Valspar Championship 2024: Odds, prediction, value picks for PGA Tour event

This week, 156 PGA Tour professionals will compete in the Valspar Championship at Innisbrook’s Copperhead Course.

This tournament will be the PGA Tour’s fourth and final stop in Florida, where the “Snake Pit” takes center stage in the golf world.

Holes 16, 17, and 18 of the Copperhead Course make up the “Snake Pit” and rank among the three most difficult holes on the PGA Tour.

Valspar Championship Odds

The current situation is as follows odds According to DraftKings, for a player to win:

• Xander Schauffele +800
• Sam Barnes +1200
• Justin Thomas +1400
• Jordan Spieth +1400
• Tony Finau +2200
• Cameron Young +2200
• Brian Harman +2200
• Im Sung Jae +2500
• Nick Taylor +3500
• Lee Min Woo +3500
• Keegan Bradley +4000
• Eric Cole +4000
• Keith Mitchell +4000

Valspar Championship Predictions

Last year, American Taylor Moore birdied the difficult 16th hole in Sunday’s final round to take a one-stroke lead. He then made pars on the 17th and 18th holes to take his first PGA Tour win with a one-stroke lead over Adam Schenk.

Tommy Fleetwood and Jordan Spieth followed with a two-shot lead.

This year, five of the top 20 players in the Official World Golf Ranking (OWGR) will be teeing off at Innisbrook.

Xander Schauffele and Brian Herman are fresh off runner-up finishes at The Players and will head across the state to the Tampa Bay area for the Valspar Championship.

Schauffele last competed in this event in 2022, when he tied for 12th place. Herman, on the other hand, is getting more minutes at Innisbrook, but more on his former Georgia Bulldog below.

In addition to Keegan Bradley, Sam Barnes and Spieth, Justin Thomas, Lucas Glover and Minwoo Lee are also participating.

Photo by Mike Rowley/Getty Images

Justin Thomas and Jordan Spieth are back

Both players missed the cut at TPC Sawgrass last week, but both Justin Thomas and Jordan Spieth believe they will bounce back at the Valspar Championship. The two major champions will arrive in Innisbrook refreshed thanks to an early exit at Ponta Vedra Beach.

In his past three starts at Innisbrook, Thomas has finished 13th, third and tied for 10th. Shot makers typically do well on this golf course, and Thomas has all the shots he needs. This week I hope to be in the top 5 at +330.

As for Spieth, he also has good results on the Copperhead course.

He won the Valspar Championship in 2015 in a playoff with Patrick Reed and Sean O’Hare, perhaps foreshadowing his big breakthrough at Augusta National a few weeks later.

Spieth tied for third here a year ago, but could have had a better result if not for two bogeys on the final three holes. He hit it into the water on number 16, and this ultimately sealed his fate.

Nevertheless, we’re hoping Spieth records his third top-10 finish of the season at a price of +175.

Photo credit: Julio Aguilar/Getty Images

Brian Harman’s struggles

Brian Herman, who had his best performance of the season at the Players Championship, is headed for a course that has stumbled throughout his career.

Herman has missed the cut six of the nine times he has played in this tournament, including last season when he played the rounds of Nos. 70 and 75 on a par-71 layout. That being said, Herman tied for fifth at Innisbrook in 2022, finishing just three strokes out of a playoff won by Sam Burns.

But this week will be Herman’s third consecutive event. Although he seems to be improving as the major season approaches, we think Herman should be avoided this week. This course doesn’t suit him.

Valspar Championship Longshot Picks

This week could be the week for golf’s favorite players.

We want Joel Dahmen to mirror his success from The Players Championship to the Valspar Championship. He tied for 11th at TPC Sawgrass, shooting two 67s in the final three rounds and posting a 4-under 68 to tie for 11th.

TPC Sawgrass emphasizes iron play, so Dahmen ranked 15th in strokes gained approaching the green last week. Winning at Innisbrook requires strong iron play, and the Copperhead course is no different.

Photo by Douglas P. DeFelice/Getty Images

The former Washington Husky, who ranked sixth in stroke gain, approached the green last year when Dahmen tied for 61st at Valspar. He didn’t make the putt that would have saved his life, which explains why he finished 15 strokes behind Taylor Moore. He ranked 68th in strokes gained putting and lost nearly five strokes on the green.

However, Damen has never missed a spot in this tournament, and his best finish was a tie for 30th in 2019.

Picking him to win this week at +10000 is a bit ambitious, especially considering there are so many good players in this field. But we want Dahmen to be in the top 10 at +850. I’m sure golf fans around the world will be cheering him on all weekend.

valspar championship picks

Aside from Scottie Scheffler’s recent dominance, the theme of this PGA Tour season is first-time winners.

I believe the first-time winner will win again this week at Innisbrook.

So we’re going to win with longshot Eric Cole at +4000.

Despite missing twice in the past three weeks, Cole was named the PGA Tour’s Rookie of the Year last season. He seems to be playing every week no matter where the tournament is.

Cole has competed in every event so far this season, with his best finish being a tie for 10th at the Genesis Invitational. He has finished 21st or better four of his other times, most recently at the Arnold Palmer Invitational.

Additionally, like Jordan Spieth and Justin Thomas, Cole will arrive in the Tampa Bay area well-rested and ready to go. He plans to win and believes he will finally make his breakthrough in the Valspar Championship.

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Jack Mirko is a golf staff writer for SB Nation’s Playing Through.Be sure to check it out @_PlayingThrough Cover more golf. You can follow him on Twitter @jack_milko In the same way.