Ohio Sen. J.D. Vance (R) faces the biggest test of his political career to date in next week's vice presidential debate with Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz (D).
The first-term senator, seen as a future standard-bearer for the MAGA movement, heads to the debate stage amid low popularity ratings and intense scrutiny for his controversial statements and positions.
The stakes are high for both rival vice presidential candidates, who must make the case for their campaigns while promoting themselves to a national debate audience. But Tammy Vigil, a media science professor at Boston University who specializes in political campaigns, said the showdown could be a critical moment, especially for Vance as he stands as Trump's “apparent heir.” He said that there is.
“Vance has been in the news a lot, not necessarily positive things,” Vigil said. “He has an opportunity here to try to change the narrative or enhance the narrative.”
Mr. Vance, a Marine Corps veteran and former venture capitalist, burst onto the political stage with the success of “Hillbilly Elegy,'' a memoir about his upbringing in poverty and addiction in Appalachia. He was once a vocal critic of the former president, but when he filed to run for Senate in the midterm elections, he won Trump's support and defeated U.S. Rep. Tim Ryan (D-Ohio). .
Since then, Vance has become one of the most prominent faces of the America First movement in Congress. He said Trump was “wrong,” and the former president has dismissed past criticism and touted the Ohio senator's loyalty.
President Trump only has one term left in office and has said he would not run again if he loses this year, making Vance the front-runner to potentially run in 2028.
Still, when President Trump nominated Vance as his running mate, some within his own party raised concerns and questions about Vance's foreign policy positions and lack of political experience. .
With just over a month left until Election Day, the polls appear to be problematic for the vice presidential candidate.
Mr. Vance and Mr. Trump are both trailing in net favorability, or favorability minus unfavorable ratings, according to a tally compiled by The Hill/Decision Desk headquarters.
Walz has a net likeability score of +4, or 44 percent.
Walz has a net favorability score of +4, with 44% rating him highly. Harris' approval rating was 49 percent, giving her a net score of +1.
The former president's favorability rating was -10.5 online, with 54% saying they thought he was unfavorable. Vance's net score is -11, with 49 percent viewing him unfavorably.
“Vance is one of the most unpopular vice presidential candidates around, at least in the polls,” said Leonard Steinhorn, a professor of public communications at American University.
Whether the first-term senator can improve on those numbers in Tuesday's debate will depend on A) his demeanor and B) how well he makes his case and what he's done thus far. It's going to depend on how well we do some of the edges,''' Steinhorn said.
Vance has drawn backlash for a number of his statements and positions, from past criticism of Trump to comments slamming childless Democrats. He has recently come under fire for amplifying false claims about Haitian immigrants, and has criticized pop superstar Taylor Swift for past comments that the country is run by “childless cat women.” He received a jab from, but defended it as a sarcastic comment.
Across the aisle, Waltz takes the stage to face hurdles of his own. The Minnesota governor was relatively unknown outside of his home state when he made headlines this summer for his vulgar criticism of the “weird” Trump-Vance ticket, but he still had to introduce himself to the national stage. It won't happen. Both she and Harris have faced scrutiny over their progressive backgrounds as their campaigns target centrists, and criticism from the right for how they have portrayed parts of their backgrounds, such as their military careers. exposed to
But Democratic strategist Stephen Mabilio said Vance is at a “clear disadvantage” over his Democratic rivals and “needs to turn that around.”
“I think [for] Waltz doesn't have that much pressure. He just needs to define himself and not let Vance define him, so there's a balance there. ”
Meanwhile, Republican strategist Mark Weaver argued that the debate could bring fresh scrutiny to Walz and highlight Vance's media-friendly style.
At the same time, Weaver said Vance would be wise to broach issues like Walz's family's infertility treatments because they can be “too personal to bring up.”
Aaron Cole, the University of Michigan's debate director, said that in an early September debate in which the vice president was the ostensible winner, Mr. Vance's main job was against Mr. Walz, and Mr. Trump's work against Ms. Harris. He said that the goal is to get a better grade than the one given.
“In addition to some of Vance's controversial comments on the trail and in interviews… Vance may have to remove some of Trump's comments from the debate,” Cull said, adding that the Ohio Senate He added that it could mean “a little more pressure” on MPs.
But Cull also noted that Vance regularly appears on the Sunday show and is “pretty good at interviews,” suggesting that the two were auditioning for the second in command job. He pointed out that this could be a sign that he would be affected.
Republican strategist Ron Bonjean said Mr. Vance is likely to be “quite combative” and that Mr. Walz, although responsive to any attacks, is likely to be seen as “more folksy.”
“The chemistry between these two politicians on stage is unlike anything I've ever seen before, and you never know how it will work between them.” Bonjean said.
Questions abound every cycle about how important a vice presidential candidate is to a bid for the White House. Mr. Trump and Ms. Harris are both prominent figures in the party this year, raising suspicions that either Mr. Vance or Mr. Walz can change things. The vice-presidential debate is also usually seen as a prelude to a presidential showdown, and experts are skeptical that this year will go against the tide of history and cause a major ripple.
But this is an unprecedented election year, with polls showing Trump and Harris tied in key battleground states. The latest national averages released by DDHQ and The Hill give Harris a four-point lead nationally.
Experts say the unique circumstances of the tight polls and Harris' fast-paced bid mean that even the slightest influence could tilt the situation, making the stakes in the vice presidential showdown higher than usual. It states that there is. Since it is unlikely that a second presidential debate will be held, the debate between Vance and Walz could serve as the final arguments for both sides.
“There's a lot that's unique about this particular campaign and the whole season and all the characters involved. So I think there's actually an interest in wanting to know a little bit more about the vice presidential candidates because they're here. “It hasn't been as prominent for years,” Vigil said.
And if Mr. Vance is taking a long-term view as he aims to inherit Mr. Trump's ground, this discussion could be key to creating a “bigger picture for himself.” , said Vigil.
The debate is scheduled for 9pm ET on Tuesday night on CBS News and will be moderated by the station's Norah O'Donnell and Margaret Brennan in New York City.
