“The most important characteristic of the world can be summed up in one word: chaos. This trend is likely to continue.”Chinese leader Xi JinpingIn early 2021.
This observation is RAND, an American think tank The Corporation describes the current world situation as neo-medieval, based on strong tendencies that parallel the Middle Ages.
- A Weak State: Governments struggle to maintain their legitimacy while struggling to maintain levels of prosperity, services, security and opportunity for their people.
- Social divisions: Polarization, discontent and cultural wars are undermining national unity.
- Unbalanced economy: Growth will be increasingly concentrated in a few sectors, exacerbating persistent inequality and stagnant social mobility.
- Omnipresent threats: Growing risks such as natural disasters, pandemics, violent non-state actors, and war create a sense of perpetual threat.
- The informalization of warfare: Armies are increasingly made up of professional forces and include private security companies, mercenaries and armed militias. As in wars, old ways of fighting are making a comeback.Trench warfareIn Ukraine.
In China, inequality is rising and economic growth is slowing. Leaders are turning increasingly to repression, and China’s domestic security budget is shrinking.Defense budget exceededFor over 10 years.
For these reasons, China and the United States do not seem in a position to enter into all-out war anytime soon. Direct conflict is too risky, given their weaknesses and the domestic and international challenges they face, and their rulers cannot assume that their peoples will rally together in a war effort that would require real, sustained sacrifices.
The result is likely to be a protracted, low-intensity conflict rather than an all-out war. This does not mean that violent escalation will not occur. For example,China’s blockade of TaiwanIt’s not outside the realm of realistic scenarios, but the battle between the U.S. and China will likely be fought in the gray areas of cyberspace and economic issues.
Peak China
Some believe China has already reached or passed its peak.Premature conclusionsAnd even if China stagnates, it will remain a huge force shaping the course of the world in the coming decades, especially if the United States becomes terminally ill as Xi Jinping and China’s elites believe.
Proponents of the Peak China theory base their conclusions on weakening.economic growth,crisisReal Estate Sector,Capital inflows overseasand,Defense System.
The above problems are serious,It certainly doesn’t meanThe situation is only going to get worse. First, economic power is not the same as geopolitical power. So even if China continues to struggle economically, that doesn’t necessarily mean thatRole on the world stageIt is in decline.
Either way, President Xi Jinping shows no signs of backing down. He said that in 2021 China will be more visible on the world stage than ever before and is in the process of rebirth.According to Chinese leaders“The East is rising and the West is declining.”
Moreover, supposed signs of weakness do not necessarily mean fragility. Xi Jinping has increasingly placed himself and the Chinese Communist Party at the center of politics, the economy, and society, neutralizing potential rivals. And the ease with which he has removed his top aides in the defense and foreign affairs sectors may be a sign of strength rather than vulnerability.
And the weakening economy appears to be partly a conscious choice: Continuing to rely too heavily on traditional growth drivers like real estate, infrastructure and processing trade will only make China more vulnerable, so Beijing has chosen to shift its focus to green energy, EVs and batteries, accepting that there will be some initial pain.
AsEvan S. Medeiros writes for Foreign Affairs magazine.“Xi Jinping embraced austerity and sought to revive a spirit of sacrifice, self-reliance and egalitarianism.”
China may be swallowing a bitter pill, but it must not forget that it is a superpower whose progress in many areas is not yet finished.
- China is the worldLargest exporter and creditor.
- The company is leading an industry that will be essential for decades to come.EVandbattery.
- it isLeading companies in the rare earth marketOther necessities.
- It has the world’s largest and most advanced military,Joint ExercisesWe are working with a growing number of countries and providing training to a growing number of states.
- it isIt has more embassies and consulates than the United States..
- CNN’s China bureau has twice as many overseas bureaus as CNN, and Chinese news agenciesXinhua has 180 offices around the world..
- China is anchoring itselfWe will establish a stronger position than ever before on the international diplomatic, economic and military stages,Belt and RoadGlobal Development, Global Security and Global Civilisation Initiative.
- The Belt and Road Initiative is firmly embedded within the UN framework and has around 150 member countries. For example, Huawei70 percentof all 4G technology in Africa.
- The Global Development Initiative covers development in the broadest sense (poverty, climate policy, health, food security) with over 50 projects and support from over 70 countries.
- According to Beijing, the Global Security Initiative aims to prevent Cold War thinking, bloc formation and unilateralism, and has the backing, at least in rhetoric, of more than 100 countries and international organizations.
- The Global Civilizations concept has been the least successful so far. It argues that different cultures and levels of prosperity require different political and economic models.
Head-on collision?
In the United States, many are uneasy about the neo-medieval atmosphere that China, despite all odds, remains extremely powerful. China is one of the few issues on which Democrats and Republicans can still regularly find common ground. But this has its limits.
Within the Republican Party, there is still a strong feeling that the Biden administration is taking a tougher stance on China.Too easy on Beijing.
Hardliners argue that long-term stability and calm must first be brought about by America taking a tougher stance against the Chinese Communist Party and increasing tensions, including by significantly increasing defense spending, restoring American primacy in Asia, and placing more U.S. troops within range of China.
However, this would also include stripping China of its permanent normal trade relations status and implementing more protectionist policies. They also believe that the entire American society should wake up to the fact that China is the enemy, which would, for example, prompt Americans to stop using TikTok altogether.
All of this means that tensions between China and the United States are likely to rise, not fall, and develop into a decades-long conflict — and not just if Trump wins the election and Republicans take control of Congress.
Biden recently said:“We do not let tyrants win. We stand up to tyrants. We do not just watch world events unfold, we shape them. That is what it means to be … an indispensable nation. That is what it means to be a global superpower.”
Such statements leave little room for China.
Andy Langenkamp:ECR Research&ICC Consultant.
