The initial estimate for the US S&P Global Composite PMI for June came in at 52.2, which is an increase from May’s figure of 51.5.
Manufacturing output registered at 55.7 this month, marking a rise from the previous reading of 55.1 and surpassing the market forecast of 54.8. Additionally, the Services PMI was recorded at 51.3, exceeding both the anticipated 51 and May’s result of 50.7.
Market Reaction
Despite the S&P Global data having minimal impact, the U.S. dollar (USD) is still enjoying solid gains during the trading day.
USD Price Today
The following table illustrates how the US dollar (USD) is performing against major currencies. Today, it was strongest against the Australian dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | Australian Dollar | New Zealand Dollar | Swiss Franc | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.26% | 0.22% | -0.08% | 0.10% | 0.88% | 0.56% | -0.10% | |
| EUR | -0.26% | -0.04% | -0.35% | -0.17% | 0.59% | 0.29% | -0.37% | |
| GBP | -0.22% | 0.04% | -0.28% | -0.12% | 0.66% | 0.33% | -0.31% | |
| JPY | 0.08% | 0.35% | 0.28% | 0.16% | 0.94% | 0.63% | -0.05% | |
| CAD | -0.10% | 0.17% | 0.12% | -0.16% | 0.79% | 0.48% | -0.20% | |
| Australian Dollar | -0.88% | -0.59% | -0.66% | -0.94% | -0.79% | -0.30% | -0.99% | |
| New Zealand Dollar | -0.56% | -0.29% | -0.33% | -0.63% | -0.48% | 0.30% | -0.68% | |
| Swiss Franc | 0.10% | 0.37% | 0.31% | 0.05% | 0.20% | 0.99% | 0.68% |
This heat map showcases the percentage changes between key currencies, with the base currency in the left column and the quote currency across the top. For instance, if you select USD and navigate to JPY, the percentage displayed signifies USD (base) to JPY (quote).
This section below reflects a preview of the S&P Global Purchasing Managers Index report.
- The preliminary S&P Global PMI for June suggests steady business growth.
- US statistics might impact the US dollar differently under the leadership of Chairman Kevin Warsh.
- EUR/USD trades close to its 2026 low of 1.1411, showing a pronounced bearish trend.
The S&P Global June Purchasing Managers Economic Indicator Report has been released for major countries, and US figures are slated for Tuesday. These surveys of senior executives are viewed as early indicators of a nation’s economic vitality.
Market participants anticipate the S&P Global Services PMI to be 51, up from 50.7 in May, while S&P Global Manufacturing Output is expected to slightly decrease to 54.7 from 55.1 last month. The composite PMI, which includes data from both manufacturing and services, was 51.5 in May.
S&P Global reports on manufacturing and services activities through separate PMIs, the Manufacturing PMI and Services PMI, and also provides an overall PMI based on a weighted combination of the two. A reading above 50 typically indicates expansion, while below that suggests contraction.
Flash or interim versions often have a significant impact on the US dollar (USD).
What to Anticipate from the Upcoming S&P Global PMI Report?
This time, the impact could be more pronounced than in previous years. Last week, the Federal Reserve held a monetary policy meeting, which did not focus on interest rates but rather on changes in decision-making and communication. The Summary Economic Projections (SEP) dot plot indicates that policymakers now anticipate a rate hike this year, contrasting with earlier projections of a rate cut.
However, market participants were more anxious about Chairman Warsh’s notable reduction of forward guidance. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) statement was significantly shortened, and Warsh chose not to include his own insights in the dot plot. He is clearly shifting the focus from instructions to high-level data.
While the S&P Global PMI might not drastically alter the data landscape, it could lead market participants to reconsider the data without forward guidance.
Moreover, the USD has been strengthening amid ongoing uncertainties. Following some cautious developments in the Middle East, the dollar continues its post-Fed rally. Optimism had previously surged after the US and Iran agreed to extend a ceasefire and further negotiations. However, recent reports of Iran’s intent to close a critical shipping route have dampened that confidence, though negotiations are ongoing.
The dollar is also facing upward pressure from growing expectations regarding potential interest rate hikes from the Federal Reserve by year’s end. While Warsh’s comments are more hawkish—even without strong forward guidance—half of the FOMC’s voting members are now leaning toward encouraging rate hikes.
Returning to the PMI numbers, they are expected to validate ongoing economic expansion in the US. As long as the figures remain in the expansion zone, small fluctuations won’t likely have a significant impact. Certainly, better-than-expected outcomes will enhance the US dollar, while disappointing results could prompt a short-term decline.
Additionally, it’s crucial to recognize that the PMI encompasses subcomponents related to inflation and employment, which can either support or contradict market expectations about future interest rates. With inflation pressures mounting, a rise in those indexes could escalate rate hike expectations and further bolster the dollar.
When Will the June US S&P Global PMI Preliminary Numbers Be Released and What Could It Mean for EUR/USD?
The S&P Global Manufacturing, Services, and Composite PMI report is set to be published at 13:45 Japan time on Tuesday, and it’s expected to indicate ongoing growth in US business activity this June.
“The EUR/USD pair is currently several pips above its 2026 low of 1.1411 reached in March, even though it appears short-term oversold,” remarked Valeria Bednarik, Principal Analyst at FXStreet. The bearish momentum is strong enough to sustain potential future lows. Technical analysis shows that daily indicators briefly moved into negative territory before turning down again, while the pair has dropped below all moving averages. The 20-day simple moving average (SMA) has firmly sealed around 1.1560, below the long-term average which typically demonstrates seller dominance.
Bednarik further added: “Should the pair breach the previously noted 2026 low, it could expose the range around 1.1360, just above the 1.1300 threshold. If the pair recovers, initial resistance will align near 1.1470, which is a strong static resistance area leading to 1.1550.”
