Warning for Republican Candidates on Vaccine Position

Republican candidates in key districts who advocate for changes to childhood vaccine schedules might face backlash in the upcoming midterm elections. This insight comes from a recent memo by FabrizioWard, a polling firm closely associated with former President Donald Trump.

According to a memo dated November 3, Republican and Democratic candidates who back the removal of long-standing vaccine requirements are likely to struggle in the elections that will determine the control of the House of Representatives next year.

FabrizioWard conducted a survey involving 1,000 voters in 35 competitive congressional districts to gauge public opinion on recommended vaccines.

This survey follows the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services’ recent announcement regarding an updated childhood immunization schedule, which now suggests administering 11 shots instead of the previous 17.

The Congressional ballot in these districts currently shows a statistical tie, with Democrats holding a slight two-point lead. However, if a Republican candidate supports eliminating established vaccine recommendations, that margin could swing dramatically; specifically, a 12-point shift in favor of Democrats, putting the Republican candidate 14 points behind, the memo reveals.

If a Democratic candidate opposes existing vaccine recommendations, that slight lead could diminish further by 20 points, resulting in an 18-point advantage for the Republican.

Among swing voters—those who do not consistently vote along party lines—the situation appears even more challenging. Republican candidates skeptical of vaccines could see a net drop of 22 points, while Democrats in the same situation might see a 31-point decline.

The analysis concludes that “vaccine skepticism is bad politics,” according to FabrizioWard.

The polling firm also identified the Make America Healthy Again (MAHA) movement as generally popular across party lines, except in regards to vaccine skepticism. In 25 competitive districts, around 90% of voters, including supporters of both Trump and Kamala Harris, agreed that the government should mandate labels for harmful ingredients in ultra-processed foods.

However, vaccine skepticism—specifically, the push to eliminate established recommendations for diseases like whooping cough, measles, and hepatitis—has found little support, resonating with only about one in five voters, and just one-third of self-identified MAHA supporters.

The polling indicates a solid backing for childhood vaccines, such as Hepatitis B, shingles, and whooping cough. Over 70% of voters in these districts support the idea that the benefits of vaccines like MMR and TDAP outweigh their risks, with majorities among MAHA supporters as well.

Following new CDC guidance, children are recommended to receive vaccinations for diphtheria, tetanus, whooping cough, Hib, pneumococcal conjugate, polio, measles, mumps, rubella, HPV, and chickenpox. The rotavirus, COVID-19, influenza, meningococcal disease, hepatitis A, and hepatitis B vaccines have been removed from the updated schedule.

No vaccines have been banned under this change, and insurance will still cover the previously recommended 17 vaccinations.

FabrizioWard has not yet responded to requests for further comment regarding their findings.