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Wall Street analysts and retail investors reach bullish consensus on gold prices – Kitco NEWS

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(Kitco News) – Gold prices had their strongest performance this week since early spring, with short covering and strong safe-haven bidding driving the precious metal higher both at the beginning of the week and over the weekend.

According to the latest Kitco News Weekly Gold Survey, market analysts and retail investors have roughly the same bullish consensus on the yellow metal’s outlook for the week ending October 20th.

John Weyer, director of commercial hedging at Walsh Trading, said the huge price spike at 8:30 a.m. EDT today came at a time when the market was all on board and all eyes were on gold. He said that it is something that can be done. “I’m curious to see if all the players came out and made long shots today,” he said. “There are various events scheduled in Gaza, Israel before the weekend, so I think it will be a safe place to avoid risks.”

Weyer added that if there is no further escalation over the weekend and the situation stabilizes, “we may return some of this on Monday.” “It’s going to be around a little bit, but it’s going to go up even more next week,” he said.

“We’re bullish on gold next week,” said Colin Sieczynski, chief market strategist at SIA Wealth Management. “U.S. Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar appear to be taking a lull for now, but the focus may continue to shift to corporate earnings. Meanwhile, precious metals continue to gain renewed interest as a haven for capital as the drums of war continue to beat. Maybe.”

James Stanley, senior market strategist at Forex.com, expects precious metals to further strengthen next week. “Gold has seen significant gains this week despite the return of strong US dollars online,” he said. “The reaction to the oversold background I was talking about a few weeks ago has been intense, and I see no evidence at this point that it is over.”

This week, 14 Wall Street analysts participated in the Kitco News Gold Survey. 10 experts (72%) expect gold prices to rise next week, while 2 analysts (14%) expect prices to fall, and the remaining 2 are neutral on gold prices next week. did.

Meanwhile, 595 votes were cast online. Of these, 72%, or 431 retail investors, expected gold to rise next week. Furthermore, 106 respondents, or 18%, expected prices to fall further, while less than 1%, or only 58 respondents, were neutral about the short-term outlook for precious metals. did.





According to the latest survey, retail investors expect the price of gold to trade around $1,902 an ounce next week, which is $60 above last week’s forecast but $26 below the current spot price. The dollar is said to be low.

Next week will be another relatively quiet week in terms of data. The most important report will be September U.S. retail sales on Tuesday, with economists warning that weak consumption will make it harder for the central bank to raise interest rates next month. Other notable events include the Empire State Fed and Philadelphia Fed investigations and Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s speech on Thursday.

Everett Millman, chief market analyst at Gainesville Coins, said a number of factors contributed to gold’s outstanding performance this week.

“I think some of it is a spillover from earlier this week, with the CPI being a little higher than expected and the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey coming in much lower than expected,” he said. “I think this all fits into the theme that the economy is in a slightly more volatile situation than I think the market was pricing in. Given the extent of gold’s decline since the start of this week, a lot of that is hidden. I think it’s just a trader’s positioning.”

He also pointed out that the latest Commitment of Traders report on gold showed that much of the managed money shorting had dried up, resulting in closing out short positions. “And the obvious geopolitical tensions, not just Israel and Palestine, but there’s still Ukraine in the background, everything going on,” he said. “There are even coups happening in West Africa right now that are going unnoticed.”

All of this is “brewing in the background,” Millman said, which also helps explain ongoing central bank gold purchases.

“I think it’s a monetary policy strategy, but it’s also a safe haven in times of war,” he said. “And there is no doubt that gold tends to shine brightest, even if only temporarily, when there is great geopolitical tension and a great possibility of war.”

Next week, Millman will focus on gold’s trading range through the end of last month. “At the end of September, gold was above $1,900, but it actually failed to break through the $1,950 resistance. I think this trading band is what I’m really targeting,” he said. . “We expect gold to consolidate these gains and trade between 1900 and perhaps slightly above 1950.”

Bannockburn Global Forex managing director Mark Chandler said this was the best week for the yellow metal since the escalation of interbank tensions in March, noting the timing of this week’s move was interesting. .

“The biggest part of the rally didn’t happen on Monday, as markets reacted to expectations for Hamas’ attack on Israel and its likely response, but it continued through the weekend, driven by a decline in the dollar and U.S. interest rates,” Chandler said. I was holding back,” he said. . “10-year bond yields are over 20 basis points lower this week despite CPI, PPI being better than expected and a flood of supply.Gold held above $1800 earlier this month, “We like that the gap has widened,” remains a bullish sign.”

He added that the next target is around $1,929-$30, and then $1,950. “We think a series of weak US economic data in the coming days could push interest rates and the dollar lower, leading to a rally in gold,” Chandler said.

Moore Analytics founder Michael Moore said Friday that he warned investors about additional short covering. “A decent trade above 1929.7-31.3 would warn of continued strength. A decent trade above 1944.1 (0.5 tick per hour starting at 7am) “will warn of strength in the coming days/weeks ($127 minimum).” “If we can get through here properly and come back down properly, there will be some pressure on us.”

Darrin Newsome, senior market analyst at Barchart.com, said he will be “nervously bullish on gold” next week after warning last week that the secular downtrend was continuing.

Adrian Day, president of Adrian Day Asset Management, expects gold prices to remain flat next week after a strong rally this week.

“Geopolitically, gold rallies tend to be short-lived,” Day said. “Next week’s gold price will largely depend on developments in the Middle East. Tensions will likely remain high and so will gold. In the long term, financial factors are more important for the gold price. “Suggests weakness in the situation in the Middle East.” In the near term (tighter monetary policy, less bank lending), but with the economy slowing, inflation remaining stubborn, and the Fed unable to tighten further, the outlook is very bullish by the start of the year. It will be. ”

Mark Leibovit, publisher of VR Metals/Resource Letter, remains bullish. “The cycle is over until the end of the year,” he said.

Jim Wyckoff, senior analyst at Kitco, is also bullish on precious metals. “The demand for safe areas is increasing,” he said.

Gold prices are currently up more than 3% for the session and 5.25% for the week, with spot gold at $1,928.03 per ounce at the time of writing after hitting a high of $1,930.80 just after 2pm ET. It is traded at.







Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect the views of the author. Kitoko Metals Co., Ltd. The author has made every effort to ensure the accuracy of the information provided. However, neither Kitco Metals Inc. nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation for the exchange of products, securities or other financial instruments. Kitco Metals Inc. and the author of this article do not accept liability for losses and/or damages arising from the use of this publication.

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