“The unexpected happens and no one is prepared for it.”
Leo Rosten
Before the All-Star break, it was impossible not to take note of Cincinnati’s Rese Hines, who was named the National League Player of the Week in his first week on “The Show” and then went on to become the most highly added player in ESPN league history.
In his first seven major league games, Hines went 11-for-26 (.423) with five home runs, 11 RBIs, seven runs scored and two stolen bases for a 1.657 OPS.
Nine of his 11 hits, all coming in his first six games, were extra base hits.
This is the most in major league history.
Only one of his home runs was under 400 feet, and the only one under 400 feet was a grand slam at 397 feet.
His home runs averaged 438 feet, with three of them traveling over 449 feet.
Even Nostradamus could not have predicted that Hines’ career would take off in the way it did.
He showed off his power and speed in Triple-A before being promoted, hitting 13 home runs, 41 RBIs, 38 runs scored and stealing 12 bases, but he was only hitting .216 with a 38.4 percent strikeout rate and a .698 OPS.
Considering he hit .244 with a 34.9% strikeout rate and a .790 OPS over five minor league seasons (322 games), it seems unrealistic to expect him to do anything close to what he did in his first 28 major league at-bats.
It’s also important to remember that Hines was fortunate to face the two worst pitching staffs in the major leagues in the first seven games of his career.
He started off facing the Rockies, who as of Friday had the league’s worst ERA (5.61) and an ERA of .289, allowing 121 home runs before facing the Marlins, whose pitching staff had the second-worst ERA in the league in the first half of the season (4.60 ERA).
We’ll see how Hines does against the Nationals, Braves and Rays (their next three opponents), as they will likely attack differently.
It’s easy for fantasy managers to salivate over Hines’ eye-popping numbers, such as his hard-hit rate of 52.6 percent, his exit velocity of 96.2 mph and his barrel rate of 31.6 percent — all of which are likely best in the major leagues.
But those numbers don’t erase his 25 percent strikeout rate, 3.6 percent walk rate, or his insanely high and unsustainable .429 BABIP.
It does not hide the fact He played in just seven games.!
And what happens when TJ Friedl returns from his hamstring injury?
Although there are questions that need to be answered, the evidence supports that this is an exciting and surprising trend.
If there is anyone in your league who thinks this is more than just a hot streak, sell at a high price.
If not, they’ll just have to ride out this streak, assuming the All-Star break doesn’t kill the momentum for the 23-year-old.
Do you bet on baseball?
Manager Lotter Lage would likely acquire an outfielder like the Rockies’ Brenton Doyle (44.6% roster), who is batting .422 with 10 runs scored and a 1.576 OPS with eight homers and 15 RBIs in his first 13 games this month.
He has played in 24 games since June 18th, batting .311 with 10 home runs, 23 RBIs, 14 runs scored and a 1.069 OPS.
He also has 20 stolen bases this season, with 16 of them coming in 56 games since May 10.
Perhaps Alec Burleson (54.1%), Brent Rooker (55.4%), Brendan Donovan (48.1%) or even Heliot Ramos (45.6%), who is batting .308 with 12 home runs, 33 RBI, 21 runs scored and a .955 OPS in 38 games since June 2nd, are available in your league.
big hit
Alec Burleson, outfielder, Cardinals
He has at least one hit in 12 of his last 14 games while batting .339 with five home runs, 16 RBIs, two stolen bases, nine runs scored and a 1.032 OPS.
Jameson Taillon SP, Cubs
He won his first three games this month with a 3.38 ERA and a 17-1 strikeout-to-walk ratio of .217.
Colt Keith 2B/3B, Tigers
Entering July, he was batting .232, but in the first 13 games this month, he has gone 17-for-46 (.370) with 5 home runs, 13 RBIs, 14 runs scored and an OPS of 1.267, raising his batting average to .253.
Ryan Pepiot, starting pitcher, Rays
He hasn’t allowed more than two runs in any of his past five starts and is 2-1 with a 2.22 ERA while opponents are batting .163.
A big miss
Adley Rutschman (C), Orioles
In the 13 games before the suspension, he struggled with just 5 hits in 46 at-bats (.109), 1 home run, 4 RBIs, 7 strikeouts, and an OPS of .442.
Jake Irvin SP, Nationals
From May 22 to July 4, in nine starts, he had a 5-2 record with a 1.79 ERA and .184 home runs allowed, but in his last two starts, he is 0-2 with a 10.80 ERA, .383 home runs allowed and four home runs allowed.
Noelvi Marte 3B, Reds
Through his first 17 games this season, he struck out in 32.8% of his at-bats while batting .175 with a .463 OPS.
Jordan Hicks SP, Giants
In nine starts since his last win on May 19, he is 0-5 with a 5.57 ERA, eight home runs allowed, 19 walks and a .302 batting average against opponents.
Check your swing
– He didn’t get a win in his first two starts after going on the disabled list, but he didn’t allow an earned run and only two hits in those two starts. In those starts, he struck out 11 batters, had a 16 percent strikeout rate and a .056 batting average. Is this a sign of things to come in the second half?
Taj Bradley is walking 3.16 batters per nine innings this season, but in his past seven starts prior to Saturday’s start he was 3-1 with a 1.07 ERA, 53 strikeouts, a .187 batting average allowed and a 13 percent strikeout rate. He walked 15 times during that time.
– Tyler Stephenson was the most-introduced catcher in ESPN leagues this week after going 11-for-33 (.333) with four home runs, 10 RBI, seven runs scored and a 1.171 OPS in the eight games before the break.
– In 18 starts before the break, Astros’ Ronel Blanco allowed three or more runs twice as a starter. He had a 9-4 record, 6th-best ERA (2.56), WHIP (0.97), and 1st-best opponents’ batting average (.169), while striking out 8.3 batters per 9 innings. Unfortunately, the 30-year-old pitcher seemed to get lucky, ranking 5th in walk rate (9.8%), 6th in home runs allowed, and his xERA (3.56) was one point higher than his actual ERA. His FIP (4.42), xFIP (4.21), stranded strikeout rate (86.3%), and BaBIP (.178) all point to a decline in the second half of the season.
Michael Toglia had a poor first half season, striking out 31.3 percent of his at-bats and batting just .197, but he hit seven home runs in the 10 games before the Midsummer Classic and 12 in 28 games since June 15.
This week’s team name
Chunky Muncy
