Canada’s retail sales in February were -0.4% as expected, but former cars were stronger (there was a tough month in the automotive industry). Looking at preliminary March data in the future, our forecasts are against a solid 0.7% increase. This data helped to push CAD moderately high (low USDCAD), but there is still a pair between the support and resistance levels defined this week.
The USDCAD pair is currently trading in a consolidated range, with price action grasping among the key technical levels shaping short-term sentiment. The 100-hour moving average (currently close to 1.3845) serves as an immediate support zone. This level was held firmly in multiple tests on Thursday, with the break below that moving bias into the downside more clearly and opening doors for more momentum selling.
Conversely, swing area 1.39054 Represents an important ceiling. This level has at least eight recent tests (as support or resistance), with recent highs stalling rally at that level (see circles 6-8 in the red numbers). A successful break and closing beyond this ceiling could lead to an increased bullish bias and additional shopping. There is a swing area between 1.39458 and 1.39785, and there is a moving average of 100 bars on the 4-hour chart of 1.3972.
The 200-hour moving average sits between these two extremes, adding even more weight to the integrated narrative. Prices vibrate around this mid-level, suggesting indecisiveness and the need for clear breakouts to define direction.
For now, traders are monitoring breakouts from this tightening technology structure, with 100 and 200 hours of MAS serving as support, with a swing area of 1.39054 serving as resistance. The trader waits for the next thrust.
Later this year
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