While it’s a shame that Conor McGregor pulled out of his highly anticipated bout with Michael Chandler, there are still some great fights to keep us entertained on Saturday’s UFC 303 card, including a rematch between Alex Pereira and Jiri Prochazka.
Our best bet is to:
Alex Pereira vs. Jiri Prochazka
The light heavyweight belt is on the line and reigning champion Pereira will be hoping to dethrone the mighty Prochazka.
Pereira stopped Prochazka in the second round at UFC 295 last November in a decision that many viewed as questionable.
Prochazka was immobilized after receiving a right and left hook combination as the Czech tried to push Pereira against the fence.
Prochazka was more than capable of staying in the fight, though, and pulled Pereira to the ground just as the referee intervened.
Can we expect the same outcome in this epic championship rematch? Probably not.
The main problem Prochazka faces is that Pereira disguises his leg kicks so well that he has no adequate way to defend himself against them.
The power, accuracy, finesse and finesse of his leg kicks make him arguably the best in the world in that regard.
Prochazka will have to withstand some dangerous kicks if he wants to win, but if anyone can take a beating and not go down, it’s him.
Plus, Prochazka now knows what’s coming and has no doubt been watching video and working on his leg strength to avoid a similar fate.
Few fighters have the power of Prochazka, and he can change the trajectory of a fight with just one punch.
Also, since 2013, he has only been knocked out or knocked out one other time.
Prochazka landed some clean punches in his first bout with Pereira and I expect him to have even more success on Saturday.
recommendation: Prochaska on the moneyline (+130, BetMGM).
Brian Ortega vs. Diego Lopez
Ortega, ranked No. 3 in the flyweight division, will step into the Octagon to face Lopez, ranked No. 14, in this captivating co-main event.
Surprisingly (to some), Lopez enters this bout as the -140 favorite, despite Ortega being ranked higher.
Either way, Lopez accomplished his mission, winning three straight fights in the first round and boasting a 3-1 record in the UFC. He also has a 3.5-inch longer reach than Ortega.
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Ortega has plenty of experience facing elite fighters and going five rounds, which could be something to look out for in this bout.
Lopez has had great success recently, including early wins over unranked fighters, but his fitness hasn’t been tested as much as Ortega’s.
The bout is set for 1.5 total rounds, but given Ortega’s experience and his inevitable strategy of testing Lopez’s stamina and prolonging the bout, it would be shocking to see Lopez knock Ortega out in the first 1.5 rounds.
Ortega knows the power he has in Lopez’s hands, so he’ll have to be patient.
Typically, we hate betting on big favorites, but the over at -185 is the clear bet here.
recommendation: Over 1.5 rounds (-185, DraftKings).
