US Dollar Holding Post-FOMC Gains for Now, Gold Continues to Nudge Higher – DailyFX

US dollar and gold analysis, prices and charts

• The probability of a rate cut in March has been significantly lowered as Chairman Powell continues to review the data.
• Gold hit its sixth consecutive low despite lower interest rate expectations.

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US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell yesterday tempered market expectations for interest rate cuts, saying the central bank needed more confidence that inflation would reach its target, adding: “We hope to reach a confidence level by March.” “I think it’s unlikely that we will reach that goal,” he added. I don’t think that’s the basic case in a conference. ” Heading into the meeting, the market had priced in a 50/50 chance of a rate cut in March, but the probability now appears to be just 35%. Despite the Fed’s pushback, financial markets still expect the U.S. central bank to cut interest rates by nearly 150 basis points by the end of the year.

Friday’s U.S. jobs report (NFP), especially after yesterday’s U.S. ADP report was lower than expected (+107,000 vs. +145,000 expected), as the Fed reiterates that it still relies on data. takes on even greater importance than usual. The number of non-farm employees is expected to increase by 180,000 new jobs in January, compared to 216,000 in December, and the unemployment rate is expected to rise from 3.7% to 3.8%. It is being

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After hitting a multi-week low of $2,002/oz, gold performed subdued but solidly in mid-January. Precious metal prices hit a pre-FOMC high of $2,056/oz yesterday. He has since fallen, trading around $2,042 an ounce. Gold hit six consecutive new lows and surpassed all three simple moving averages for the first time in a month. The CCI indicator shows that gold is heading into overbought territory. Initial support is likely around $2,032/oz. Above $2,010/oz. $2,002/oz. A breakout from Wednesday’s high would send gold bulls targeting $2,088 an ounce. I set this as my first short-term goal.

gold daily price chart

Charts by TradingView

According to individual trader data, the long-to-short ratio of traders is 1.43:1, with 58.92% of traders being net long. The number of net-long traders is down 9.22% from yesterday and 15.32% from last week. Traders’ net short is 5.16% higher than yesterday and 7.10% higher than last week.

See how daily and weekly changes in IG Retail Trader data affect sentiment and price trends.

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