Week 18 NFL Survivor pool strategy with safe, value, trap picks, plus an upset special

January 4, 2025

The 2024-25 NFL regular season is nearing its end. Today is Week 18, which means a playoff spot will be confirmed by the end of the Vikings vs. Lions game. sunday night football. Only two teams will qualify for the playoffs, but 10 of the 14 playoff seeds have yet to be determined.

The mix of teams with nothing, with nothing, and with nothing makes predictions even more difficult. That means if you're still in the NFL Survivor Pool, it's going to be a wild week for predictions.

If you're still alive in Poole, you definitely avoided the Colts last week. They lost a road game to the worst Giants and likely wiped out most of the remaining participants in the survivor pool. Unfortunately, that included me. I thought about acquiring the Bucs, but I was disappointed in choosing the Colts. I even called the Colts a trap pick in my weekly Survivor Pick column, but I chose not to follow my own advice.

Now it's time for Week 18's picks. There's really no such thing as a value pick in Week 18 because you're not saving teams for future weeks. We're going to shake things up a lot this week, considering all the potential problems of predicting who will rest players and who will send starters.

Who will be playing what in Week 18?

starter's rest

chiefs (@Broncos)
invoice (@Patriots)
texans (@Titans)
eagles (vs. Giants)

These four bold teams have secured certain playoff seeds. Several star players will likely get playing time, with Josh Allen maintaining his streak of consecutive starts. However, the Eagles have allowed Saquon Barkley to rest, and while Allen and other starters will play, their availability is expected to be limited.

These four teams are best avoided.

a must-win situation

ravens (vs. Browns)
bengals (@Steelers)
steelers (vs. Bengals)***
falcons (vs. Panthers)
broncos (vs. Chiefs)
buccaneers (vs. Saints)
dolphin (@Jets)

Baltimore and Pittsburgh have already advanced to the playoffs, but a district title would give them a bye. The rest of the bold teams are going straight ahead as they are competing just to make the playoffs.

One note about the Steelers. The Ravens will play the Browns on Saturday afternoon, and the Steelers will face the Bengals on Saturday night. If Baltimore loses, Pittsburgh will play for the district title. If the Ravens win, the Steelers will be competing for seeding among the wild-card teams. Maybe they're still playing to win.

Chance for playoff seeding

commander (@Cowboys)
packers (vs. Bears)
charger (@Raiders)
rams (vs. Seahawks)

All four of these teams qualify for the playoffs, but could move around in the bracket. There will still be room for all four to play, as there are some tougher matchups in certain spots, and they won't be resting any starters.

Players not listed in the above groups will be excluded from playoff contention.

Recommended ranking of Survivor

We'll be using up 17 teams, which means we'll be running out of some of the best teams available. Still, to help you weigh your best bet heading into Week 18, here's a ranking of the 16 matchups.

Ravens vs. Browns
Bucks are better than Saints
Dolphin surpassing jet plane
Broncos vs. Chiefs
falcons over panthers
charger against raider
Rams beat Seahawks
packers vs bears
colts vs jaguars
Cardinals over 49ers

Out of these top five matchups, I think the one with the best chance of an upset is Panthers vs. Falcons. Atlanta is the better team and has everything to play for, but I'm not going to trust them in Week 18. I think the Ravens, Bucks, and Dolphins are all solid choices. The Broncos should beat a Chiefs team without Mahomes, but it's anyone's guess what kind of magic Kansas City will perform in the final game of the regular season.