The start of another exciting NFL season is fast approaching as the Chiefs look to defend their Super Bowl title once again.
Kansas City’s latest win marked the ninth time in the Super Bowl era that a franchise has won consecutive championships, but no team has ever won three in a row.
One of the reasons fans love the NFL is its equality.
Given the league’s salary cap and revenue sharing, it’s not uncommon to see a team that was once struggling at the bottom of its division rise to the top.
As a result, bettors may be able to find some value in the market when predicting which team will finish with the best record during the regular season.
The best-performing NFL teams in recent history
Bookmakers are generally accurate when setting odds in this market.
According to Fantasy Points’ Tom Brolly, teams with odds of +900 or less have won at least some of the best records in six of the past eight seasons.
Only the Ravens (14/1 in 2019, 33/1 in 2023) had better odds and the best record during this time period.
This season, only two teams will start the year at odds below +900 (49ers at +750 and Chiefs at +850).
If you have to choose between the two, schedule strength is one metric you can use to find the best option.
The Chiefs could benefit from a gentler schedule.
Kansas City has the third-toughest schedule in 2023, according to Sharp Football projections.
Due to the NFL’s rotational schedule, the Chiefs played six games home and away against teams in their division, plus every team in the AFC East and NFC North.
As the AFC West winner, Kansas City would face off against the other division winners from the AFC North (Cincinnati), AFC South (Jacksonville), and NFC East (Eagles).
Looking at this season, we see the Chiefs play six games against division rivals.
They will also face teams from the AFC North and NFC South, as well as the NFC West champions, the San Francisco 49ers.
The Chiefs’ schedule is relatively easy on paper, as only one team (Tampa Bay) made the playoffs from the NFC South last year, ranking 12th in difficulty.
Kansas City’s offensive struggles were well-publicized last season, but the team still won the Super Bowl.
The Chiefs added free agent Marquise Brown to bolster their wide receiver position and also selected Texas wide receiver Xavier Worthy with the 28th pick in the first round of the draft.
Kansas City received an “A” from Pro Football Focus as an offseason grade and is a much stronger team this year, well within their ability to achieve their goal of finishing with the best record in the NFL.
Falcons QB upgrade makes them a legitimate contender
If you’re looking for a team with slightly higher odds of winning, the Falcons could surprise you this season.
Atlanta signed Kirk Cousins to a long-term contract. The former Vikings quarterback was the MVP frontrunner last year before suffering a season-ending injury.
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The Falcons have struggled at the quarterback position since trading Matt Ryan to the Colts in exchange for a third-round pick in 2022.
Atlanta will have the easiest schedule of any team due to their position in the NFC South, but if Cousins can stay healthy, the Falcons could be in for a big year.
Best bets on best regular season record: Chiefs (+800, FanDuel), Falcons (18/1, FanDuel)
