The PGA Tour heads west on Interstate 10 from Houston’s Memorial Park to TPC San Antonio for this week’s Valero Texas Open.
The 2024 edition, won by Canadian Corey Connors last year, boasts an impressive field, marking the final PGA Tour event before the Masters.
Rory McIlroy will make his third start at TPC San Antonio, with fellow European Ryder Cup stars Ludwig Oberg, Matt Fitzpatrick and Tommy Fleetwood also in attendance.
Other notable players include Jordan Spieth, Max Homa, Collin Morikawa, and Hideki Matsuyama.
Valero Texas Open odds:
The current situation is as follows odds According to DraftKings, for a player to win:
- Rory McIlroy +800
- Ludwig Oberg +1200
- Max Homa +1800
- Jordan Spieth +1800
- Hideki Matsuyama +1800
- Collin Morikawa +2000
- Corey Connors +2200
- Matt Fitzpatrick +2500
- Tommy Fleetwood +2800
- Ahn Byung Hun +3000
- Billy Horschel +3000
- Alex Noren +3000
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Valero Texas Open predictions
Designed by Greg Norman, TPC San Antonio features wide fairways and minimal elevation changes. However, players must find the best angle to attack the undulating green with lots of run-off.
As you can see, TPC San Antonio prioritizes hitting the ball, and players with excellent short games tend to do well. Corey Connors fits that bill, so it’s no surprise that in the past four years he’s won his Texas Open twice.
Collin Morikawa continues to slide
Considering Collin Morikawa’s excellent iron play, you would think this course would suit his game well. But in 2024, the two-time major champion has struggled, ranking 69th on the PGA Tour in total strokes gained.
Morikawa hasn’t carded a round lower than 67th since The Sentry, and most recently tied for 45th at The Players Championship. He also missed the cut at Bay Hill with an abysmal score of 80 in the second round.
Morikawa’s big problem in 2024 will be putting, and given the slippery greens at TPC San Antonio, I imagine the California kid will struggle with flat stick again.
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Rory McIlroy fights but can’t win
To be honest, Rory McIlroy is more focused on Augusta National than this week’s Valero Texas Open. All she needs is a green jacket to complete her career Grand Slam, so she flew to Georgia on Monday for a scouting trip. He is scheduled to fly to San Antonio either Monday night or early Tuesday morning.
Despite this, it’s clear that favorite McIlroy has the ability to play well this week and win. But we think a top-five finish at +210 is the best bet for the Northern Irishman.
McIlroy has yet to finish in the top 10 on the PGA Tour in 2024, but there’s a sense that he’s finally put together a solid four rounds to build momentum heading into Augusta. So far this season, McIlroy appears to have had one bad hole or bad round that prevented him from competing.
Watch his latest performance at The Players Championship. He started with a 7-under 65 to stay in the lead, then shot a 1-over 73 the next day. McIlroy ended up tied for 19th place.
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Ludwig Oberg finishes below 10th place
The young Swedish phenom is off to a good start in 2024, his first full season as a PGA Tour member. Oberg has never missed a spot and has never finished outside the top 30 other than at Sentry, where he started the year.
He had two weeks off and recently finished eighth alone at The Players Championship.
Oberg’s game also has some small flaws. Everything he does is masterful, which explains why he ranks 13th in overall strokes gained.
Many experts talk about his great ability to drive the ball well off the tee, but what is often overlooked is how strong Oberg is as an iron player. He ranks second on the PGA Tour in average closeness to the hole and hits the green in regulation 70% of the time, ranking him 29th.
Given TPC San Antonio’s emphasis on iron play, we think Oberg will finish in the top 10 at +165, but we value him even more in the top five at +320. Masu.
valero texas open longshot picks
Aside from missing out on the Valspar Championship, Victor Perez has had a productive month of golf. He tied for 16th at the Cognizant Classic, finished one shot short of the playoffs in Puerto Rico, and recently tied for 17th in Houston.
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The Frenchman is currently listed at +10,000 for winning the Valero Texas Open, a tournament he has yet to play, but ranks 13th on the PGA Tour in strokes gained approaching the green. He also ranks third in finding greens in regulation, doing so 74% of the time.
That being said, Perez’s only weakness is his putting. He has struggled on the greens so far this season, losing nearly 8.5 strokes in just 17 rounds. But that’s why a long shot is a long shot. Perez will be there eventually if he can get the putters to cooperate. His flat stick showed signs of hope in Houston over the weekend, as he finished inside the top 25 in putts gained on both Saturday and Sunday.
Valero Texas Open Winner
The 2024 PGA Tour season has a common theme: first-time winners.
At last week’s Texas Children’s Houston Open, Stefan Jaeger became the fifth player to earn his first win on the PGA Tour this season. He joins Nick Dunlap (American Express), Matthew Pavon (Farmers Insurance Open), Jake Knapp (Mexico Open) and Austin Eckrot (Cognizant Classic).
Therefore, we hope that the first-time winner will win again this week and earn an invitation to the final remaining Masters.
That would be Christian Bezuidenhout, a South African who is an excellent ball striker and putter.
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He ranks 11th on tour in strokes gained approaching the green and 17th in strokes gained putting. But surprisingly, he was 150th in green percentage under regulation, with a putting surface clip of 64%. Still, he has managed to put himself in a position to succeed time and time again, which helps explain his recent success.
Bezuidenhout recently tied for ninth at the Valspar Championship and tied for 13th at TPC Sawgrass. He also took second place behind Dunlap in January.
Additionally, Bezuidenhout played decently in his first go-around at TPC San Antonio a year ago. He tied for 28th, but played the easiest hole on the course, the par-5 14th, at 3 over for the week. Even if he played that hole at even par, he would still be in the top 10 if he finished 28th.
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Jack Mirko is a golf staff writer for SB Nation’s Playing Through.Be sure to check it out @_PlayingThrough Cover more golf. You can follow him on Twitter @jack_milko In the same way.
