Ukraine is NOT losing, US assistance must continue

Parliamentarians opposed to aiding Ukraine share a common argument with the Kremlin in that Ukraine is losing the war with Russia anyway. I just returned from Ukraine, where I met with Ukrainian government officials and participated in security meetings, and I found substantial evidence to the contrary.

Yes, the obstacles are high for Ukraine. Russia has the advantage of rich human resources and the ability to recruit more combatants through favorable contracts. One Ukrainian official said Russian women were “selling out their alcoholic husbands.” In total, Russia reportedly has 10 times more firepower than Ukraine, with about seven times more artillery and mortars alone. And the failure of the U.S. Congress to approve additional assistance in a timely manner has increased the loss of lives and territory for Ukrainians on the front lines, and the continued lack of air defenses. If you delay any longer, you will be in real danger.

Nevertheless, not a single Ukrainian city that has surrendered in this conflict so far represents a strategic loss. So far, Ukrainians continue to hold key positions along the Dnieper River. One Western journalist told me that their reporting showed the overwhelming determination of Ukrainians under direct fire. Commanders now have to ration weapons, but morale remains strong enough to hold the front line.

Despite these challenges, there is growing data pointing in a positive direction. First is the ocean area. Over the last year, Ukraine has been carrying out systematic destruction. Most of the Russian Black Sea Fleet, the remaining ships were forced to retreat into Russian waters.Ukraine uses long-range Storm Shadow missiles and its own maritime drones established a trade corridor It hugs the NATO side of the Black Sea along Romania and Bulgaria.

Normal trade at pre-February 2022 levels has resumed, with key commodities such as grains, iron ore and steel being transported to foreign markets, which could bring Ukraine at least billions of dollars in annual revenue in the future. There is sex. And just Sunday, Ukraine carried out a further series of successful attacks against Russia’s Black Sea Fleet. Collisions with two landing craft and military installations in Crimea.

In the past few weeks, Ukraine has succeeded in destroying or disabling around six Russian oil refineries that serve its domestic market and military (it has attacked more than a dozen in the past two years), and has destroyed Russian exports. Capacity may also be reduced. , the Financial Times reports that Washington Warns Ukraine to halt due to concerns over rising global oil prices.

Around the same time, pro-Ukrainian Russian forces conducted military operations. Raid on military towns along Russia’s borders, forcing the partial evacuation of civilians from those towns. Although they did not occupy or hold any territory, this was the first military invasion from Ukraine into Russia after World War II. Moscow march last July From the territory of Ukraine, led by Evgeny Prigozhin. This is a blow to Putin’s claim to maintain Russia’s security and stability. Indeed, in the aftermath of this horrific incident, the sense of unrest in the region spread to the capital. Terrorist attack on Moscow concert hall. It is now a proven fact that President Putin is unable to fully protect his borders and his people.

Although Ukrainians do not necessarily welcome a new Russian attack in the spring or summer, they believe it is likely. Officials we spoke to said Putin needed to show progress, some kind of victory, to justify new mobilization and was more likely to act on the ground now, emboldened by the sham elections. , explained that there is a possibility of trying to open a land route to Crimea again. . But such a decision could plant the seeds of military overreach. This may be facilitated by the weakness of Russia’s attempts to expand defense production. Russia is dependent on Western technology and tools, and tightening export controls under the current circumstances could prevent Russia from accessing the resources it needs.

And perhaps the biggest game-changer could be Ukraine. Closer to receiving $330 billion in frozen assets, of which $217 billion is held in Belgium and the rest in the United States. If the EU and US can agree on a mechanism to transfer these assets to Ukraine before the G7 summit in June, this would be the strongest signal to Putin that time is not on his side. This large amount of money will allow Ukraine to fight and rebuild for years to come. It would also ease concerns of Poles and others about the impact on EU agricultural support funds, smoothing Ukraine’s path to EU membership.

Ukraine is winning. The only thing that would change this reality would be if the US and Europe stopped providing aid. Most Europeans recognize the stakes are too great to stop supporting Ukraine. Most members of Congress also understand the implications for our national security. We should not let a minority in Congress drive American policy toward reckless inaction.

Dr. Evelyn N. Farkas is Executive Director of the McCain Institute and former Assistant Secretary of Defense for Russia, Ukraine, and Eurasia.