The UK and US could vote to choose a new government within weeks of each other this year, with Chancellor Rishi Sunak saying the “actual assumption” is a vote in late 2024.
British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak narrowed the scope of a general election, saying it was likely to be held “later this year” without giving a specific date. There is speculation that an election will be held this spring, and legally it could be held any time between now and the end of January 2025.
In the UK, a short-lived experiment with fixed-term parliaments failed in the past decade, but parliaments last for up to five years unless terminated early, and this has historically been the norm. Although dissolving parliament is the prerogative of the sovereign, it is actually the prime minister's choice when to hold elections, potentially giving the incumbent a strong advantage.
Sir Keir Starmer spoke very seriously about change and hope. Does he really represent change? Not a chance.
— Nigel Farage (@Nigel_Farage) January 4, 2024
times report Mr Sunak said he was not considering an early election because he had a lot of things he wanted to do in terms of governance. His “working assumption” was therefore that there would be no elections during the first six months of the year, but rather elections would be held “in the second half of the year.” Given that the Conservative Party's performance in elections depends in part on people's sense of wealth, this decision is likely to be influenced by the economy, and although it is unlikely to improve significantly within six months, it will improve somewhat. There is a possibility that things will turn around.
Although small tax cuts announced last year are due to come into effect this month and are significantly higher than the Tories' tax increases during 13 years in government, the chancellor still hopes for positive reviews from voters. Maybe.
Regardless of election timing announcements or not, election campaigns are undoubtedly underway today, with the leadership of the two main rival parties, the legacy-right globalist centrist Conservative Party and the legacy-left globalist centrist Labor Party. People are making headlines all over the place. The Prime Minister spoke in Mansfield, while Labour's Mr Starmer spoke in Bristol, pledging change but trashing the idea of tax cuts.
The former Brexit Party against the Conservative Party, given their own dismal track record in many policy areas where there may be a credible argument that their natural supporters care and vote. , now the threat from the right by the Reform Party is now the theme. There was a lot of discussion. Brexit leader Nigel Farage has teased a return to frontline politics, describing the situation as the “worst nightmare” for Conservative MPs hoping to keep their jobs.
Whether Reformers can hope to enter Parliament is in doubt – Britain's electoral system punishes small parties and new entrants, and Reformist predecessors Brexit and UKIP have no meaningful place in the UK Parliament. It has never been very successful – it certainly has enough support to deny the Conservatives seats. Boris Johnson won the largest Tory majority in a generation in 2019 after Mr Farage ensured his supporters could vote for the Conservatives and give Brexit a supermajority in the House of Commons. This is due in no small part to his decision to resign as a candidate.
As it stands, there are the usual caveats that British pollsters are having a hard time reading the mood of conservative-leaning voters, but the latest polls show Labor with a strong lead, hovering in the mid-40s. are doing. Opinion polls show the Conservative Party in second place with a wide margin in the mid-20s, while the Reform Party and the Liberal Democrats are competing for third place with around 10%.
