Most automatic bids have already been placed in various locations, and the time for the big dance is fast approaching.
Here are two Final Four futures to add to your portfolio before prices correct after Sunday’s “NCAA Tournament Selection Show.”
Baylor advances to Final Four (+800)
No matter how you look at it, the Bears have the goods. They are led by a coach who has a national championship ring and has made it past the first round of the tournament five times in a row.
On the floor, Baylor has gradually improved, ranking just outside the top 10 in Bart Torbic’s adjusted offensive efficiency metric since Feb. 1.
And the Bears’ zone defense gave the team a good fit for Big 12 play. According to ShotQuality, BU’s defense ranks him eighth in the nation.
Langston Love may be the cornerstone for coach Scott Drew. Baylor’s sixth man is averaging double figures (11 points) off the bench, but has only played once since Feb. 21.
A lingering knee injury kept him out of the Big 12 Tournament, but Drew says he’s feeling better every day. He should benefit from the extra rest leading up to the NCAA Tournament.
For many top offensive teams, this is extremely important when considering favorable draws in the futures market. However, the Bears have proven they can score and can beat elite teams.
They took Houston to overtime and defeated No. 12 Iowa State at home.
KenPom’s Adjusted Defensive Efficiency Index ranks the Cougars and Cyclones first and second, respectively.
Baylor has perimeter shooting (40 percent, No. 5 nationally), improved low-post play thanks to Yves Missi’s breakout freshman campaign, and has repeatedly proven it can compete with elite competition.
And at the top of this future, March will focus on playing point guard, and Baylor has a great player in Ray J. Dennis.
The move to Toledo has started over 140 games in his career and could impact the game in a variety of ways.
As a facilitator, he has performed 11 times in the past two months and recorded more than eight assists. And as a scorer, he has put up more than his 20 points against four Quad 1 opponents.
His 21 points against top-ranked Houston was especially impressive considering the relentless on-ball pressure from the Cougars’ Jamal Shead.
As of publication, Bracket Matrix is calling for Baylor to earn the No. 3 seed in the Big Dance.
This allows them to avoid powerhouses like UConn, Purdue, and Houston until the Elite Eight, making this +800 price even more attractive.
South Florida advances to Final Four (125/1)
Last season, two mid-major players advanced to the Final Four.
Florida Atlantic won behind an incredible backcourt, and San Diego State held the two teams to just one point in a low-scoring game.
South Florida has the foundation to replicate San Diego State’s success.
Defensively, Amir Abdul Rahim’s team defends the 3-point line very well (30.9 percent, 29th), isolating opponents more than they would like.
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The Bulls aren’t beating themselves up, as evidenced by their +2.2 turnover margin (48th). And it can ignite from beyond the arc. USF leads the AAC in 3-point percentage (38.1 percent) during conference play.
This explains why the Bulls always seem to come out victorious in tough situations. In games decided by a difference of 5 points or less, they have 8 wins and 2 losses.
But one statistic that stands out above the rest is Evan Miya’s Opponent Adjustment Index, which measures how well a team plays against quality opponents.
South Florida is the fourth-best team in the country when it comes to “punch-ups” against high-end opponents.
The Bulls are doing their best to prepare for these situations, and that’s what they need to do to stay strong in March.
