On its current trajectory, U.S. greenhouse gas emissions reductions will fall 18% short of the Paris Agreement goals, the research institute said. report Rhodium Group announced the news on Tuesday.
The 194-nation agreement, which the Trump administration withdrew from and which the Biden administration rejoined, calls for the U.S. to halve its emissions from 2005 levels by 2030. But based on current policies and regulations, the U.S. will miss its goal of reducing total emissions by 32 to 43 percent, with cuts set to rise to 56 percent over the next five years, according to the report.
The report’s authors attribute much of the progress in reducing emissions to inflationary controls, noting that U.S. greenhouse gas emissions will be 18% lower in 2023 than in 2005. Even the shortfall projected in the report is an improvement over the Rhodium Group’s forecast of a 24% to 35% reduction in 2022.
Despite the projected shortfall, the report notes that investment in renewable energy has surged in recent years, accounting for 5.1 percent of private investment nationwide in the first quarter of this fiscal year, and much of that investment is likely to continue regardless of the political outcome.
But the authors note that markets are likely to be “highly sensitive” to politics and policy over the next few years. There is also the potential for a lot of litigation against federal regulations as a result of the recent Supreme Court decision overturning the so-called Chevron doctrine, which gives federal agencies broad discretion in interpreting federal law.
“Given the great progress we’ve made this year in reducing emissions, [report] “This is a function of these regulations, and we will be watching closely to see which rules apply and which do not,” the authors wrote.
