Valspar Championship odds, picks: Tommy Fleetwood, Xander Schauffele favored to win

The final event of the PGA Tour Florida Swing will take you to Innisbrook Copperhead Course in Palm Harbor just outside Tampa. This is also amazing. This week we have eight of the top 25 players in the official World Golf Rankings (OWGR).

This includes Xander Schauffele, the third-largest in the world, who will start his third straight after missing two months due to a rib injury. He has not looked like his major champion self for the past two weeks, but Schaufele is one of his favorites as he is always a threat to win. Perhaps he knocked out some of the rust this week and does just that.

Another favorite of this week's Valspar Championship is Tommy Fleetwood, currently the ninth-ranked player in the world. The British had an incredible run of consistency that dates back to his second place finish at the Olympics last July. He posted 14 straight top 25 finishes worldwide, but there is no victory to show that. Surprisingly, “Tommy-Lad” has not yet won the PGA Tour. Maybe that will change this week.

And then there's Justin Thomas, who has shown his sparkle so far in 2025. He tied the course record with TPC Sawgrass last week, and has already had three top 10 this season, ranking 10th in the tour on the stroke. His iron play was perfect, but his putter sometimes disappointed him. If he can roll the ball this week, Thomas could break the drought that hasn't won for nearly three years. His final victory took place at the 2022 PGA Championship.

As for the course itself, the tournament yards are listed at 7,352 yards. This is exactly the same length as last week's TPC Sawgrass. However, this course is a PAR-71, but Sawgrass plays on the PAR-72. So Innisbrook's Copperhead course is the longest par 71 the PGA Tour has played so far this season. Another notable development related to this week's layout is that hole 9 has been extended and the rough remains at 3.75 inches. Tournament officials increased the rough height from 3 inches to 3.75 two years ago. Since they did so, their winning scores have been 12 and 10 under, respectively.

There are scores everywhere this week, especially given Thursday's forecast. The Oddsmaker changed the line after the PGA Tour released its tee sheets on Tuesday afternoon. Thursday afternoon forecasts look ominous, with isolated showers and gusts of wind. However, for the rest of the week, 10-15 mph breezes will look great, even if it's colder than usual.

Valspar Championship odds:

This is the latest The chances of the player winning Valspar Championship, provided by: Fan Duell:

Tommy Fleetwood +1100

Xander Schauffele +1200

Sepp Straka +1600

Justin Thomas +2000

Tom Kim +2200

Sam Burns +2200

Shane Laurie +2800

Michael Kim +3000

Adam Scott +3500

Corey Conners +3500

Keith Mitchell +4000

Byeong Hun an +4000

It's going to be Zalatoris +4500

Thomas Detrey +4500

Stephan Jaeger +5000

rasmushøjgaard+5000

Jacob Bridgeman +5500

Kurt Kitayama +5500

Jordan Spieth +6000

Joe Highsmith +6000

Harry Hall +6000

Christian Bezuidenhout +6500

Nicolai Højgaard+7000

Alex Smalley +7000

Kevin Yu +7500

Billy Horchel +8000

Viktor Hovland +8000

JT Poston +8000

Taylor Moore +8000

Luke Clanton +8000

Jake Nap +9000

Kevin Roy +9000

Sahith theegala +9000

Ben Griffin+9000

Jhonattan Vegas +9000

Matt Kuchar +9000

Thorbjorn Olesen +9000

Rico Hoey +9000

Matt Wallace +9000

Gary Woodland +10,000

Ryan Fox +10000

Play Through Picks:

Jack Mirco – Staff Writer, Golf

This is one of the most challenging tracks on the PGA Tour, requiring accuracy from the tee to the green and avoiding the large number of scorecards.

Corey Conners Not only that, but everyone does it.

Over the past two weeks, the Connors have finished third in their solos, tied them to sixth on the difficult Florida courses of Bayhill and TPC Sawgrass. He posted eight rounds on that stretch in four rounds on par. Given Bay Hill averaged 72.577 (+0.577 or above), it was incredibly impressive statistics and TPC Sawgrass wreaked havoc over the weekend. The player-made cut saw a brutal situation as the average score of the last 36 holes was 73.45. However, the Connors made three bogeys in the third and fourth rounds. The other came like a 3 putt.

He shot a 6-under 66 early on Saturday, causing the wind to blow, and posted a 1-under 71 on Sunday.

The Canadian got almost six strokes from the tee last week at TPC Sawgrass. He also ranks 19th and 32nd on the tour in driving rates for accuracy rates held with the Greens in regulation percentages this season. It is also worth noting that Connors ranked third in the Strokes throughout 2024. He plays the ball and hits a lot of greenery.

But knocking him is his short game, as evident from his mistakes over the weekend with the player. Putting is not his strength. There is no play around his greenery either. He slid many opportunities on both Bayhill and TPC Sawgrass. But I feel this week that Connors will be trying to drop the ball into the hole.

His record at the Valspar Championship is also solid. In his only two starts at Copperhead, the Conners finished 16th in 2018 and finished the T-21 in 2021.

Fan Duel Odds: Connors wins at +3500

Photo by David Cannon/Getty Images

RJ OCHOA – Senior Producer, Boy's Blog

One of the hottest golfers in the world right now Michael Kim. He may not have been making a fuss at Ponte Vedra, but he had knocked on the door a week ago at the Arnold Palmer Invitational.

Before missing a cut on the player, he finished inside the top 13 with five straight starts, three of which were top 6 finishes.

Don't forget that Kim made multiple eagles in the round for the first time in her Bay Hill career. The point is that he's playing at an insane level, even if he was off-one for him last week.

I really love Michael Kim's big win this week, as the odds work in my favor.

Fan Duel Odds: Kim to win at +3000

Photo by Brian Spurlock/Getty

Mark Schofield – Staff Writer, NFL, F1

Copperhead is a track where the second shot is more important than the first shot.

That's why I support it Cep Straca this week.

Straka is one of the best players in the strokes he has obtained from his approach this year. 6th in PGA Tour statistics Mark of 0.933. He is fifth in the regulated green (73.69%), while Straca ranks eighth on the tour with approach shots within 100 yards. He is also the third closest to the hole.

This is a difficult course, but how well he plays with the irons right now might be perfect for him.

Fanduel Odds: Straka won with +1600

Photo by David Cannon/Getty Images

Jedmesh – Staff Writer, MMA Fighting

First of all, thank you for letting me join this little shindig. My expertise lies in combat sports, but I am an avid golf fan (and a super mid player) and enjoying flyers on tournament champion picks. So, keep that in mind and let me know why I'm supporting you. Justin Thomas this weekend.

Thomas had his best weekend at the player, finishing tied up to 33rd place, but there's a reason he's got a low odds again this week. In Thomas' electric round, he tied a course record of 62 with TPC Sawgrass. If you've never seen it, Check out the highlights Because it's a marvelous thing.

Thomas was in full control and definitely left some shots there. For courses that require accuracy, Thomas is heading to where he wants the ball (don't talk about his 78 on Thursday. On top of that, Thomas loves the Copperhead course and has two top-10 finishes on his past three trips here.

Fan Duel Odds: Thomas wins with +2000

Photo by Richard Heathcote/Getty Images