Last summer, the Dodgers faced a tough stretch that almost caused them to lose the NL West. Now, with the Padres set to play in two of their next three series, they may be close to clinching another division title soon.
This is the backdrop as the Dodgers prepare for their series opener against the Padres at Petco Park on Friday night. It marks the first of seven matchups over the next ten days, with the Padres returning to Dodger Stadium for a four-game series starting next Thursday.
Currently, the Dodgers hold a nine-game lead over the Padres in the division. Fangraphs’ computer model gives them over a 99% chance of finishing first. With half the season still left, the competitive atmosphere of the earlier months seems largely absent now.
One has to wonder if the Padres might be able to upset the Dodgers at this point. Between July 4 and August 13 last year, the Dodgers lost their nine-game lead and fell briefly to second place. They struggled for a while, reminiscent of last year’s performance, before stabilizing and claiming their second consecutive World Series title.
Nonetheless, if a similar downfall doesn’t occur this season, the Padres will have several chances to challenge the Dodgers for the NL West title, possibly even starting their preparations for postseason success.
This year’s Dodgers appear less vulnerable than last year’s squad, and the Padres, despite sweeping the Braves this week, don’t seem particularly threatening.
Let’s look at the Dodgers. They went through a rough patch last year, going 12-21 from early July to August, primarily due to a worn-out bullpen and what many considered to be the league’s worst offense during that phase.
This year, though, their relief pitchers aren’t facing similar strains; they throw the fewest innings in the league. While there have been recent challenges, the bullpen is becoming healthier, with some key players returning soon. The offense has also been hit by injuries but remains one of the top groups in MLB, boasting solid batting averages and runs scored statistics.
Shohei Ohtani looks poised for another MVP season, and Dodgers players like Freddie Freeman and Max Muncy show clear signs of All-Star potential. Mookie Betts is beginning to find his rhythm after dealing with injury issues earlier this season.
On the other hand, the Padres have seen their earlier good fortune in close games start to wane. After a strong start to the season, they now sit at 13-19, struggling offensively and dealing with inconsistencies in their starting rotation.
Still, this doesn’t entirely eliminate the Padres from contention. They’ve made impressive comebacks before and could see changes from their aggressive GM at the trade deadline. This week, they host the Dodgers, who come into the series riding a winning streak after taking three straight from the Braves.
This rivalry could either spark the Padres back into the race for the NL West or solidify the Dodgers’ hold on the division before the All-Star break.
