosovRussia's defense minister emphasized the urgency of the latter point earlier this month, announcing that Russia needs to prepare for “a direct military conflict with NATO in the next 10 years.”
To get there and win the war in Ukraine, Moscow announced in September:increase defense spendingIn 2025, it will increase by 25% and reach 6.3% of GDP. In other words1.5 times the currentUS defense spending as a percentage of GDP, three times NATO's current median.
Although Russia is on the verge of war, many NATO countries remain in denial about any future developments or, as in the case of Slovakia and Hungary, prioritize economic security over long-term national security.
Canada, a major NORAD partner, currently1.4 percent of GDPAbout defense. Belgium, where NATO is headquartered, is even worse, spending just 1.1%.
Europe is therefore vulnerable. If Russia weaponizes European civilians by deliberately attacking hospitals, energy grids, schools, and historical and cultural sites in an eventual war with NATO, as it is doing across Ukraine, The amount will be doubled.
Leaked NATO reportThe situation since May last year is alarming. Brussels estimates that NATO member states currently “can provide less than 5 percent of the air defense capabilities needed to protect member states in Central and Eastern Europe from a full-scale attack.”
The Russian military has been most successful in targeting Ukraine's population centers and energy infrastructure with missiles and drones. The exposure to a future Europe at war is very real.
This means that 95% of Europe is now a target-rich environment.
Therefore, NATO cannot be considered in terms of GDP alone. Overall, organizations need to prioritize capabilities, not only in terms of their current needs, but also in terms of what they are learning on the battlefield in Ukraine.
Israel's wars against Hamas, Hezbollah, and Iran should also be beneficial. Especially when it comes to electronic warfare, given the proliferation of kinetic drones used to interdict troops, armored vehicles, and artillery, and the construction of multi-layered, integrated air defense systems along the perimeter of Iron Dome.
Air defense is just the beginning.
Artillery and mortar production is woefully inadequate. In 2025, Ukraine predicts:Russia alone“We will be able to produce 30% more shells than all of our shells.” [European Union] It is a combination of member countries. ”
Kiev was unable to end the war, as Ukraine lacked precision deep-strike weapons for much of the war, including the American ATACMS, British Storm Shadow, French Scalp, and German Taurus missiles, and Kiev was unable to end the war when the Ukrainians significantly reduced its ability to protect itself from world wars. I like attacking from the front.
NATO will not be able to win future wars unless it is able to successfully cut off Russian supply lines and fight deep battles to create space to win in close combat. Ukraine has had bloody encounters with this reality on the 700-mile front line of the war.
The cost of human life alone as a result of Russia's war of attrition is staggering. Retired Army Lt. Gen. Keith Kellogg, who will be President Trump's special envoy to Ukraine and Russia on Jan. 20, said:350,000 and 400,000 Russian troops died along with 150,000 Ukrainian soldiers.
Multiply these numbers by the traditional 3-to-4-to-1 wound-to-kill ratio, and it quickly becomes clear that NATO cannot afford the human cost of Kremlin-style warfare of mass attrition in the future. .
By contrast, President Trump's current demand for a 5% price cut is exponentially cheaper. And in fact, from a national security perspective, it is also much more prudent and strategic for the European members of NATO.
Training is also important. NATO's ground defense is predicated on rapid response, which means being able to mobilize and strengthen forward-deployed forces. NATO battle groupIn Bulgaria, Estonia, Hungary, Lithuania, Poland, Romania and Slovakia.
For that,training sergeantFrom the root. first at the national level and then as part of NATO integrated/coalition teams formed through joint exercises and training.
If a war breaks out with Russia in the next 10 years, spending 5% on their development and training now will save many of their lives in the future. Russian President Vladimir Putin has not made this same investment in his country's military. That is also part of the reason why his casualty numbers in Ukraine were so high.
You can't put anyone in a uniform, give them weapons and expect them to become soldiers within two weeks. But that's exactly what Putin is doing. NATO, by contrast, spends years developing and training its combatants.
NATO must also prepare to fight future violent wars in new and innovative ways. Artificial intelligence is already transforming Ukraine's battlefields and intelligence gathering and assessment processes.
collected by the Ukrainian army 2 million hours of video Away from the battlefield, it is used “to identify targets” [by] It scans images much faster than humans. ” An image overlay detects changes and alerts humans to take action.
None of this is easy. After years of investing in comprehensive social planning, Europe faces a stark choice between national security and an ideal social state. Finding the political will to change that will not be easy.
But Trump is up to the challenge. If you don't pay the 5% down payment now, you risk losing future U.S. NATO support.
Europe failed to make a similar choice in the 1930s, leading to the outbreak of World War II. Today, President Putin made his position clear. Last Friday heopenly announcedThe world declared war on Russia, and in response, “the Russian world declared war.”
The only question that remains at this point is whether Europe is going to listen to President Trump and invest 5% of its GDP, or will it listen to President Putin, who is betting that it won't? That's true.
mark tothHe writes about national security and foreign policy. Colonel (retired)Jonathan SweetHe served as an Army intelligence officer for 30 years.
