Two years after Russian President Vladimir Putin launched a full-scale invasion across the border, the spigot of U.S. aid to Ukraine has dried up, a reversal from the strong bipartisan response early in the war. did.
The United States poured deadly aid into Kiev in the weeks and months following the Kremlin attack, but late December was the last time the United States provided significant military aid to Kiev. And it’s been more than a year since the last new aid was passed.
A proposed $60.1 billion grant to Ukraine is currently stalling in Congress as Kiev’s military struggles with dwindling supplies, but the holdup is giving Russia a boost as the conflict marks its second anniversary on Saturday. It’s being regained.
“There is no question that success on the battlefield will depend on the type and quantity of weapons provided by the West,” said Wayne Jordash, a human rights lawyer based in Ukraine’s capital.
The battlefield effects of parliament’s failure to pass further aid were made jarringly clear this week with the loss of the eastern city of Avdiivka, which was captured by Russian forces after Kiev forces were forced to withdraw. –This is a huge symbolic loss for Ukraine.
“They don’t have enough ammunition, they don’t have enough artillery, and that’s partly because we can’t supply it,” Pentagon deputy spokeswoman Sabrina Singh said Thursday. “Frankly, we can’t give it to them because of Congressional inaction.”
At issue is the Senate’s $95 billion bipartisan foreign aid package, which includes aid to Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan, and passed by the chamber overwhelmingly 70-30 on February 13. The bill has stalled in the House over conservative demands to combine any aid to Ukraine with border security policies. Parliament is currently in recess, ensuring that the issue will not be taken up again until mid-March.
If approved, the dollars would bring total U.S. investment in the Ukraine-Russia war to $170 billion and provide significant support to Ukraine, which has been without reliable shipments of U.S. arms and equipment since late 2023. .
Luke Coffey, a senior fellow at the Hudson Institute and a former adviser to the UK Ministry of Defence, said the aid disparity was “very worrying”.
In the fall, the United States still had dollars and arms in the pipeline, softening the impact of the gridlock in Congress. But fast forward to February, he said, and the Pentagon lacks the funds to replenish its own stockpiles, and the effects of U.S. inaction are beginning to be felt on the battlefield.
“You would have to be naive and extreme to think that if we continue providing munitions and weapons for a year and then suddenly stop them, there will be no impact,” Coffey told The Hill. “More than 450 days have passed since Congress last passed aid to Ukraine.”
Previous contracts with industry may still allow some weapons to trickle into Ukraine, but major U.S. involvement is on hold.
This is bad news for Ukraine. Ukraine has struggled through the war, making only incremental gains since November 2022, when the winter stalemate emerged. Although Ukrainian counterattacks in June largely failed to break through the Russian lines, Kiev forces achieved victories over the Russian fleet in the Black Sea.
The U.S. has delivered more, including Patriot missiles that arrived in Ukraine in April, HIMARS rocket systems delivered in June, controversial U.S.-supplied cluster munitions transferred in July, and Abrams tanks that arrived in Kiev. Although it has steadily increased its support to Ukraine through advanced U.S.-made weapons, September – These systems require artillery, ammunition, and spare parts to keep them operational.
That’s why the new U.S. aid package is so important to Ukraine’s fight, said Jordash, managing partner at the Global Rights Compliance law firm.
“The situation we have now is one where Ukraine doesn’t seem to be able to actually defend itself. I think we’re starting to see that as Russia slowly starts to advance on the front lines. “That’s obviously very concerning,” he said.
Week by week, month by month, more lives are being lost, whether because air defense systems fail to protect civilians or because Ukrainian soldiers do not have the firepower to fight back.
“The reality is that more Ukrainians are dying because of the lack of action in Congress on military policy,” Jodas said.
While partisan rancor and roadblocks are common in Washington, D.C., aid to conflict-stricken Ukraine was initially a rare area of bipartisan agreement.
Shortly after Russian troops flooded the Ukrainian border in a major attack on February 24, 2022, Washington and its allies sent millions of dollars worth of weapons and equipment to Kiev, including shoulder-slung Stinger and Javelin missiles and ammunition. I was in a hurry. , rifles, helmets and medical supplies.
It was the type of equipment suitable for what many expected to be a short war. But after Ukraine successfully defended its capital and forced Moscow’s forces from the north, the conflict turned into a violent war in which Ukraine needed larger and more advanced weapons to defend itself. By April 2022, a new phase of fighting had emerged, with Russia deploying troops in southern and eastern Ukraine, with the main focus on Donbas, Ukraine’s industrial heartland.
By then, the United States and its Western allies were rushing long-range weapons into Ukraine, including America’s first howitzers, anti-ship missiles, tanks, armed drones, and aircraft-shooting systems. These weapons were intended to thwart Russian attacks by bringing them to their knees. A wider range of attacks.
The Democratic-led Congress has approved $113 billion worth of aid and military aid to Ukraine’s government and allies throughout 2022 in a series of emergency funding packages.
This support was successful, and in May a Ukrainian counterattack was able to drive back Russian forces near Kharkov. Further Ukrainian counterattacks in the south and northeast enabled them to retake most of Kharkov Oblast in September and the city of Kherson in November, and Russian forces withdrew to the east bank of the Dnieper River.
When the HIMARS rocket system was delivered to Ukraine in June, “we suddenly realized that Russian logistics were being effectively attacked and we had to pull back the logistics, which made a front-line attack much more difficult.” That gave Ukraine some breathing space,” Jodarsh said. .
However, Congress has not approved large-scale aid to Ukraine since Republicans took control of the House of Representatives in January 2023. And Ukraine’s breathing room was replaced by Russia regaining control of the war.
“It’s no longer a stalemate. Russia has regained momentum,” former Secretary of Defense Gates told The Washington Post this week. “All I’m reading is that the Russians are on the offensive along a 600-mile front.”
The cracks in U.S. support have steadily widened over the past year. In September, 93 Republicans voted in favor of an amendment to the defense spending bill that would prohibit all future aid to Ukraine, compared to 126 Republicans who voted against it. This is up from 70 people who voted in favor of a similar amendment in July.
No one knows anymore when or if House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-Louisiana) will allow a vote on the stalled Senate-passed bill. And it seriously threatens Biden’s promise that the United States will stand by Ukraine to the end.
“The Biden administration underestimated the longevity of the bipartisan agreement that existed last year,” said Charles Kapchan, who served on the National Security Council staff in the Obama and Clinton administrations and is now on the staff of the Council on Foreign Relations. I think it was,” he said.
“They underestimated the power of the America First narrative at a time when issues such as the southern border and the hardships of life in an era of inflation weigh heavily on voters’ minds.”
Coffey said the worst-case scenario if aid continues to stagnate is that “Russia begins to break through in some areas of the front line because the Ukrainian side lacks ammunition and the necessary equipment.”
But Jordash had a more dire outlook.
“I would be very surprised if a large number of missile attacks did not occur as Russia tries to use up its remaining weapons systems for air defense. “I fully expect that,” he said.
“Ukraine is in for a very difficult few months.”
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