Republicans are reeling, furious and worried after Tuesday’s crushing losses. The defeat hit every corner of the party, from moderates and grassroots activists to MAHA supporters and neoconservatives. Predictions of disaster have followed quickly.
But it’s worth looking beyond the familiar idea that power simply swings back and forth. The GOP still has a future, and the party may even emerge stronger after this reckoning. It also has a deep bench of potential leaders. Democrats, meanwhile, may misread what voters were asking them to do.
This is a difficult moment, but a crisis can create an opening.
After Gen. Thomas “Stonewall” Jackson lost his left arm, Robert E. Lee reportedly remarked that Jackson was better off than he was: Jackson had lost his left arm, while Lee had lost his right. The point was that Jackson had been an extraordinary asset.
Who was the Republican Party’s indispensable figure on Tuesday night? Who was the promising leader lost before his time? Iowa’s Zach Lahn, a populist aligned with the MAHA movement, has a case: he defied the White House’s preference and won his primary, but his political story may not be over. Other possible names include Kansas Sen. Roger Marshall and Maine’s Susan Collins. South Carolina’s Darline Graham is a less convincing choice. Overall, the Republican field was thin and uninspiring, leaving few obvious rising stars in the aftermath.
Texas suffered some of the night’s most consequential losses, and rebuilding there should be a priority for Republicans with national ambitions. Still, the state’s political establishment deserves scrutiny. For years, Texas has been held up as a model of conservative politics, yet its business-oriented leaders adapted their labor practices as the political climate changed, shifting from workers brought in from Mexico to workers recruited from India.
Texas conservatives have plenty of reasons to be frustrated. But some of that frustration went toward candidates such as Allen West and Ken Paxton, neither of whom has offered a compelling vision for what comes next. The party has a few years to reflect and develop something better.
Republicans also lost control of both chambers of Congress. That matters, but it calls for a clear-eyed look at what Congress can actually do. The institution has spent decades giving up authority and is now weaker than it has been in a long time. President Donald Trump had also signaled that he was largely finished with legislating, a choice that hurt him.
Democrats campaigned with notable discipline. Abdul El-Sayed and James Talarico, who were elected to the Senate, had strong ties to the anti-Trump resistance, but they rarely made that the focus of their campaigns. For the first time in years, Democrats largely avoided running on identity politics, Russia, Ukraine, or the resistance. Instead, they focused on concerns closer to daily life, including those of straight, white, Christian men.
Their message centered on domestic issues: the economy, the war, and the cost of gas and diesel. They won with it. Yet before Wednesday morning, Democrats were already making threats to investigate and imprison Republicans, from California to Washington. The campaign message may have been strategic, but it worked. It’s hard to see national Democrats staying focused on the issues voters sent them to Washington to address. Retaliation may prove more tempting.
There’s a powerful temptation to investigate political opponents. Alleged insider trading by senior White House officials and Cabinet members might look enviable to Rep. Nancy Pelosi, while Hunter Biden’s art sales seem modest beside the Trump family’s international business activity. Investigations of this kind once had the potential to reshape politics. That may no longer be true.
The uncomfortable reality is that officials who use their positions to enrich themselves may not have broken the law. That leaves Democrats with a message that amounts to little more than calling their opponents’ profits suspicious. Republicans have tried similar attacks against Pelosi and George Soros, while Democrats have targeted the Koch brothers. These efforts mostly produce partisan media coverage and campaign merchandise. The details are complicated, and many Americans are more concerned with the cost of groceries and utilities.
Democrats could focus on the presidents’ children instead, but years of claims involving Russia and Ukraine make it difficult to see why similar arguments about Saudi Arabia or another foreign connection would gain much traction. It may energize Rachel Maddow’s audience, but the broader public may not follow along or care very much.
People will care if inflation remains high. They will care if food and energy costs don’t fall. And they may grow tired of the outrage-heavy cable news performances that have replaced meaningful work in Congress.
They may direct that anger at Democrats.
In 2016, the Trump and Bernie Sanders campaigns were among the most striking political spectacles. Both drew enormous energy and gave voice to deep frustration.
No American leader has yet come close to answering that discontent. The grievances remain: Washington still feels corrupt, the country remains tied up in foreign conflicts, and even with the border closed, the pace of legal and illegal demographic change continues to unsettle people and affect the economy. It’s a dangerous moment, but it also creates an opportunity.
During the Korean War’s Battle of Chosin Reservoir, Gen. Lewis “Chesty” Puller reportedly joked that being surrounded meant the Marines could fire in every direction. Republicans could find themselves in a similar position two years from now. Political fortunes change, and dozens of Republican-leaning districts will be competitive. A new generation of populist candidates could learn from the failures of party elders and offer the kind of politics voters say they want.
The party has capable people waiting in the wings, and the next generation has room to step forward. Democratic overreach may follow, and another election is not far off. This won’t be solved by assuming the pendulum will swing back. It will take work, and Republicans should begin now.
