The chances of a fair election being held in Venezuela were always low, but many hoped it would bring a positive outcome to the dire situation created by the dictatorial regime of President Nicolas Maduro.
The opposition, led by María Corina Machado and Edmundo González, knew how unlikely this was to happen, so they implemented a careful strategy to prove electoral fraud by collecting more than 70% of the vote tabulations, known as “actas,” used in polling stations across the country. These tabulations, along with evidence collected by independent observers and non-governmental organizations, The Winner is He claimed that it was in fact Gonzalez, and that the results announced by the Maduro government were fabricated.
Despite massive opposition protests, Maduro has not stepped down. Instead, his regime has significantly increased violence and repression, cracking down on protesters, detaining and kidnapping members of the opposition, and using weapons to spread fear. Armed paramilitary groups known as colectivos He launched a witch hunt against those he considered enemies of the regime. Gonzalez, the legitimate president-elect, Deportation and fled to Spain.
The outcome of the election will have significant implications for the security, economy and diplomacy of the Western Hemisphere, particularly Venezuela's neighbor Colombia.
First, illegal detentions, enforced disappearances, and deteriorating security in Venezuela will almost certainly trigger new waves of migration. There are already nearly 8 million Venezuelan migrants worldwide, of which 6.5 million are in Latin America, mostly in Colombia (2.8 million), Peru (1.5 million), and Brazil (more than 500,000). Increased migration could exacerbate the Darien Gap humanitarian emergency, the human smuggling crisis, and drug trafficking networks, all of which are destabilizing Panama.
The migration could also increase tensions between the United States and Mexico and Central American countries, as the United States will increase pressure to stop migrants from reaching the border. For the United States, the new exodus of Venezuelans comes at the height of an election season, taking the issue beyond the political realm and raising legitimate security concerns related to Venezuela's migration problem. Trend of Aragua gangetc.
Second, the continuation of the Maduro regime’s corruption poses a grave risk to security and stability in the region. Over the past two decades, Colombian armed groups have: Liberation National Park (ELN)some factions of the FARC Curran del Golfo The ELN is known to operate inside Venezuela. These groups use Venezuela as a sanctuary and evidence suggests they are harbored by the Chavez-Maduro regime. In fact, the ELN operates in western Venezuela as a paramilitary organization entirely loyal to the regime.
Maduro came to power and Colombian President Gustavo Petro “Total Peace” PolicyColombian armed groups and Venezuelan criminal organizations will continue to expand their influence throughout the region, and cocaine trafficking organizations will continue to use Venezuela as a base of operations to ship drugs to Colombian ports on the Pacific and Atlantic oceans, or through Ecuador, which is becoming an increasingly important hub for the export of illegal drugs.
Similarly, illegal mining will increase, particularly of gold, cobalt and coltan. Venezuela's illegal gold mines are mainly located in the south, with exports passing through Colombia, Guyana and Brazil to customers in North America and Europe. Through these illegal economies, Venezuelan armed groups will increase their capacity for violence and territorial control.
Venezuelan Territorial dispute with GuyanaMaduro may use a similar strategy to his global partners: Russia's invasion of Ukraine, Iran's proxy war against Israel, and China's threat to Taiwan are attractive models for authoritarian regimes: use nationalism to unite their people and pursue neighboring countries' oil resources, disrupting regional stability and global energy markets.
Third, from a broader geopolitical perspective, the chessboard is tilted in favor of the “dictators.” As expected, repressive regimes such as Cuba, Iran, Nicaragua and Russia supported the Venezuelan election results. Electoral fraud increases the risk of democratic backsliding across South America.
Venezuela's election fraud is the second fraudulent election in the region in less than five years, and President Maduro Daniel Ortega of NicaraguaWith continental democracies becoming increasingly unstable, the tainted victory of the dictatorship poses a real threat to democracy in the region. Similarly, as it has done since the Chavez era, the regime will continue to try to influence elections in other countries to promote “Bolivarian Socialism.”
The results could further divide the region and create regional blocs that limit social and economic cooperation. While Bolivia, Nicaragua and Honduras accepted the falsified results, Argentina, Chile, Costa Rica, Peru, Panama, the Dominican Republic and Uruguay denounced the fraud and some have even severed diplomatic ties with the Maduro regime. The governments of Mexico, Brazil and Colombia, which all have ideological ties to the regime and are committed to keeping it in power, have taken a biased “neutral” stance.
In Colombia's case, President Petro is ideologically aligned with President Maduro and has sought to spearhead a policy of rebuilding diplomatic relations with Venezuela, but this strategy has not been successful. Despite Colombia's abundant reserves, President Petro's decision to halt new contracts for hydrocarbon exploration and extraction means that Colombia is at risk of running out of natural gas by 2025. The government has proposed importing natural gas from Venezuela, creating an energy dependency and effectively limiting Colombia's foreign policy.
Finally, Venezuela has played a key role in negotiations between Colombia and the ELN guerrilla group, seeking a peace agreement aimed at transforming Colombia into an independent state. “Socialism del Siglo XXI” Away from traditional democratic values and alliance with the United States
The failure of the brave but defenseless Venezuelan people and their quest for democratic results would have grave consequences for peace, stability and democracy on the continent. A victory for Maduro would be a victory for organized crime, malevolent power and dictatorship, and a defeat for human rights, freedom and democratic values. Allowing Maduro to commit electoral fraud would deprive Venezuela of its legitimate President, Edmundo González.
Moreover, in today's era of global power competition, allowing Maduro to win would harm the region in unforeseen ways. The time to act to guarantee freedom and democracy is now, whatever the cost. Rewarding Maduro's dictatorship will only encourage other countries to play the same game.
Juan Carlos Pinzon is a former Minister of Defense of Colombia and twice served as Colombia's Ambassador to the United States. He is a visiting professor at SPIA Princeton University. Gerardo Caneva is his Chief of Staff and an expert in political risk analysis.
