Next week’s gubernatorial elections might reveal more about the ongoing government shutdown than the actual shutdown informs these races. Interestingly, the gubernatorial contests in New Jersey and Virginia seem to be largely unaffected by the funding crisis. Still, the outcomes may serve as an indicator of public sentiment regarding responsibility for the ongoing discord in Washington, D.C.
But that’s contingent on the results being significant. Bill Wichterman, who formerly worked as a special assistant to President George W. Bush, suggests that both major parties seem entrenched in their positions, with little inclination to change anytime soon. Having observed previous shutdown disagreements as a policy advisor for Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist (R-Tenn.) and in various other government roles, he feels only a remarkable election result could sway legislators.
“If, say, Democrats score a 15-point victory instead of a typical 5-point win, that would definitely turn heads,” Wichterman stated regarding the potential for Democratic wins in both states. “But if it’s just a usual five-point margin, I doubt Republicans would find it concerning.”
Currently, both Democratic candidates, Abigail Spanberger in Virginia and Mikie Sherrill in New Jersey, have a lead over their Republican opponents, with the latter, Winsome Earl Sears and Jack Ciatarelli, trailing by less than 10 points.
In the wake of the presidential election, Wichterman noted it wasn’t surprising to see minority parties performing well—this aligns with historical patterns in how the public responds to new presidents from either party.
“If Democrats take both states, I don’t think Republicans would be shocked. They are blue states after all,” Wichterman remarked. However, he mentioned that if the Republican gubernatorial candidate manages an upset, it could throw Democrats into disarray. “They’ll question what’s happening if they lose,” he added.
On October 1, the government ran out of funds due to lawmakers failing to finalize a short-term spending bill proposed by Republicans that would have maintained operations until November 21. Democrats contested the bill multiple times, initially wanting to extend COVID-19 aid for various programs. Republicans, on the other hand, flatly rejected these proposals, insisting they had nothing to do with the funding impasse.
The lack of federal funding hasn’t noticeably affected state-level elections. Practically speaking, the federal government plays a minor role, mainly allowing states to run their own elections. Federal funding does help states update election security, but it’s often minimal.
A noteworthy example is that the Election Assistance Commission (EAC) doesn’t directly manage state-level elections; instead, it aids with infrastructure grants through existing laws. New Jersey and Virginia already received funding of $272,700 each through a recent grant.
Wichterman proposed that another factor influencing the election’s impact on the shutdown could be the White House’s reactions post-election. Even if Congress members retain their positions, responses from President Trump concerning government funding might compel them to alter their stances.
To date, Trump has remained focused on other matters. Most recently, he traveled to Japan to meet with officials, seemingly unfazed by the ongoing issues.
“I think Democrats were hoping for Trump to step in,” Wichterman noted on the situation. “But he hasn’t. Having participated in many shutdown confrontations since 1995, I understand the frustration on the side that appears to be getting sidelined, yet that doesn’t seem to be the case for Republicans now.”
Democrats shared a similar view, as they rejected a funding bill for essential government workers, anticipating that the stalemate in Congress would persist until Trump personally joined in the negotiations. Senator Chris Van Hollen (D-Md.) asserted that the only Republican voice that truly matters is the president’s.
“When he says, ‘Jump,’ they respond, ‘How high?’ He’s the one who needs to engage in these talks,” Van Hollen conveyed when asked about the ongoing negotiations to resolve the shutdown.
