UFC 299 takes place in Miami and is one of the biggest fight cards we’ve seen in a long time.
The headliner for this card is Sean O’Malley vs. Marlon Vera.
The two have fought in the past, with O’Malley suffering an ankle injury and Vera winning by TKO.
O’Malley is a heavy favorite heading into this fight despite losing in his August 2020 fight.
UFC 299 will feature 14 fights.
UFC 299 odds and picks
O’Malley is one of the few favorites above -200, unlike last week when multiple favorites could easily cash in above -500.
Last week, he was up 18-1 with five minutes to go, but Shamil Gadzhiev appeared to be sent off after the fourth round, allowing Jairzinho Rozenstrik to take control and grab a TKO victory.
Still, it was a profitable evening at the office and a potentially career night. 2-2 for a profit of 1.45 units.
He posted a season total of 7-10, earned 6.91 total units, and earned an ROI of 46.69 percent.
UFC 299 begins at 6pm ET with early prelims, followed by prelims at 8pm on ESPN and transitions to PPV around 10pm.
Sean O’Malley vs. Marlon Vera Prediction
(-275/+220)
If you’re looking to bet on “Tito” Vera, you shouldn’t bet before the fight. O’Malley is a historically fast starter and Vera is a very slow starter, so you could absolutely catch Vera around 10/1 after the second round.
O’Malley completely dominated the first fight between these two before appearing to twist his ankle and after a few misses he could no longer stand. Vera lands a few elbows and the fight is over.
Vera won by TKO, but it certainly looked like O’Malley was about to pull off a masterclass with a TKO victory.
It’s wise to expect more of the same, even though the odds continue to fluctuate, with O’Malley starting at -198 and nearing -300 in some books.
If this fight happens, it would be a good bet to bet on Vera in round 3, but not before the fight.
Here’s hoping O’Malley ends this soon.
Pick: O’Malley wins rounds 1, 2, and 3 (+400, FanDuel)
Dustin Poirier vs. Benoit Saint-Denis Prediction
(+180/-225)
Poirier is a great bet here before the game and a fast starter with plenty of volume early on.
What’s troubling about this five-round bout is that Poirier gave up several times during the grappling exchange, especially against former champion Charles Oliveira, where he clearly won the first round before dropping the second round. He landed a standing rear-naked choke. The beginning of round 3.
This is my expectation for the fight.
Poirier will have a hard time defeating Benoît Saint-Denis, a former French special forces turned fighter.
This fight advances to a later round, with Saint-Denis winning.
Pick: SGP: Saint-Denis wins over 1.5 rounds (+120, bet365)
Jailton Almeida vs. Curtis Blaydes Prediction
(-108/-112)
The featured match in the preliminaries will feature Curtis “Razor” Blaydes vs. highly anticipated heavyweight contender Jaylton Almeida.
Blaydes has been knocked out a number of times recently, and there are many concerns that his jaw may be out of whack. Almeida isn’t the best striker to take advantage of this, but he loves to grapple and Blaydes doesn’t shy away from that aspect of his game either.
Blaydes and Alemida are scheduled to meet in November 2023, and you may remember that Almeida was the -188 favorite to win that fight. Almeida dominated Derrick Lewis as a substitute for that game.
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For reasons unknown, Almeida is down to -110 against Blaydes here, which is probably a reasonable line.
There’s a lot of value here for a potential star player. Almeida has never closed below -375 since joining the UFC roster.
He is a potential stallion, but Blaze hasn’t done enough to earn anyone’s confidence in this slot.
Pick: Almeida ML (-108, Caesars) | Almeida via submission (+380, BetRivers)
