Ukraine can no longer win

As the two-year anniversary of Russia’s invasion approaches and the latest aid package for Ukraine stalls in Congress, we must keep our eyes firmly on the future.

There is no way for Ukraine to win this war. American aid will not change this reality.

Two years ago, the Ukrainian military quickly defied expectations. Days before Russia’s major coalition invasion, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Mark Milley, speaking for the U.S. military, predicted to Congress that Kiev would: Will fall within 72 hours.

Many military analysts similarly predicted that Russian forces would quickly rout the overwhelmingly fighting Ukrainians.american leaders Urged Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy to step down So that the Russian army doesn’t assassinate him.

These predictions about Russia’s immediate success are progress Ukraine has been capable and prepared since the time of Russia Annexation of Crimea in 2014.they too overrated Russian military readiness, air superiority, and unity of command.

A year ago, all signs were encouraging. The Ukrainian army shed blood, suspended Contrary to expectations and head to the eastern territory. A successful counterattack allowed Ukraine to regain her territory. south. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy has defiantly declared that next year will be the year of “we are invincible.” American aid to this country provided artillery and anti-tank weapons as a king’s ransom. Ukraine Security Assistance Initiativeand the flow seemed to be continuous.

Inspired by Ukraine’s astonishing success against a much larger and more advanced military, Western countries were enthusiastic about supporting Zelenskiy and his military. Sadly, all these metrics have led to unrealistic expectations.

The situation today is difficult. The fighting was brutally slowed down in Russia’s favor.Ukraine lacks troops and munitions, while Russia keep both Plenty.of long-term plana high-risk, months-long Ukraine spring 2023 counterattack We’re screwedwith Ukraine unable to regain territory Confiscated by Russia.Support for Zelenskiy finally in Ukraine and Western countries Slipped.American aid is stalled in Congress, and the U.S. tired About war funds.

For much of the past two years, predictions of an immediate Russian victory have been followed by analysts and policymakers moving in the other direction with a series of new misjudgments. paper tigerthat the generals would turn against Putin; Ukraine will eliminate Russia in Donbass.

The reality, two years later, is that Ukraine has no path to victory, at least not in terms of pushing Russian forces back to the Line of Control in 2021.After the Ukrainian army abandoned Avdiivka through part of the war the fiercest battle — The most significant loss or gain by either party. 9 Months — Almost all the advantages belong to Russia.

The capture of Avdiivka does not materially change the war, but it does change the momentum. Moscow can drop massive amounts of bodies, tanks, artillery, and drones to destroy the exhausted Ukrainian military. Ukraine is exhausted and at a disadvantage, struggle To recruit new troops. The best thing Ukraine can do now is to fight Russia and reach a negotiated settlement that preserves its sovereignty, territorial integrity, and security against new Russian aggression. Even these provisions may seem unrealistic now.

In the first year after Russia’s full-scale invasion (from February 2022 to February 2023), the Ukrainian military overcame significant technological and personnel disadvantages.They did so primarily against Americans javelin throwStinger, multiple rocket system.

During this period, Ukraine mainly bipartisan Assistance in DC Throughout the next year, American aid — include Dozens of tanks, more than 100 Bradley fighting vehicles, and more than 100 Strykers continued to fight in Ukraine.During this period, support among Republicans in Congress was began to decline.

Even if the House approves the currently proposed aid package, it is clear that the flow of arms is nearing an end. Without a continuous supply of these weapons, Ukraine will eventually collapse.even F-16 fighter jet The US says it will send ships to Ukraine in the coming months It won’t change the flow. The F-16 requires a long, smooth runway. Fighter jets will have a hard time taking off and landing on bombed-out Ukrainian airstrips.

Russia also has a time advantage. While President Putin can guide Russia along a single strategic trajectory regardless of the length of the war, the United States is subject to the whims of democracy. The White House and seats in Congress will be swapped. When voters get tired of supporting other countries, policies change.

Geopolitics changes rapidly. The world’s turmoil over the past two years has distracted the United States from supporting Ukraine. Hamas’s astonishingly brutal incursion into Israeli territory last October and Israel’s gruesome retaliation became a major international focus for the White House and Congress. Iran has launched a low-level war against the United States through proxy forces in Iraq and Syria.China promised to invade Taiwan. All these catastrophes require attention and money (elements with limited supply) that would otherwise be spent on Ukraine.

Adding to the uncertainty is the impending US presidential election this year. Biden’s most likely challenger, Donald Trump, has deep mistrust of NATO. His recent comments reinforce this and suggest leniency towards Russia acting against NATO members who fail to meet their treaty obligations.

Given all these headwinds and the significant strategic stakes involved, it is important to consider the path forward in light of changing dynamics.

When considering aid options for Ukraine, U.S. policymakers and their constituents need to assess how long cash and arms will continue to flow and to what ends. It will take more than a year of fighting to reach a favorable settlement, or at least a negotiated settlement. Putin has no incentive to stop fighting and has every incentive to continue attacking and wait until the enemy’s troops and ammunition are exhausted and the patience of U.S. policymakers is exhausted.

None of this is fair to the Ukrainian people, who have pinned their hopes for sovereignty on American promises. But that is the tragic reality.

The $60 billion aid package on hold in Congress won’t significantly change the future. This is a long battle and will require additional assistance. One day the spigot will be turned off, perhaps soon aid will be cut off, and Ukraine’s fate will be decided.

Colonel (retired) Joe Buccino He is a research analyst at the Defense Innovation Board and former communications director for U.S. Central Command. From February to November 2022, he served as Head of Public Affairs for the NATO Support Mission in Europe. His opinions do not necessarily reflect those of the U.S. Department of Defense or any other organization.