Over the last four decades, the turkey population in the U.S. has been on a decline, which has resulted in a 40% increase in wholesale turkey prices, according to officials.
Forecasts for 2025 indicate that only 194.5 million turkeys will be commercially raised, reflecting a 3% drop from 2024. This number represents the lowest level since 1985 when there were approximately 185 million turkeys.
This shortage is driving wholesale prices up significantly, projected to rise from $0.94 to $1.31 per pound in 2024, as stated by the USDA.
The reason for this decrease can be traced back to the avian influenza pandemic that began in September 2022, which devastated farms across the nation, leading to the loss of millions of birds due to culling and illness.
Even though avian flu has lessened for most of 2025, it reportedly resurged in September, as noted by The New York Times.
The paper further mentioned that nearly 7 million farmed turkeys have been impacted by the bird flu in the past couple of months alone.
While the National Turkey Federation has highlighted the industry’s resilience, it’s clear that challenges remain. “We don’t just prepare for Thanksgiving last minute; we plan a year ahead,” said President Leslie Auden, indicating the farmers’ commitment to providing quality turkeys for the holiday.
Auden pointed out that retailers can still secure lower prices early in the year to offer discounts during Thanksgiving, despite the forthcoming increases in wholesale prices.
Interestingly, many grocery stores still sell frozen turkeys from brands like Butterball for under $1 a pound, even amidst these shortages.
Heidi Diesel from Diesel Family Turkey Ranch, which markets premium turkeys priced at nearly $9 per pound, mentioned that low retail prices do not accurately reflect the actual costs involved in raising turkeys. “Many retailers view turkey as a ‘loss leader,’” she explained, indicating they drastically reduce prices to draw in customers despite it costing them more.
