Kimi Antonelli recently secured a win in Austin during the United States Grand Prix, bringing him closer to his first F1 Drivers’ Championship as he heads to Mexico for the forthcoming race.
Currently, Antonelli leads the standings with 365 points, which gives him a 123-point advantage over teammate George Russell, who stands at 242 points, and Lewis Hamilton, a former Mercedes driver, at 241 points. With five races still ahead and a total of 125 points available, only these three drivers are in the running for the championship.
This situation emphasizes just how near Antonelli is to claiming the title.
So, how can he secure it in Mexico City?
Taking care of it himself
The easiest route for Antonelli is this: if he finishes ninth or better in the Mexico City Grand Prix, he will earn the F1 Drivers’ Championship, regardless of the performances of Hamilton or Russell. For instance, if Russell wins in Mexico City, he’ll rack up 267 points, but Antonelli’s ninth-place finish would boost him to 367.
That creates a significant 100-point gap, especially when considering the maximum available points in the remaining races.
Interestingly, Antonelli’s victory in Austin marked his ninth Grand Prix win this season. If Russell wins this weekend, it would be his fourth win; even if he sweeps the remaining races and Antonelli scores no further points, they’d finish tied on points (367), but Antonelli would still clinch the title based on his higher number of wins—nine versus Russell’s eight.
The same logic applies to Hamilton, who is just a bit behind Russell. For Antonelli, finishing in tenth place would clinch him the title if Hamilton wins the race. A tenth-place finish would earn him 366 points while Hamilton’s win would bring him to 266.
In this case, we return to the tiebreaker situation, just as with Russell.
Simply put, if Antonelli finishes ninth or better, the championship is his, regardless of who wins. If he finishes tenth, he secures the title as long as Russell doesn’t take the win. A win by Russell would give him 267 points, leaving Antonelli with 366, thus still keeping the chase alive for Russell.
Antonelli has only missed out on points in two races this year, showcasing his consistency.
Nonetheless, there’s another route for Antonelli to claim the title, irrespective of his own finish.
If someone aside from Russell or Hamilton claims victory in Mexico City, that opens the door for Antonelli.
The scenarios discussed require either Hamilton or Russell to win the Mexico City Grand Prix to stretch the championship into another week. But, for instance, if Max Verstappen were to win, Antonelli could still emerge as the champion even with a non-points finish.
For example, if Verstappen wins, Russell takes second, and Antonelli finishes without earning points, Russell would accumulate 18 points, raising his total to 260. Antonelli would remain at 365, maintaining a 105-point lead over Russell with four races still to go. That would effectively seal the championship for Antonelli.
Of course, there’s an underlying concern here.
You could argue that, in a way, Antonelli may have already clinched the title, at least technically.
The final two races are planned to take place in Qatar and Abu Dhabi. However, due to ongoing conflicts in those regions, there’s a possibility that these events could be canceled.
This scenario leaves only three races remaining: Mexico City, Brazil, and Las Vegas. Should it come down to just those three, that yields a maximum of 75 points available.
With his current 123-point lead, Antonelli could already be crowned the F1 Drivers’ Champion in such a case.
Now, if F1 and the FIA were to cancel the two races but include a race in Imola instead, which has been mentioned as a possibility, that would mean four races left and a total of 100 points to be earned.
Again, under that scenario, Antonelli would still be the F1 Drivers’ Champion, given his 123-point lead.
The leadership insists that the scheduled races will proceed as planned, but if changes arise, Antonelli might very well already be the champion.
