The progress of Russian forces in eastern Ukraine may seem minimal at first—just about 1.2 square kilometers daily near the city of Kupiansk. In total, according to a war research institute, they’ve secured 454 square kilometers since January 2024, when Moscow initiated its push to encircle this strategic location near the Russian border.
Conversely, in the southern regions, President Vladimir Putin’s invasion’s gains have been limited to about 17 kilometers around Lyman—the first significant movement since January 2025. But, honestly, the real complexities lay beneath these figures.
Focusing on salient objectives like Kupiansk and Lyman, six additional Russian salients are gradually coalescing into a more interconnected strategy, expanding from the Donbas area in eastern Ukraine.
The pace of this advancement remains slow. As it stands, Putin’s gains are measured more in footfalls than in heavy machinery. However, there’s a renewed strategy at play now. If you step back, looking at how these salients connect along the north-south axis of eastern Ukraine reveals their interdependent nature.
This shift indicates a change in Russia’s tactics. Instead of direct assaults on what’s known as the “fortress belt” in Donetsk Oblast, Moscow has opted for what the Institute describes as “a multi-year strategy to encircle the southern half of this belt.”
Putin’s battlefield approach seems quite open. He appears unwilling to engage in a ceasefire, believing it could outlast the will of Washington and Brussels to “conquer all of Ukraine.” The human cost—over a million casualties—seems to be seen merely as part of the operation.
While much attention centers on Russian missile and drone strikes against Ukrainian cities, the ground conflict rages on, often unnoticed by mainstream outlets. It’s somewhat like the concept of “boiling the frog”: the slow, gradual approach doesn’t draw immediate alarm but poses significant danger.
If unchecked, this gradual territorial gain could eventually snowball. Viewed through this limited lens, these are akin to the land-based equivalent of a “red tide,” quietly spreading destruction across eastern Ukraine.
Currently, eastern Ukraine is among the most mined regions globally—a situation that has developed since 2023. In fact, Kyiv now finds itself in a position alongside Finland, Poland, and the Baltic states as its government plans to withdraw from the Ottawa Convention, a 1997 agreement that disallows certain types of landmines.
This threat of Putin’s expansion is not limited to Ukraine; it risks spreading into Europe generally. Russia’s use of paramilitary forces across areas like the Sahel in sub-Saharan Africa underscores this risk.
Such actions consistently lead to diminished democracy, looting of national resources, and the devastation of cities—Bakhmut and Avdiivka being just a couple of the countless places left in ruins.
In light of this, the recent decision by the team under Trump to resume defensive arms sales to Ukraine seems particularly timely. Of course, media focus at the moment largely shines on aerial assaults from both Russia and Ukraine.
However, the underlying conflict sees serious military objectives, highlighted by incidents like the June “Operation Spider Web,” where Ukrainian drones were able to take out numerous Russian bombers.
Interestingly, even First Lady Melania Trump has been mentioned in discussions regarding the war. Trump himself noted that his wife remarked on how each conversation with Putin tends to end with a bomb falling on another Ukrainian city.
Winning a war typically requires boots on the ground to hold territory. Air strikes only lay the groundwork. The outcome in Ukraine will largely hinge on the 600-mile frontline. While defensive arms are crucial, they alone won’t secure victory.
Unless Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and his commanders can bolster their artillery and offensive capabilities to counter the Russian advance, the ongoing conflict will continue to threaten civilians in their homes.
And it’s increasingly clear that simply fending off Russia’s encroachment is not sufficiently strategic; the real underlying dynamics involve Ukraine’s rich deposits of rare earth minerals vital for future trade. It’s thought that about 50% of Ukraine’s estimated $11.5 trillion in such resources lie in the already occupied eastern territories.
Ukraine seems to recognize that its path post-war hinges on integrating with Trump’s team and leveraging its mineral wealth effectively.
Zelensky’s recent appointment of Yulia Svilidenko as the new Prime Minister signals an awareness of this reality. Svilidenko has been pivotal in solidifying the trade agreement with Trump regarding rare earth minerals.
One of her early actions included addressing the situation regarding a lithium mine in Donetsk that was seized back in June. Though small at just 100 acres, this mine was part of a crucial agreement with the Trump administration.
Additionally, the recall of Oksana Markarova, Ukraine’s ambassador to the U.S., reflects a pivotal shift. Markarova had faced significant criticism, particularly from Republican figures, which may indicate a strategy to recalibrate diplomatic efforts.
As it stands, Putin seems poised to claim dominance in the Donbas region. To disrupt this momentum, the Trump administration will need to effectively address the advancing tide of Putin’s influence in Ukraine.
