Despite reaching a peak in October 2025, U.S. stock indexes are not getting much attention, overshadowed by the commodity market. The U.S. beef industry has been a hot topic, and while the USDA is doing what it can, the market remains pretty optimistic. Looking at the fundamentals of supply and demand, changes in the U.S. soybean market may also be on the horizon. Guess we’ll just have to wait and see.
As Halloween approaches, there’s a lot to ponder, especially given how eventful this month has been. You might not have realized that U.S. stock indexes soared to new all-time highs, barely making a splash in the news. Seasonal factors play a role, but the S&P 500 saw a roughly 3% increase in October 2025, which aligns with both 5-year and 30-year trends. With that in mind, let’s dive into some complex questions about key products.
Is the U.S. cattle market experiencing a downturn? The President has implied it might, and the USDA appears to be working towards that—although, in stores, prices remain elevated. For instance, I checked beef prices recently and was taken aback. If you’re thinking about stocking your freezer for winter—maybe even considering refinancing a mortgage—the prices are still quite steep. Beef stew meat was around $10.50 per pound, while filet mignon exceeded $35 per pound.
So, is the cattle market truly bearish? When we examine it technically, the situation feels uncertain. The October futures contract (LEV25) hasn’t yet captured a bearish reversal pattern, but if the month closes below September’s settlement price of $231.85, things could shift. As of now, live cattle are priced at $235.275.
In essence, it seems largely stable—but with some caveats. Futures spreads remain stronger than they have in five years, as commercial traders push up prices to meet demand. A friend in the industry pointed out a key question: “Can we really trust these futures spreads?” That’s something that lingers in the minds of many as the month closes. While the expected influx of beef from Argentina doesn’t seem likely, U.S. consumer demand will ultimately dictate the market’s direction. How long will this trend continue? That’s the million-dollar question.
Moving on to the soybean market, is it bullish or not? The buzz around the recent meeting between the U.S. and Chinese presidents is noteworthy. So far, demand for U.S. soybeans hasn’t really shifted. China is slated to purchase a sizable amount, but it’s worth noting that last year, they bought significantly more. Another curious detail from the meeting was the U.S. President calling for nuclear testing to stay competitive internationally. But, I suppose that’s a conversation for another day.
When it comes to the technical side, the national average spot price for soybeans has hit a four-month high, surpassing previous highs. Just last May, the index reached $10.2540, and now it sits at $10.2523. Meanwhile, the Techrium SOYB Fund has also climbed, but is still shy of its record high.
Historically, I’ve leaned towards “no” regarding a bullish market for soybeans, but now it feels like I’m edging towards “maybe.” The National Soybean Index indicates that recent prices are quite high compared to their historical norms. With China’s involvement in the market, it’s not surprising that demand seems to be rising amid other challenges.
All this to say, the soybean demand is likely up amidst various pressures, including the ongoing U.S. government shutdown, leading us to question the reliability of current futures spreads once again.
In summary, while there’s a lot going on both in the beef and soybean markets, it’s hard to pin down a definitive trend. Reactions and opinions are all over the place, leaving us with more questions than answers.
