In the 2026 NFL postseason, which has already seen two rounds, turnovers have once again dominated discussions—whether it’s about their timing, frequency, or both. The Los Angeles Rams and Denver Broncos came close to reaching the Super Bowl, with overtime interceptions and game-winning field goals playing crucial roles, though the circumstances surrounding those wins were a bit different. Conversely, the Buffalo Bills and Houston Texans faced elimination due to significant ball-security issues.
One interesting aspect of playoff games—especially those where teams face elimination—is that the patterns seen throughout the season don’t always hold true. The last couple of weeks have proven this point again, with some eliminated teams experiencing swings in momentum, both good and bad, affecting how things play out in the upcoming conference championship round.
Bears, Texans and Jaguars encounter setbacks
The top three teams in terms of turnover differential were the Chicago Bears (+22), Houston Texans (+17), and Jacksonville Jaguars (+13). Unfortunately for them, they all picked a bad time for their performance to dip into negative territory.
The Bears led the league with 33 takeaways, which helped mask a defense that was otherwise average. They committed at least one turnover in 15 out of 17 regular season games, yet couldn’t manage to pull off an upset against either the Green Bay Packers or the Los Angeles Rams, even with various opportunities. Caleb Williams, a standout who threw only seven interceptions during the season, surprisingly threw five in the postseason. Up until last Sunday, the Bears hadn’t finished a game with a -3 turnover margin under Williams, making that final interception to Cam Carle particularly notable.
As for the Texans, while their defense boasted the third-best takeaway stats, the offense struggled, ranking second in giveaways. The defense, led by DeMeco Ryans, was able to create five turnovers against Aaron Rodgers and Drake Maye, only for CJ Stroud to falter. Stroud survived three turnovers against the Pittsburgh Steelers, but four interceptions against the New England Patriots proved to be insurmountable. A fumble in the red zone by Woody Marks added to the chaos, marking the first time since 2021 the Texans lost the ball five times in a game.
Lastly, the Jaguars, who excelled in defensive interceptions and often held their own in the turnover department during the regular season, couldn’t get it together in the wild card round against the Bills. They collected a fumble from Ray Davies but failed to convert it into points. Trevor Lawrence, who had a rough start to the season with 11 interceptions in his first 11 games but turned it around later, had a critical interception in the first quarter that set up a field goal for Buffalo and sealed Jacksonville’s fate with another pick during a last-ditch effort.
Broncos and Seahawks face regular-season woes
In an unusual twist, both conference’s top seeds made history together, marking the first time since the NFL playoffs adopted seeding in 1975 that both No. 1 seeds finished the regular season strong. Denver and Seattle both ended their seasons with a -3 turnover differential, although the Broncos had slightly fewer turnovers and giveaways compared to the Seahawks, who ranked second for turnovers and sixth for takeaways. Seattle’s quarterback, Sam Darnold, surprisingly led the league with 20 turnovers, while the defense also had its fair share of mishaps.
However, fortunes can change quickly. Vance Joseph’s defense, which had struggled all year, notably forced four turnovers from Josh Allen and picked up one from star rusher James Cook in the playoff game against the Bills. Bo Nix did have an interception, but Allen countered with one of his own. Denver capitalized on these mistakes, scoring 16 of their 33 points from the Bills’ blunders. If they can replicate this success defensively in the AFC Championship, they might stand a better chance of upsetting the odds.
On the flip side, the Seahawks managed to disrupt Brock Purdy, forcing him into two turnovers and recovering a fumble from Jake Tonges during a crushing victory over the 49ers. However, while the turnovers were important, their actual impact on the outcome was minimal. More crucially, the Seattle offense, under Darnold’s leadership, managed to keep turnovers down to just five all season. This marked the first occurrence of back-to-back games without turnovers since Mike McDonald took over as head coach in 2024.
Interestingly, past Super Bowl winners have exhibited negative turnover differentials before. For instance, the 2023 Kansas City Chiefs went from -11 in the regular season to +2 in the playoffs, while the 2022 Chiefs showed similar resilience, improving from -3 to +4. The 2015 Denver Broncos also made a notable turnaround from -3 to +4.
Are the Patriots and Rams riding a lucky wave?
In the other half of the conference championship, the New England Patriots and Los Angeles Rams both had positive turnover ratios throughout the season. Except for New England’s wild-card win against the Chargers, they’ve maintained these numbers during the playoffs. However, a bit of luck has played a role for the MVP-candidate quarterback.
It’s a bit surprising that Drake Maye, despite having only five turnovers in his first playoff run, has also fumbled six times—two more than in the entire regular season. The Patriots recovered three of those, including a noteworthy strip sack that Daniel Hunter almost secured, but rookie left tackle Will Campbell managed to avert disaster.
Matthew Stafford, on the other hand, had only one turnover while playing against the Panthers and Bears, though he struggled at Soldier Field with a strip sack and two fumbles. But, it’s interesting to note that the Bears couldn’t capitalize on those mistakes. Perhaps the most pivotal moment of the Rams’ season wasn’t just the choice to go with Caleb Williams, but rather a crucial interception by Puka Nacua late in a game against the Panthers when they were trailing.
Turnovers played a significant role in the NFC Championship match, as the Rams picked off Sam Darnold six times and recovered a fumble from Cooper Kupp over two tight contests. While Seattle managed to recover a fumble during a Week 11 clash, in the end, Stafford’s performance remained strong, keeping the game in check. This upcoming trilogy could hinge on whether Seattle can tackle its offensive issues and if the Rams can force Stafford into making critical errors.
