US battle with Houthi rebels shows no signs of stopping

The Houthi rebels have continued to attack ships in the Red Sea despite U.S. attacks, putting the Biden administration in a bind as it seeks to quell an invasion by Yemeni insurgents and restart global trade.

Last week, the first of a series of attacks on Houthi assets in Yemen were aimed at reducing the Iranian-backed group's ability to continue its Red Sea offensive, but the Houthis emerged unscathed and determined to continue the invasion.

The United States continued its attacks on the Houthis this week, and the rebels are retaliating with more attacks.

All signs point to a protracted conflict. But analysts say prolonged fighting between the Houthis and the United States will further deepen global shipping disruptions and worsen Yemen's humanitarian crisis as Washington seeks to contain a broader regional war. He points out that this will only intensify the situation in the Middle East.

Like other Iranian-backed groups, the Houthis have linked their activities to Israel's war in Gaza and have vowed to continue fighting as long as Israeli soldiers continue fighting in the Palestinian enclave.

Houthi leader Abdulmalik al-Houthi said Thursday in a speech shared on the pro-Iranian Telegram channel that “Americans are starving the Palestinian people while being fed to their enemy Israel” “We want the seas to be safe for support and resources.”

“We warn of fatigue against the oppression of the Palestinian people. The longer the siege and famine last, the greater our liability to the state.”

The Pentagon's biggest concern is how to restart global trade through the Red Sea. Shipping prices are soaring as companies are forced to bypass the Red Sea shortcut and circumnavigate Africa.

But a retaliatory attack could further disrupt traffic in the corridor and scare away ships trying to avoid conflict, said Caroline Rose of the New Lines Strategic Policy Institute.

“Their long-term plan, of course, is to try to secure this waterway,” said Rose, director of the think tank's Blind Spot Program. “In the short term, ships are actually being encouraged not to use that waterway because of the increased instability and insecurity.”

Sridhar Tayur, a professor of business administration at Carnegie Mellon University, also said that while manufacturers have largely stemmed price increases so far, months of conflict have caused severe supply problems and the average consumer He said costs could rise.

“Companies are very cautious about passing on increased prices to consumers. But at some point they have to — they can't absorb it,” Tayul said. Told. “We don't see any price increases at this point, but if this starts to take longer, we should probably expect that.”

When other deterrence efforts failed, the United States resorted to aggression. The Houthis began attacking ships in late November, prompting the Pentagon to establish a multilateral task force to protect ships at sea.

But special forces, including warships, still patrolling the Red Sea have failed to deter Houthi attacks, and major companies continue to avoid the route.

Under pressure, the United States and Britain last week launched retaliatory strikes for the first time since the conflict began in November. As of Thursday, the U.S. military had carried out five strikes in Yemen targeting Houthi radars, missiles and launch capabilities.

But after each attack, the Houthis have responded with yet another, highlighting a troubling pattern and raising questions about whether U.S. deterrence is working. President Biden acknowledged Thursday that U.S. deterrence has struggled to thwart attacks.

“Are they stopping the Houthis? No,” Biden said. “Are they going to continue? Yes.”

The Pentagon says the United States is not at war with the Houthis but will continue to protect commercial shipping in the Red Sea. He said the effort is reducing Houthi activity, even if attacks have not stopped.

Sabrina Singh, a Pentagon deputy spokeswoman, said the United States was “very successful” in repeated strikes, destroying nearly all of the selected targets. That forced the Houthis to launch small-scale attacks, she said.

“We never said we would stop the Houthis immediately,” Singh said. “We have since been able to degrade, severely disrupt and destroy their capabilities. [last week]. But it's up to them to actually stop disrupting commercial transportation. ”

But other analysts say the Houthis have combat experience, having endured years of bombing by U.S.-backed forces in Saudi Arabia and Yemen.

“The Houthis are far more savvy, prepared and well-equipped than many Western commentators believe. After years of brutal conflict, they It has extensive experience in waging war,” Faleah al-Muslimi wrote. think tank researcher Chatham House.

“Their recklessness and willingness to escalate when faced with difficulties is also important and always underestimated.”

In addition to strikes, the United States is trying to attack the Houthis in other ways.

The Biden administration announced Wednesday that it has classified the Houthis as a Specially Designated Global Terrorist group in an attempt to make them pariahs on the world stage. It also opens the door for the United States to sever some financial ties.

The move comes after Biden lifted the Foreign Terrorist Organization (FTO) designation of the Houthis, which was enacted under the Trump administration in 2021.

Some Republicans this week criticized Biden for failing to reinstate the FTO, a stronger designation.

Chairman Mike Johnson (R-Louisiana) wrote, “The Houthis are attacking civilian commercial shipping, including U.S. ships, in the Red Sea, firing rockets at U.S. military personnel, and attempting to disrupt the international economic system.” . In the post of X, formerly Twitter. “If that's not the definition of a foreign terrorist organization, I don't know what is.”

Still, it is unclear whether any designation will deter the Houthis.

Trita Parsi, executive vice president of the Quincy Institute for Responsible States and Strategy, said that “financing the Houthis, especially if it has something to do with Iran, is already out of the channel,” considering the impact of U.S. sanctions. He said there is a possibility of receiving it. “I don’t expect it to be anything significant at all.”

Parsi said the US position to protect Israel's wars comes at a cost as Iranian-backed groups step up attacks across the Middle East and the Biden administration falls into global unpopularity for its support for Israel. He argued that now is the time to discuss a ceasefire in Gaza.

Parsi said of the ceasefire: “The United States is expending significant resources and incurring significant costs to deny action that is actually in our interests.”

The terrorist designation also deepens Yemen's humanitarian crisis, where millions of civilians have struggled to meet basic needs since war broke out between the Houthis and the Yemeni government in 2014. There is a possibility that

The Houthis now control about 75 percent of Yemen, with most civilians under their control.

The Biden administration has said it will create a humanitarian exception to the terrorist designation, but humanitarian groups have expressed concern that the designation could deter private companies and banks from providing services to Yemen, creating a ripple effect for humanitarian groups. ing.

“There's still a lot of uncertainty about how everyone will react,” said Anastasia Moran, associate director for U.S. advocacy at the International Rescue Committee. She said: “Humanitarian work does not exist in isolation…We exist in this ecosystem with civilian actors in Yemen.”

Moran also expressed concern that the conflict between the Houthis and the United States was derailing peace talks in Yemen between the rebels and the Yemeni government.

Parties to the conflict have been under a fragile ceasefire since 2022, which has alleviated widespread suffering, but prolonged fighting between the U.S. and the Houthis is hampering negotiations to achieve a more durable peace and end the humanitarian crisis. He said this could seriously jeopardize the situation.

“This was on a trajectory where we expected an economic recovery,” she said. “I think in recent weeks you've all been concerned that two years of very fragile progress could all be lost.”